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Had the worst week I've had in a long time last week. Could have just kept it simple and taken New England, NY Jets, and Chicago, but sometimes I don't even have the guts to pick certain games. When you got out on a limb sometimes like I did with Houston last week, sometimes you look like a fool. In the end it's just one game, and you're either right or you're wrong. On to the picks. As always, this post will be revised many times before kickoff on Sunday.
Plays:
New Orleans -2.5 at Washington. A couple of inconsistent teams playing each other. New Orleans had another dud last week after creaming New England the week before. Washington had the miracle cover on a screen pass when the smart thing to do would have been to run the clock down to 5 seconds and kick the FG. I think it's telling that New Orleans is a road favorite here when the line should be closer to a pickem, or Washington slightly favored. Heinicke has gone above and beyond expectations in his 4 starts. But that gunslinger mentality is going to catch up to him, because he's not his idol Brett Favre. He was lucky to underthrow a 50/50 ball and have his receiver come back to get it for a TD. He was lucky on that screen pass to throw across his body and it work out. If you want to think logically, I'll compare teams. QB is almost a tie, but I give it to Winston because he has more experience. O-Line probably New Orleans by a hair, but Washington has a pro bowler. RB I give to the Saints and Kamara. Receivers I give to Washington because Mclaurin is a special player. Defense is probably even. New Orleans plays better defense as a team, but Washington has Chase Young. I think New Orleans gets the win and the cover.
NY Giants +7.5 at Dallas and OVER 52. I actually think the Giants are a live dog in this matchup. And one thing Dallas is good at doing is keeping the score competitive. The Giants opened up the playbook a little bit last week with some deep throws. I thought that Daniel Jones was the same QB we've seen in the past, but Cowherd also mentioned that Jones has really cleaned up his turnovers. Last week they answered against New Orleans, and if they can score on New Orleans, they should be able to score on Dallas's swiss cheese defense. The media is also starting to fall in love with Dallas again. They're acknowledging that Dallas has the team to back up the hype now of being America's Team.
I will be playing the NY Giants plus the points. The total I will mark as a LEAN for now.
Miami +10 at Tampa Bay. Not sure what was going on with Brady on SNF. I think TB has a bit of point spread inflation and people think they're better than they are because of the SB run. Last year Tampa Bay was an 11-5 team, so they were good but not exactly dominant. It's hard to cap Brissett as a QB sometimes. You know he's a capable game manager, but we don't know if the game is going to get out of hand or not. I may swap this +10 with Detroit instead though. I typically only like to bet the backup QB for the first game.
San Francisco +5.5 at Arizona. Trey Lance is very likely starting this game. So far backup/rookie QBs have not been good this season. Lance had some good stats last week, but apparently he didn't play that well. He had the bulk of his stats on a blown coverage to Deebo Samuel. SF has a bye week next week. Doesn't it feel inevitable that they will go into that bye week with a quarterback controversy? Arizona has been playing well, but I've said before that they are very inconsistent. I'd prefer if it were a non-division opponent that wasn't that good for the letdown spot following the big Rams victory last week, but I'll back the backup in this spot. Trey Lance's athleticism and San Fran's next man up zone blocking scheme could keep Murray off the field even to keep it close.
I'm not sure if it counts, but I was checking the lines around 4 PM on Sunday, and SF was only +2.5 at the time. Not sure if that's an official number, but perhaps oddsmakers thought this game was much closer to a pickem than it is now. I'm calling for the outright win here, but I never give up 3 and the hook or more.
George Kittle is out for this game. Still a play for now though, but less confident about it.
Buffalo +3 at Kansas City. This is the same line as the AFC Championship game last year where KC covered pretty handily, but Kansas City has slightly lost a step, and Buffalo is probably slightly better this year. The line would probably be higher if KC wasn't so awful against the spread for about a year. This is a very trendy pick this week, so I'm proceeding with caution, and am actually planning on hedging it somehow.
Cleveland +2.5 at LA Chargers. I was wrong about the Browns last week. That was really impressive how they blanked the Vikings after the first drive for the rest of the game. The Chargers looked good on MNF and I think people remember that, rather than the snoozefest the Browns went through on Sunday. Also, Baker has a partially torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder apparently. He's in a contract year though, definitely something to prove.
LA Chargers defense in the top 5 against the pass. Middle of the pack against the run. Browns in the top 5 against both.
Leans:
Pittsburgh +1.5 vs. Denver. The popular Denver pick last week failed. Bridgewater and his 73% streak ats. I saw someone else mention this. So Pitt has been left for dead after being embarrassed by Cincy, who is less than a FG dog to Green Bay this week. Then lost to Green Bay by 10. Yet if they win this game, then beat a Geno Smith lead Seattle team next week, they roll into their bye at 3-3. Sounds about right to me.
