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Busy week. I've been eyeing some games, but haven't really had a real chance to look too much This season I'm mainly playing for fun, but that'll probably change like it usually does. And with everything, if I'm gonna do it, I'm gonna do it the best I can. Probably just do 1 straight bet a week and 1 parlay for fun. These books are getting really competitive on their promos, so that's good for everyone. Even if you already have a book, it's forcing your book to change to compete.
The first few weeks of the season are typically not my specialty. Vegas giving a lot of teams the benefit of the doubt, when they shouldn't be. Square stuff tends to win more. But we'll see what happens. On to the picks.
Thursday I made an unposted play on Dallas which I won't count towards the record. It wasn't an easy pick, but Dak Prescott is slowly becoming a poor man's Russell Wilson in terms of covering, never giving up, and always giving you a fighting chance at the end. If he's got the ball, he's going to move the ball and keep the game close. He's not a quarterback I would want to lay many points to.
I apologize in advance because I'm writing this at like 2 AM.
Picks:
New England -3 vs. Miami. Not much to this one. Even last year, New England had a pretty good defense. Miami's was pretty good as well, but Tua has not impressed me in the least bit as a QB. The 7-9 Patriots are giving 3, and moving towards the hook, against the 10-6 Dolphins from last year. TBH I didn't see much of the preseason, but I did see some Mac Jones highlights, and heard he had some bright moments. Not many headlining moments, but showed that he could make all the throws and run the offense. Apparently he knows the playbook so well that he was teaching it to Cam before his release. Bill probably realizes this team isn't gonna win a SB with the lack of offensive weapons he has, but he's not going to give the team to a rookie if he wasn't ready, and just call it a rebuilding year.
New Orleans +3.5 vs. Green Bay. This is another one of Boiler's picks, but I had this one on my radar for weeks. Winston is the butt of jokes because he throws so many interceptions, or at least he did in Tampa Bay. He was great for fantasy football though, because he had monster stats. The TB teams he played on, much like the TB team from last night, could not be run on, but had mediocre to bad passing defenses. So Winston was basically in a shootout every game.
Winston is a capable QB, and I think he will be one of the surprises during this season, especially after they get Michael Thomas back. Winston has a good defense to lean on and an excellent run game through Kamara that was non-existent in Tampa. Last year the Saints started a Tight End at QB and still won 3 games in a row with him. The pick has more to do with the coach, the totality of the team, the run game, and the culture than just betting on Winston.
Rodgers is probably fine, but that was a lot of offseason drama. He even said he almost retired, so maybe the passion for the game is gone. WOMEN....WEAKEN....LEGS!
Detroit +8.5 vs. San Francisco. I actually didn't think too much of this game until I saw Boiler take it. A lot of what goes into week 1 is offseason hype and perception. The perception is that Matt Stafford was the prize of that trade, and that he finally gets to compete with a contender. Jared Goff was essentially a cast away just to make the numbers work. He's no slouch though, he's made two pro bowls and is younger. The only thing concerning me is that Sean McVay really is an offensive genius. And the big step Goff took the year after Fisher left was because McVay was in Goff's ear pre-snap telling me where to put the ball every down. So which Goff will we see tomorrow? FIsher Goff or McVay Goff? I'll take a shot on the guy that was discarded with something to prove. Though I do think that line is pretty high, especially with the 49ers on the road.
The more I think about this game, the more questionable it gets. The most exciting thing about San Fran this preseason is their rookie QB, who isn't even active. So it's kind of strange to see SF giving the equivalent of 2 TDs if they were home. Let's call this a lean until I say otherwise.
Denver -3 at NY Giants. As a fan of football, I actually preferred strong armed Drew Lock as the QB. Denver was good at surprising people last season and keeping games close people wouldn't have expected. The dynamic changes a bit with Bridgewater as the QB. The teams seem evenly matched, so the Giants should be the ones giving the 3.
Each team has an okay QB, lots of weapons at WR, Giants have the better RB. I'm going with Bridgewater as the consistent game manager who minimizes on mistakes.
Leans:
Kansas City/Cleveland OVER 54.5. The playoff game went way under, and this line is about the same. Only thing that's different is Cleveland should have Odell back. I suppose the total on a KC game can't be set too low, but it should be more like 51.5. Mahommes has the highest book odds of being today's passer with most yardage.
