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I'm on a horrid losing streak. Last week I should have kept my Miami pick, but instead I got suckered into taking Seattle. So 0-2 last week.
I'm a bit flustered, so I'm going to take College FB Saturday off and focus on NFL for Sunday. I'm writing this at almost 3 AM, but I want to get my thoughts together. This post will likely be revised several times.
Plays:
Pittsburgh +6.5 at Green Bay. The Steelers and Bears were arguably the worst teams to play last weekend. The fans and media have pretty much left Big Ben for dead. I know he had that pectoral injury, and I'll need to look into that. But the Steelers have always had a good defense. And after a performance like last week, I'm sure Mike Tomlin was on them all week. They should be ready.
Edit: So Big Ben had was a full participant in practice the last couple of days this week. As were his top two receivers Juju and Diontae Johnson. TJ Watt will be playing as well. Chase Claypool is confirmed out for the game. And though I do like him as an X-Factor playmaker, he's not one of Big Ben's primary targets. Probably why he was so fickle last week. Claypool was playing injured and he was missing his guys. Diontae Johnson is actually his favorite target, but he drops too many passes. Juju is his short yardage crossing route receiver who has good hands.
Also note that it's suppose to rain during this game. Normally Rodgers is very good in bad weather, but I typically associate that with snow rather than rain.
Houston +17.5 at Buffalo. This is one of those games where you're either right or dead wrong. It's supposedly a system play from a respected capper on another site. It's rare for a line to get this high. Typically dogs in the 20+ point range have had a good history of covering. Last year Kansas City was like -21 and they did cover, but I remember the first half being puzzling because the other team managed to give them all they could handle. That rookie QB really got put in a bad situation last game on a short week against a top defense in Carolina. The coach said he's opening the playbook a bit more this week. I even watched some of this guy's college highlights last week. Not a big arm, but he throws a pretty ball. He also able to score a TD last week in like 2 minutes with the clock ticking down. Also keep in mind that Buffalo was on the wrong side of the biggest upset in NFL history a couple of years ago, and Josh Allen was quarterbacking. I believe they were like -18 or something to Minnesota and lost the game outright. For kicks, I added Buffalo ML to my parlay and it actually increased the payout quite a bit like 10-20% or something. (EDIT: It was actually the opposite. Minny was favored 18 and Buffalo won outright). I see a lot of people doing the same thing, and when I do that there is usually at least a scare of some sort. Hopefully Buffalo doesn't pour it on in the second half.
Team totals for this game are 31.5 for Buffalo and 14 for Houston. I think that's about right for Houston. Probably in the 13-14 range. But I don't think Buffalo gets past 31 personally. After they put 43 on Washington's defense last week. Washington's coach called them selfish and sack hungry (in particular Chase Young). Leaving open lanes and not playing as a team. A little team defense should keep Buffalo under the team total. Also, Chiefs are on deck for the Bills if you believe in lookahead spots.
Buffalo -20.5 alternate line is +130. If you think Buffalo will blow them out, what's +40% on the line for 3 more pts through non-key numbers?
Minnesota +2.5 vs. Cleveland. My fault for thinking the Vikings could start 0-3 this season. The Vikings actually have a pretty talented roster. And though Kirk Cousins is not elite, he could start and succeed for the majority of teams in this league. Calling him a game manager isn't giving him enough credit. The Vikings should be in the playoff hunt every season with the amount of talent they have on offense. In order to do that, I see them hanging around .500 most of the way. They get to 2-2 this week. Cleveland was a sleeper team that got into the playoffs last season, but I don't think they'll be able to live up to the high expectations of this season. Not speaking much about the matchup, but I see them both being about .500 squads after 4 games.
Leans: Plenty of leans this week. Some will be moved up into plays, but I'll do that later.
Carolina +4.5 at Dallas. I didn't catch any of MNF, but I saw that Dallas pretty much destroyed Philly. I think the line is a bit high in this scenario, but Dallas has been giving too many pts and getting the extra benefit of the doubt for years. How is Carolina suppose to keep up with Dallas' high powered offense when they don't even have Mccaffrey? Mike Davis did quite the fill in job last season, filling up that stat sheet. Though he has been doing alright in Atlanta this season, he's really just a guy. Another "guy" should fill in just fine. Just so happens his fill in is gonna be a guy named Chubba
.
Denver +1 vs Baltimore. Piggybacking on my Denver/Baltimore over pick. I do like Denver in this spot. I think I pointed out how much of a covering machine Teddy Bridgewater was a couple of years ago when he was on the Saints. I've seen people catching on this week that Bridgwater has covered 73% of the games he's started. Quite the record. Though I'm a bit weary about how Denver is a small dog in this matchup standing there at 3-0. It could be the public mesmerized by Lamar Jackson, and the books knowing that and trying to get even money. But I'll need to look into this game more. Lean Denver for now but I think Teddy is catching on with everyone and the cats out the bag. I do think Denver should be favored in this matchup, but it would have been a pickem type game either way, so I don't really think it matters who's giving the points.
