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Another bad week for week 5. It's a tough card this week. Too many games to choose from, but I think I can get back on track this week.
Plays:
Minnesota -2.5 at Carolina. This line is way off. I see no reason why Carolina isn't a -3 to 3.5 favorite in this spot. Yet the line has moved from Carolina -1 to Minnesota -2.5. Probably because Kirk Cousins is the most inconsistent QB in the league. Minnesota will be getting Dalvin Cook back this week. Christian Mccaffrey likely out. Despite that offensive explosion by Dallas a couple of weeks ago, Carolina is still #1 vs. the rush and #6 vs. the pass (i'm using fantasy football rankings for this because it's just easier for me). A couple of weeks ago I predicted Minnesota to hang around .500 for most of the season, and I think they go into their bye week at 3-3.
It does give me a slight pause though with the line movement. I picked this game on Sunday Night at +1, and it's moved all the way to -2.5. The vikings just won a game by 2 pts last week, and they should have beaten the Cardinals by 2 pts a couple of weeks before that. But I would never buy pts, especially on a -2.5.
LA Chargers +3 at Baltimore. The initial lean was Baltimore here, but I've had a change of heart. The angle many will be looking at is the West Coast going east thing which is true. Both teams are coming into this game off emotional come from behind victories. I think the line is about right in this spot. Baltimore gives a little bit because they're the home team, but the Chargers are the slightly better team. I've backed Baltimore in spots like this before and haven't had much luck. Baltimore is much better as a heavy favorite than a short one, or a short road favorite. LA Chargers have the better offense and the better defense, and I think they get it done in a very close and likely high scoring game.
Cowherd says the team that wins on Monday Night is 4-0 this season next game. True, but that's purely coincidental I think. The team with short rest rest covering. That doesn't make much sense.
Indianapolis -10 vs Houston. Davis Mills finally got his first cover last week, but I don't think he can do it again. The Colts offense is finally getting it together and Wentz is over those two sprained ankles. I said Wentz has played efficiently this season, and he hasn't stopped. 7 TDs and 1 INT. Very consistent. This is a spot where I like the 1-4 team giving 10 plus the hook to another 1-4 team. Indy's defense has taken a step back this season, but they were one of the more opportunistic teams last season. I don't think this will be a complete blowout, but I think Indy covers by the end of the game.
This will be Mills' last start before Tyrod is eligible to return off IR. Not much of a QB controversy here. Houston goes back to Tyrod unless they're content on tanking for Watson's replacement, who isn't going to be in next year's draft.
Seattle +5.5 at Pittsburgh. A bit conflicted about this pick because I'm personally not a fan of Geno Smith. He's not your typical backup QB though. He's managed to hang around in the Seahawks system for many years now so he's not some cheap rookie. The main concern here is Seattle's abysmal defense against the run and the pass. Seattle has one of the worst rush defenses in the league, so I expect a relatively conservative game plan for Old Man Ben. A heavy dose of Najee Harris, but Geno makes enough plays with DK Metcalf to keep it competitive. Pittsburgh had a 24-6 lead with 2 minutes left in the 3rd last week, and came 2 yards away from blowing the game. Denver doesn't exactly have the most explosive offense either. Pittsburgh lets Seattle hang around for the entire game, but goes into their bye week 3-3. Both teams score around 20 points.
Note: The backup QB system is 1-4 ATS and 2-3 SU this season so far. 1-3 ATS/SU if you don't count Heinicke as a backup, who won but didn't cover.
Leans:
LV Raiders +4.5 at Denver. I read on another site when Derek Carr stood for the national anthem a few years ago, his offensive line let him get killed and they got murdered that game. Shows how weak that team chemistry is and how you may not be able to count on them coming together with the drama this week, but most of those players are gone now. I like the Raiders in this spot with the new coach. But Bridgewater and his 73% ATS percentage has lost 2 in a row. Could he make it 3? Not sure if I want to push it, but it's a lean for now.