Detroit +10 at Minnesota. I'm hesitant on this one with Kirk Cousin's hot and cold nature. Last week Minnesota scored a TD on the opening drive, then didn't score again for the rest of the game. Detroit's defense should be more accommodating this week. Like I said before, I don't think Detroit is that bad of a team. They're not that much worse off with Goff at QB in my opinion. A 1-3 team giving 10 to an 0-4 team gives me a little pause though. But I think it could be one of those rare cases where Vegas makes you overthink it and wants you to lay the points.
No Plays:
Chicago +5.5 at LV Raiders. Looking into this game. I'd probably do a live bet on Chicago if San Francisco was losing badly to Arizona. But no play before the game.
San Fran / Arizona OVER 50. As with my SF pick, I think Trey Lance plays well enough to give them a full blown QB controversy going into the bye week. I think every top draft pick Quarterback is starting now right? Lawrence, Fields, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones. Arizona's defense reminds me of the Chiefs of years past. Not a great defense, but some playmakers, and the offense is so potent that the other team has to overcompensate to try to and keep up, which leads to turnovers.
Edit: I don't like that the line has moved down 4.5 pts since the open. Maybe it's because of Trey Lance, but Jimmy G has been hurt since halftime of the last game. In order for SF to win the game, it probably has to go under as well. So likely no play.
LA Chargers / Cleveland OVER 47. These teams combined to score 10 total points in the second half of their games last week against teams with bad defenses. Not really liking that the total has dropped since the open though. Probably because the Chargers are 0-4 O/U this season.
No play here. I've decided to lean Cleveland, in hopes that they shut down Herbert and his big play ability. Mike Williams comes back down to earth again this week.
Philly +3 at Carolina. Cowherd was pretty right with his commentary last week. He said Darnold plays half as well in the second half than he does in the first. We had undefeated Denver and Carolina playing their first games against real competition. And neither of them came through, but Denver had an excuse because their QB got hurt. This is a 3-1 team giving 3 to a 1-3 team. I have Jalen Hurts on one of my fantasy football teams, and I've started him confidently every week this season. No shame in losing at Kansas City, at Dallas, and against San Francisco.
No play for now. With the addition of Gilmore, Carolina has an even stronger defense than they had before. They gave Dallas all they could handle for a half. I may move this up to a lean before kickoff. But it's too iffy to make "play" status.
Something doesn't really feel right as I'm taking all away teams and all underdogs. So I'll narrow it down a bit more before Sunday.
2021 Season:
4-6 Plays
2-5 Leans
Plays:
New Orleans -2.5 at Washington. A couple of inconsistent teams playing each other. New Orleans had another dud last week after creaming New England the week before. Washington had the miracle cover on a screen pass when the smart thing to do would have been to run the clock down to 5 seconds and kick the FG. I think it's telling that New Orleans is a road favorite here when the line should be closer to a pickem, or Washington slightly favored. Heinicke has gone above and beyond expectations in his 4 starts. But that gunslinger mentality is going to catch up to him, because he's not his idol Brett Favre. He was lucky to underthrow a 50/50 ball and have his receiver come back to get it for a TD. He was lucky on that screen pass to throw across his body and it work out. If you want to think logically, I'll compare teams. QB is almost a tie, but I give it to Winston because he has more experience. O-Line probably New Orleans by a hair, but Washington has a pro bowler. RB I give to the Saints and Kamara. Receivers I give to Washington because Mclaurin is a special player. Defense is probably even. New Orleans plays better defense as a team, but Washington has Chase Young. I think New Orleans gets the win and the cover.
NY Giants +7.5 at Dallas and OVER 52. I actually think the Giants are a live dog in this matchup. And one thing Dallas is good at doing is keeping the score competitive. The Giants opened up the playbook a little bit last week with some deep throws. I thought that Daniel Jones was the same QB we've seen in the past, but Cowherd also mentioned that Jones has really cleaned up his turnovers. Last week they answered against New Orleans, and if they can score on New Orleans, they should be able to score on Dallas's swiss cheese defense. The media is also starting to fall in love with Dallas again. They're acknowledging that Dallas has the team to back up the hype now of being America's Team.
I will be playing the NY Giants plus the points. The total I will mark as a LEAN for now.
Miami +10 at Tampa Bay. Not sure what was going on with Brady on SNF. I think TB has a bit of point spread inflation and people think they're better than they are because of the SB run. Last year Tampa Bay was an 11-5 team, so they were good but not exactly dominant. It's hard to cap Brissett as a QB sometimes. You know he's a capable game manager, but we don't know if the game is going to get out of hand or not. I may swap this +10 with Detroit instead though. I typically only like to bet the backup QB for the first game.