LA Rams ML vs. Arizona. I'm seeing around +188 on Arizona ML that seems like a ton of value on what should be a pretty live dog with MVP candidate Kyler Murray at the helm. I had him on my fantasy team last year, and he really piles on the points vs. crappy teams or crappy defenses. But the better teams usually keep him in check. Make a note to fade the outcome of this first meeting in the second one.
Denver/Baltimore OVER 44. A bit of a scary pick that reminds me of Iowa last night. Denver is 0-3 O/U this season. Winning games on the backs of their defense. Like Iowa, who is ranked #5 in the country, there are still some serious doubters about this team. Denver could have pushed it a little more the last few weeks, but they haven't had to.
Seattle / SF Over 51.5.Watching that Seattle/Minn game last week, I witnessed one of the worst defensive performances i've seen n a while. Seattle just couldn't stop Minnesota on defense to save their lives. Minnesota was running the ball and getting 5-8 yard chunks at a time with a backup RB. I've never seen a team pick up so many first downs on 3rd down before. Minnesota only punted twice the entire game. They just racked up 70-80 yard scoring drives. I actually do like Seattle a little bit to win this game. It's a must win for them, especially in this division. I think Russell Wilson puts the team on his back and gets the victory, scoring whatever points he needs to score. But I'm just playing the total.
No Plays:
Bears -3 vs. Detroit. Very slight lean here. Mainly due the I believe record setting first start of Justin Fields. Chicago has been in this kind of spot already this season and beaten Cincinnati. This pick will hinge on whether Andy Dalton plays. But it's a very slight lean that I may end up taking off the board. I really don't think the Lions are a bad team, especially not as bad as the media makes them out to be. But that 66 yard FG must have been so deflating last week.
Edit: I'm taking this game off the board. Fields is confirmed starting tomorrow, which is what I would have wanted. However, I've bet a ton of games like this in the past. Two crappy teams and I usually take the home favorite on a short line, and it usually doesn't work out. They usually score in the teens each, but the crappy dog usually wins out. So this is a no play for me now. I would never bet against someone that played that badly the week before, and that was historically bad.
Arizona/LA Rams OVER 54.5. I don't really have an angle on this one. Just kinda like it for the obvious reasons.
Edit: After reviewing some player props on this game, and with my lean on the Rams, I think this could go under. Arizona probably covers if it's a shootout, but I don't think it will be. Kyler Murray does most of his damage on the ground, and the Rams could take that away. Murray is still a great passer, but the run sets up those long passes.
2021 Season
4-3 Plays
2-0 Leans
I'm a bit flustered, so I'm going to take College FB Saturday off and focus on NFL for Sunday. I'm writing this at almost 3 AM, but I want to get my thoughts together. This post will likely be revised several times.
Plays:
Pittsburgh +6.5 at Green Bay. The Steelers and Bears were arguably the worst teams to play last weekend. The fans and media have pretty much left Big Ben for dead. I know he had that pectoral injury, and I'll need to look into that. But the Steelers have always had a good defense. And after a performance like last week, I'm sure Mike Tomlin was on them all week. They should be ready.
Edit: So Big Ben had was a full participant in practice the last couple of days this week. As were his top two receivers Juju and Diontae Johnson. TJ Watt will be playing as well. Chase Claypool is confirmed out for the game. And though I do like him as an X-Factor playmaker, he's not one of Big Ben's primary targets. Probably why he was so fickle last week. Claypool was playing injured and he was missing his guys. Diontae Johnson is actually his favorite target, but he drops too many passes. Juju is his short yardage crossing route receiver who has good hands.
Also note that it's suppose to rain during this game. Normally Rodgers is very good in bad weather, but I typically associate that with snow rather than rain.
Houston +17.5 at Buffalo. This is one of those games where you're either right or dead wrong. It's supposedly a system play from a respected capper on another site. It's rare for a line to get this high. Typically dogs in the 20+ point range have had a good history of covering. Last year Kansas City was like -21 and they did cover, but I remember the first half being puzzling because the other team managed to give them all they could handle. That rookie QB really got put in a bad situation last game on a short week against a top defense in Carolina. The coach said he's opening the playbook a bit more this week. I even watched some of this guy's college highlights last week. Not a big arm, but he throws a pretty ball. He also able to score a TD last week in like 2 minutes with the clock ticking down. Also keep in mind that Buffalo was on the wrong side of the biggest upset in NFL history a couple of years ago, and Josh Allen was quarterbacking. I believe they were like -18 or something to Minnesota and lost the game outright. For kicks, I added Buffalo ML to my parlay and it actually increased the payout quite a bit like 10-20% or something. (EDIT: It was actually the opposite. Minny was favored 18 and Buffalo won outright). I see a lot of people doing the same thing, and when I do that there is usually at least a scare of some sort. Hopefully Buffalo doesn't pour it on in the second half.