Miami -3 vs. Jacksonville (Europe). Same old Jags. Doesn't matter who the coach and QB are. Jacksonville typically doesn't get their first win when the books give them a pickem line. It usually takes a few tries for them to get it done. Tua should be back this week, and even though I don't think he's that great, the Dolphins do play better when he's starting.
Detroit +3.5 vs. Cincinnati. Cincy hasn't been a good away team, and Detroit has been right there in most games. Only one where they really crapped the bed was that Chicago game, which was a horrible spot for them with Fields coming off one of the worst games in NFL history. Lookahead spot for Goff vs. Rams next week.
No Plays:
Cleveland -3 vs. Arizona. What the heck is going on with this line? A 3-2 team giving the hook to a 5-0 team who is one of the hottest teams in the league? So apparently there is suppose to be 15-25MPH winds going on during this game. So they expect a lot of running, and Cleveland's Chubb/Hunt combination is light years ahead of the Edmunds/Connor combo that Arizona is trotting out. I believe this line opened at -2.5, then got pushed all the way to a full 3, then moved to the hook. I like Cleveland in this spot, but it's only a lean because Arizona did play like crap last week against the Niners, despite getting the win and the cover. I don't like betting against teams that played badly the week before. Chandler Jones is likely out due to positive COVID test, but it's possible he could play I think. Murray is hurt. This pick is too popular for my taste.
Nick Chubb is out for this game. Which makes even less sense about the line now. There are also rumors of a COVID outbreak for Arizona, which would explain the line completely. The rumors are true, Kliff Kingsbury tested positive for COVID and is out Sunday. The QB Coach is also out. The Defensive Coordinator will be the head coach for the game.
There's so much going on with this game now that I'll probably mark this a no play at this point.
LA Rams -8 at NY Giants. This line was 10 a couple of days ago, and it was an absolute shocker to see a team like the Giants getting 10 at home to anyone. Sure the Giants are 1-4, but they lost by 1 pt. at Washington who is a pretty good team, and they won SU as a 7 pt dog at New Orleans. That's not the type of team that should be getting double digits at home against any team, no matter how good they are. The Giants were right there with Dallas until Daniel Jones got that concussion. I believe the initial 10 line priced in Glennon starting, but Jones practiced limited yesterday no contact. So he's trending towards playing. They also have that young electric rookie Toney and Sterling Shepard coming back this week. I see the Rams going up 10 pretty early in the contest, but the Rams in years past have not done well in spots like this where they tended to play down to their competition. So a slight lean for now, and I may even flip to the other side.
The last factor to me is the lookahead spot here. The Rams and Stafford have the lions on deck for next week. That with the high consensus on the game. I'll look elsewhere. It's a no play for me right now. Daniel Jones has been cleared to play. That's a surprise considering he was taken off on a stretcher last week. Probably why the line opened at 10. Late Update: Darius Slayton is out today. So only Toney and Shepard. Maybe Evan Engram can get into the mix for once.
New England +3.5 vs. Dallas. So New England has won the last 6 vs. Dallas and Dallas hasn't beaten them since the 90s. I'd normally be on a game like this, but I think that SNF game against TB is fresh on people's minds, and they think New England can do it again. There are some teams you just don't keep fading, and Dallas is probably one of them. It's enticing with the line dropping to 3 though.
I was looking at this game on Saturday night, and the line had opened at Dallas -1 and you were able to bet it for about a half day.
Washington +7 vs. Kansas City. Small lean to Washington here. Theoretically Washington plays well every other week, and KC is like 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games. But knowing this team very well over the years, no matter how good Washington is that season, when they play an actual SB contender, they usually shrink during the moment. They're expecting a high scoring game here, but it could be a 27-6 type game. I dunno why I even have Washington here. Probably a no play soon.
My initial lean was to do a KC/Pitt ML to get close to even money, but I ended up going in the opposite direction on both somehow. But I'll fade KC until they can cover 2 games in a row. This is officially a no play for me. Considering both teams are 2-3, KC giving a TD on the road is a bit high for a team that never covers.
Last week 1-3 Plays, 2-0 Leans, and funny enough my no plays went 3-1.