San Francisco +5.5 at Arizona. Trey Lance is very likely starting this game. So far backup/rookie QBs have not been good this season. Lance had some good stats last week, but apparently he didn't play that well. He had the bulk of his stats on a blown coverage to Deebo Samuel. SF has a bye week next week. Doesn't it feel inevitable that they will go into that bye week with a quarterback controversy? Arizona has been playing well, but I've said before that they are very inconsistent. I'd prefer if it were a non-division opponent that wasn't that good for the letdown spot following the big Rams victory last week, but I'll back the backup in this spot. Trey Lance's athleticism and San Fran's next man up zone blocking scheme could keep Murray off the field even to keep it close.
I'm not sure if it counts, but I was checking the lines around 4 PM on Sunday, and SF was only +2.5 at the time. Not sure if that's an official number, but perhaps oddsmakers thought this game was much closer to a pickem than it is now. I'm calling for the outright win here, but I never give up 3 and the hook or more.
George Kittle is out for this game. Still a play for now though, but less confident about it.
Buffalo +3 at Kansas City. This is the same line as the AFC Championship game last year where KC covered pretty handily, but Kansas City has slightly lost a step, and Buffalo is probably slightly better this year. The line would probably be higher if KC wasn't so awful against the spread for about a year. This is a very trendy pick this week, so I'm proceeding with caution, and am actually planning on hedging it somehow.
Cleveland +2.5 at LA Chargers. I was wrong about the Browns last week. That was really impressive how they blanked the Vikings after the first drive for the rest of the game. The Chargers looked good on MNF and I think people remember that, rather than the snoozefest the Browns went through on Sunday. Also, Baker has a partially torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder apparently. He's in a contract year though, definitely something to prove.
LA Chargers defense in the top 5 against the pass. Middle of the pack against the run. Browns in the top 5 against both.
Leans:
Pittsburgh +1.5 vs. Denver. The popular Denver pick last week failed. Bridgewater and his 73% streak ats. I saw someone else mention this. So Pitt has been left for dead after being embarrassed by Cincy, who is less than a FG dog to Green Bay this week. Then lost to Green Bay by 10. Yet if they win this game, then beat a Geno Smith lead Seattle team next week, they roll into their bye at 3-3. Sounds about right to me.
Detroit +10 at Minnesota. I'm hesitant on this one with Kirk Cousin's hot and cold nature. Last week Minnesota scored a TD on the opening drive, then didn't score again for the rest of the game. Detroit's defense should be more accommodating this week. Like I said before, I don't think Detroit is that bad of a team. They're not that much worse off with Goff at QB in my opinion. A 1-3 team giving 10 to an 0-4 team gives me a little pause though. But I think it could be one of those rare cases where Vegas makes you overthink it and wants you to lay the points.
No Plays:
Chicago +5.5 at LV Raiders. Looking into this game. I'd probably do a live bet on Chicago if San Francisco was losing badly to Arizona. But no play before the game.
San Fran / Arizona OVER 50. As with my SF pick, I think Trey Lance plays well enough to give them a full blown QB controversy going into the bye week. I think every top draft pick Quarterback is starting now right? Lawrence, Fields, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones. Arizona's defense reminds me of the Chiefs of years past. Not a great defense, but some playmakers, and the offense is so potent that the other team has to overcompensate to try to and keep up, which leads to turnovers.
Edit: I don't like that the line has moved down 4.5 pts since the open. Maybe it's because of Trey Lance, but Jimmy G has been hurt since halftime of the last game. In order for SF to win the game, it probably has to go under as well. So likely no play.
LA Chargers / Cleveland OVER 47. These teams combined to score 10 total points in the second half of their games last week against teams with bad defenses. Not really liking that the total has dropped since the open though. Probably because the Chargers are 0-4 O/U this season.
No play here. I've decided to lean Cleveland, in hopes that they shut down Herbert and his big play ability. Mike Williams comes back down to earth again this week.
Philly +3 at Carolina. Cowherd was pretty right with his commentary last week. He said Darnold plays half as well in the second half than he does in the first. We had undefeated Denver and Carolina playing their first games against real competition. And neither of them came through, but Denver had an excuse because their QB got hurt. This is a 3-1 team giving 3 to a 1-3 team. I have Jalen Hurts on one of my fantasy football teams, and I've started him confidently every week this season. No shame in losing at Kansas City, at Dallas, and against San Francisco.
No play for now. With the addition of Gilmore, Carolina has an even stronger defense than they had before. They gave Dallas all they could handle for a half. I may move this up to a lean before kickoff. But it's too iffy to make "play" status.
Something doesn't really feel right as I'm taking all away teams and all underdogs. So I'll narrow it down a bit more before Sunday.
2021 Season:
4-6 Plays
2-5 Leans