Team totals for this game are 31.5 for Buffalo and 14 for Houston. I think that's about right for Houston. Probably in the 13-14 range. But I don't think Buffalo gets past 31 personally. After they put 43 on Washington's defense last week. Washington's coach called them selfish and sack hungry (in particular Chase Young). Leaving open lanes and not playing as a team. A little team defense should keep Buffalo under the team total. Also, Chiefs are on deck for the Bills if you believe in lookahead spots.
Buffalo -20.5 alternate line is +130. If you think Buffalo will blow them out, what's +40% on the line for 3 more pts through non-key numbers?
Minnesota +2.5 vs. Cleveland. My fault for thinking the Vikings could start 0-3 this season. The Vikings actually have a pretty talented roster. And though Kirk Cousins is not elite, he could start and succeed for the majority of teams in this league. Calling him a game manager isn't giving him enough credit. The Vikings should be in the playoff hunt every season with the amount of talent they have on offense. In order to do that, I see them hanging around .500 most of the way. They get to 2-2 this week. Cleveland was a sleeper team that got into the playoffs last season, but I don't think they'll be able to live up to the high expectations of this season. Not speaking much about the matchup, but I see them both being about .500 squads after 4 games.
Leans: Plenty of leans this week. Some will be moved up into plays, but I'll do that later.
Carolina +4.5 at Dallas. I didn't catch any of MNF, but I saw that Dallas pretty much destroyed Philly. I think the line is a bit high in this scenario, but Dallas has been giving too many pts and getting the extra benefit of the doubt for years. How is Carolina suppose to keep up with Dallas' high powered offense when they don't even have Mccaffrey? Mike Davis did quite the fill in job last season, filling up that stat sheet. Though he has been doing alright in Atlanta this season, he's really just a guy. Another "guy" should fill in just fine. Just so happens his fill in is gonna be a guy named Chubba
.Denver +1 vs Baltimore. Piggybacking on my Denver/Baltimore over pick. I do like Denver in this spot. I think I pointed out how much of a covering machine Teddy Bridgewater was a couple of years ago when he was on the Saints. I've seen people catching on this week that Bridgwater has covered 73% of the games he's started. Quite the record. Though I'm a bit weary about how Denver is a small dog in this matchup standing there at 3-0. It could be the public mesmerized by Lamar Jackson, and the books knowing that and trying to get even money. But I'll need to look into this game more. Lean Denver for now but I think Teddy is catching on with everyone and the cats out the bag. I do think Denver should be favored in this matchup, but it would have been a pickem type game either way, so I don't really think it matters who's giving the points.
LA Rams ML vs. Arizona. I'm seeing around +188 on Arizona ML that seems like a ton of value on what should be a pretty live dog with MVP candidate Kyler Murray at the helm. I had him on my fantasy team last year, and he really piles on the points vs. crappy teams or crappy defenses. But the better teams usually keep him in check. Make a note to fade the outcome of this first meeting in the second one.
Denver/Baltimore OVER 44. A bit of a scary pick that reminds me of Iowa last night. Denver is 0-3 O/U this season. Winning games on the backs of their defense. Like Iowa, who is ranked #5 in the country, there are still some serious doubters about this team. Denver could have pushed it a little more the last few weeks, but they haven't had to.
Seattle / SF Over 51.5.Watching that Seattle/Minn game last week, I witnessed one of the worst defensive performances i've seen n a while. Seattle just couldn't stop Minnesota on defense to save their lives. Minnesota was running the ball and getting 5-8 yard chunks at a time with a backup RB. I've never seen a team pick up so many first downs on 3rd down before. Minnesota only punted twice the entire game. They just racked up 70-80 yard scoring drives. I actually do like Seattle a little bit to win this game. It's a must win for them, especially in this division. I think Russell Wilson puts the team on his back and gets the victory, scoring whatever points he needs to score. But I'm just playing the total.
No Plays:
Bears -3 vs. Detroit. Very slight lean here. Mainly due the I believe record setting first start of Justin Fields. Chicago has been in this kind of spot already this season and beaten Cincinnati. This pick will hinge on whether Andy Dalton plays. But it's a very slight lean that I may end up taking off the board. I really don't think the Lions are a bad team, especially not as bad as the media makes them out to be. But that 66 yard FG must have been so deflating last week.
Edit: I'm taking this game off the board. Fields is confirmed starting tomorrow, which is what I would have wanted. However, I've bet a ton of games like this in the past. Two crappy teams and I usually take the home favorite on a short line, and it usually doesn't work out. They usually score in the teens each, but the crappy dog usually wins out. So this is a no play for me now. I would never bet against someone that played that badly the week before, and that was historically bad.
Arizona/LA Rams OVER 54.5. I don't really have an angle on this one. Just kinda like it for the obvious reasons.
Edit: After reviewing some player props on this game, and with my lean on the Rams, I think this could go under. Arizona probably covers if it's a shootout, but I don't think it will be. Kyler Murray does most of his damage on the ground, and the Rams could take that away. Murray is still a great passer, but the run sets up those long passes.
2021 Season
4-3 Plays
2-0 Leans
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