2020 Season
5-8 Plays
4-5 Leans
Plays:
Minnesota -2.5 at Carolina. This line is way off. I see no reason why Carolina isn't a -3 to 3.5 favorite in this spot. Yet the line has moved from Carolina -1 to Minnesota -2.5. Probably because Kirk Cousins is the most inconsistent QB in the league. Minnesota will be getting Dalvin Cook back this week. Christian Mccaffrey likely out. Despite that offensive explosion by Dallas a couple of weeks ago, Carolina is still #1 vs. the rush and #6 vs. the pass (i'm using fantasy football rankings for this because it's just easier for me). A couple of weeks ago I predicted Minnesota to hang around .500 for most of the season, and I think they go into their bye week at 3-3.
It does give me a slight pause though with the line movement. I picked this game on Sunday Night at +1, and it's moved all the way to -2.5. The vikings just won a game by 2 pts last week, and they should have beaten the Cardinals by 2 pts a couple of weeks before that. But I would never buy pts, especially on a -2.5.
LA Chargers +3 at Baltimore. The initial lean was Baltimore here, but I've had a change of heart. The angle many will be looking at is the West Coast going east thing which is true. Both teams are coming into this game off emotional come from behind victories. I think the line is about right in this spot. Baltimore gives a little bit because they're the home team, but the Chargers are the slightly better team. I've backed Baltimore in spots like this before and haven't had much luck. Baltimore is much better as a heavy favorite than a short one, or a short road favorite. LA Chargers have the better offense and the better defense, and I think they get it done in a very close and likely high scoring game.
Cowherd says the team that wins on Monday Night is 4-0 this season next game. True, but that's purely coincidental I think. The team with short rest rest covering. That doesn't make much sense.
Indianapolis -10 vs Houston. Davis Mills finally got his first cover last week, but I don't think he can do it again. The Colts offense is finally getting it together and Wentz is over those two sprained ankles. I said Wentz has played efficiently this season, and he hasn't stopped. 7 TDs and 1 INT. Very consistent. This is a spot where I like the 1-4 team giving 10 plus the hook to another 1-4 team. Indy's defense has taken a step back this season, but they were one of the more opportunistic teams last season. I don't think this will be a complete blowout, but I think Indy covers by the end of the game.
This will be Mills' last start before Tyrod is eligible to return off IR. Not much of a QB controversy here. Houston goes back to Tyrod unless they're content on tanking for Watson's replacement, who isn't going to be in next year's draft.
Seattle +5.5 at Pittsburgh. A bit conflicted about this pick because I'm personally not a fan of Geno Smith. He's not your typical backup QB though. He's managed to hang around in the Seahawks system for many years now so he's not some cheap rookie. The main concern here is Seattle's abysmal defense against the run and the pass. Seattle has one of the worst rush defenses in the league, so I expect a relatively conservative game plan for Old Man Ben. A heavy dose of Najee Harris, but Geno makes enough plays with DK Metcalf to keep it competitive. Pittsburgh had a 24-6 lead with 2 minutes left in the 3rd last week, and came 2 yards away from blowing the game. Denver doesn't exactly have the most explosive offense either. Pittsburgh lets Seattle hang around for the entire game, but goes into their bye week 3-3. Both teams score around 20 points.
Note: The backup QB system is 1-4 ATS and 2-3 SU this season so far. 1-3 ATS/SU if you don't count Heinicke as a backup, who won but didn't cover.
Leans:
LV Raiders +4.5 at Denver. I read on another site when Derek Carr stood for the national anthem a few years ago, his offensive line let him get killed and they got murdered that game. Shows how weak that team chemistry is and how you may not be able to count on them coming together with the drama this week, but most of those players are gone now. I like the Raiders in this spot with the new coach. But Bridgewater and his 73% ATS percentage has lost 2 in a row. Could he make it 3? Not sure if I want to push it, but it's a lean for now.
Miami -3 vs. Jacksonville (Europe). Same old Jags. Doesn't matter who the coach and QB are. Jacksonville typically doesn't get their first win when the books give them a pickem line. It usually takes a few tries for them to get it done. Tua should be back this week, and even though I don't think he's that great, the Dolphins do play better when he's starting.