I have other picks but I didn't spend enough time researching them to even make them worthy of posting.
Will update later on if I come up with something, but I will refrain from making any changes after 1 PM.
Good luck this season and have fun everyone!
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2020 Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2019 Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
The first few weeks of the season are typically not my specialty. Vegas giving a lot of teams the benefit of the doubt, when they shouldn't be. Square stuff tends to win more. But we'll see what happens. On to the picks.
Thursday I made an unposted play on Dallas which I won't count towards the record. It wasn't an easy pick, but Dak Prescott is slowly becoming a poor man's Russell Wilson in terms of covering, never giving up, and always giving you a fighting chance at the end. If he's got the ball, he's going to move the ball and keep the game close. He's not a quarterback I would want to lay many points to.
I apologize in advance because I'm writing this at like 2 AM.
Picks:
New England -3 vs. Miami. Not much to this one. Even last year, New England had a pretty good defense. Miami's was pretty good as well, but Tua has not impressed me in the least bit as a QB. The 7-9 Patriots are giving 3, and moving towards the hook, against the 10-6 Dolphins from last year. TBH I didn't see much of the preseason, but I did see some Mac Jones highlights, and heard he had some bright moments. Not many headlining moments, but showed that he could make all the throws and run the offense. Apparently he knows the playbook so well that he was teaching it to Cam before his release. Bill probably realizes this team isn't gonna win a SB with the lack of offensive weapons he has, but he's not going to give the team to a rookie if he wasn't ready, and just call it a rebuilding year.
New Orleans +3.5 vs. Green Bay. This is another one of Boiler's picks, but I had this one on my radar for weeks. Winston is the butt of jokes because he throws so many interceptions, or at least he did in Tampa Bay. He was great for fantasy football though, because he had monster stats. The TB teams he played on, much like the TB team from last night, could not be run on, but had mediocre to bad passing defenses. So Winston was basically in a shootout every game.
Winston is a capable QB, and I think he will be one of the surprises during this season, especially after they get Michael Thomas back. Winston has a good defense to lean on and an excellent run game through Kamara that was non-existent in Tampa. Last year the Saints started a Tight End at QB and still won 3 games in a row with him. The pick has more to do with the coach, the totality of the team, the run game, and the culture than just betting on Winston.
Rodgers is probably fine, but that was a lot of offseason drama. He even said he almost retired, so maybe the passion for the game is gone. WOMEN....WEAKEN....LEGS!
Detroit +8.5 vs. San Francisco. I actually didn't think too much of this game until I saw Boiler take it. A lot of what goes into week 1 is offseason hype and perception. The perception is that Matt Stafford was the prize of that trade, and that he finally gets to compete with a contender. Jared Goff was essentially a cast away just to make the numbers work. He's no slouch though, he's made two pro bowls and is younger. The only thing concerning me is that Sean McVay really is an offensive genius. And the big step Goff took the year after Fisher left was because McVay was in Goff's ear pre-snap telling me where to put the ball every down. So which Goff will we see tomorrow? FIsher Goff or McVay Goff? I'll take a shot on the guy that was discarded with something to prove. Though I do think that line is pretty high, especially with the 49ers on the road.
The more I think about this game, the more questionable it gets. The most exciting thing about San Fran this preseason is their rookie QB, who isn't even active. So it's kind of strange to see SF giving the equivalent of 2 TDs if they were home. Let's call this a lean until I say otherwise.
Denver -3 at NY Giants. As a fan of football, I actually preferred strong armed Drew Lock as the QB. Denver was good at surprising people last season and keeping games close people wouldn't have expected. The dynamic changes a bit with Bridgewater as the QB. The teams seem evenly matched, so the Giants should be the ones giving the 3.
Each team has an okay QB, lots of weapons at WR, Giants have the better RB. I'm going with Bridgewater as the consistent game manager who minimizes on mistakes.
Leans:
Kansas City/Cleveland OVER 54.5. The playoff game went way under, and this line is about the same. Only thing that's different is Cleveland should have Odell back. I suppose the total on a KC game can't be set too low, but it should be more like 51.5. Mahommes has the highest book odds of being today's passer with most yardage.
I have other picks but I didn't spend enough time researching them to even make them worthy of posting.
Will update later on if I come up with something, but I will refrain from making any changes after 1 PM.
Good luck this season and have fun everyone!
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2020 Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2019 Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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