Detroit +3.5 vs. Cincinnati. Cincy hasn't been a good away team, and Detroit has been right there in most games. Only one where they really crapped the bed was that Chicago game, which was a horrible spot for them with Fields coming off one of the worst games in NFL history. Lookahead spot for Goff vs. Rams next week.
No Plays:
Cleveland -3 vs. Arizona. What the heck is going on with this line? A 3-2 team giving the hook to a 5-0 team who is one of the hottest teams in the league? So apparently there is suppose to be 15-25MPH winds going on during this game. So they expect a lot of running, and Cleveland's Chubb/Hunt combination is light years ahead of the Edmunds/Connor combo that Arizona is trotting out. I believe this line opened at -2.5, then got pushed all the way to a full 3, then moved to the hook. I like Cleveland in this spot, but it's only a lean because Arizona did play like crap last week against the Niners, despite getting the win and the cover. I don't like betting against teams that played badly the week before. Chandler Jones is likely out due to positive COVID test, but it's possible he could play I think. Murray is hurt. This pick is too popular for my taste.
Nick Chubb is out for this game. Which makes even less sense about the line now. There are also rumors of a COVID outbreak for Arizona, which would explain the line completely. The rumors are true, Kliff Kingsbury tested positive for COVID and is out Sunday. The QB Coach is also out. The Defensive Coordinator will be the head coach for the game.
There's so much going on with this game now that I'll probably mark this a no play at this point.
LA Rams -8 at NY Giants. This line was 10 a couple of days ago, and it was an absolute shocker to see a team like the Giants getting 10 at home to anyone. Sure the Giants are 1-4, but they lost by 1 pt. at Washington who is a pretty good team, and they won SU as a 7 pt dog at New Orleans. That's not the type of team that should be getting double digits at home against any team, no matter how good they are. The Giants were right there with Dallas until Daniel Jones got that concussion. I believe the initial 10 line priced in Glennon starting, but Jones practiced limited yesterday no contact. So he's trending towards playing. They also have that young electric rookie Toney and Sterling Shepard coming back this week. I see the Rams going up 10 pretty early in the contest, but the Rams in years past have not done well in spots like this where they tended to play down to their competition. So a slight lean for now, and I may even flip to the other side.
The last factor to me is the lookahead spot here. The Rams and Stafford have the lions on deck for next week. That with the high consensus on the game. I'll look elsewhere. It's a no play for me right now. Daniel Jones has been cleared to play. That's a surprise considering he was taken off on a stretcher last week. Probably why the line opened at 10. Late Update: Darius Slayton is out today. So only Toney and Shepard. Maybe Evan Engram can get into the mix for once.
New England +3.5 vs. Dallas. So New England has won the last 6 vs. Dallas and Dallas hasn't beaten them since the 90s. I'd normally be on a game like this, but I think that SNF game against TB is fresh on people's minds, and they think New England can do it again. There are some teams you just don't keep fading, and Dallas is probably one of them. It's enticing with the line dropping to 3 though.
I was looking at this game on Saturday night, and the line had opened at Dallas -1 and you were able to bet it for about a half day.
Washington +7 vs. Kansas City. Small lean to Washington here. Theoretically Washington plays well every other week, and KC is like 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games. But knowing this team very well over the years, no matter how good Washington is that season, when they play an actual SB contender, they usually shrink during the moment. They're expecting a high scoring game here, but it could be a 27-6 type game. I dunno why I even have Washington here. Probably a no play soon.
My initial lean was to do a KC/Pitt ML to get close to even money, but I ended up going in the opposite direction on both somehow. But I'll fade KC until they can cover 2 games in a row. This is officially a no play for me. Considering both teams are 2-3, KC giving a TD on the road is a bit high for a team that never covers.
Last week 1-3 Plays, 2-0 Leans, and funny enough my no plays went 3-1.
2020 Season
5-8 Plays
4-5 Leans
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