It's Been 15 Years

[V3r1f13d]

Wow, I have been gone for so long only to see that everyone is still here. That's insane. Hello everyone. I stopped all action, just wasn't into it. Bets were small and I made more money working, in the stock market, investing in real estate so I just gave up. Why stress on games. Too time consuming. I've started a family, had kids, how time has flied. Not that anyone cares...

Anyways, I opened an online account since my local guy died (yeah, that's how long it's been) and made a half dime play on Dariush (UFC Fight Night) play for tomorrow.
Checking in to see how you guys like the O\U on the SB, but I dont see much talk about it. I like KC for rigged reasons but I like the Under for actual true action. What do you think? It's been a long time man...not sure, but I'm leaning Under.

[recovering77]

Welcome back! Yeah, I stopped for a while as well. But I mainly just do fun parlays once in a while for a few bucks. There's a few people that still post here, and I always check back cuz it's all vets that have been around for a while. I post sometimes to support the site.

As far as the total goes, super bowls in the past 20 years or so have tended to be under. It's the whole defense wins championships mantra. I've been watching some ESPN to gauge the public opinion, and it appears most people expect this to be a high scoring game and for it to go over the total. Which is actually quite surprising to me because they played 2 months ago with the same total (56) and it went under (27-24). Go figure.

If you want the under you should probably lock it in sooner rather than later. It's gone down 1/2 pt to 1 pt in some places because of the possibility of rain. So the total could drop, but it's not going up any more than the original 56.5.

I'm leaning over for now. But I haven't decided my official bet yet.

While you're here, why don't you enlighten me with your KC "rigged reasons"? Nothing is out of bounds.

Is it the "passing of the torch" thing that I've read in a lot of posts?

Because I don't think that's a real storyline. The torch was already passed to Mahomes last season when Brady lost in the first round, left the patriots, and Mahomes got his first super bowl.

Is it that you think Mahomes is more marketable? The NFL wants the new guy over the GOAT?

[V3r1f13d]

While you're here, why don't you enlighten me with your KC "rigged reasons"? Nothing is out of bounds.

Everything seems to be out of bounds these days. Basically for the reasons you stated, but even more so, political divide crushed revenues. If the NFL can get Mahomes more attention (ie - win back to back) he's younger, more marketable and to be up front about it he isn't white. Brady was an outspoken Trump supporter and I doubt the NFL needs more people kneeling all the time. Perhaps the NFL can put all of this behind them with a popular black quarter back in a Biden\Harris administration. You can tin foil hat me all you want but that's how I see it.

The more I think about it, maybe the Over is the play. The public loves high scoring games. I'll post my play before the game. Might have to go with my Mahomes conspiracy theory and take KC -3.

[recovering77]

Everything seems to be out of bounds these days. Basically for the reasons you stated, but even more so, political divide crushed revenues. If the NFL can get Mahomes more attention (ie - win back to back) he's younger, more marketable and to be up front about it he isn't white. Brady was an outspoken Trump supporter and I doubt the NFL needs more people kneeling all the time. Perhaps the NFL can put all of this behind them with a popular black quarter back in a Biden\Harris administration. You can tin foil hat me all you want but that's how I see it.

The more I think about it, maybe the Over is the play. The public loves high scoring games. I'll post my play before the game. Might have to go with my Mahomes conspiracy theory and take KC -3.

That's absolutely false about Brady being an outspoken Trump supporter. Brady had the hat in his locker then they made a big deal out of it. They asked him one time and he responded with "He's my friend, and I support my friends." That was back in 2015 I believe. Then Giselle got mad at him and he said "I don't think I should talk about this anymore" the next time someone asked him. He never mentioned it again, and it's been like 4-5 years, so I dunno how you can call him an "outspoken Trump supporter."

And he's been supporting his teammates with the kneeling the whole time. He says "they do it for a reason, and I respect that."

I don't think Mahomes has been an outspoken kneeler. But Brady hits the right medium to appease both sides with his tone and demeanor.

It can be disputed that Mahomes is the more marketable star. The NBA is more of a young man's league. The NFL is more for everyone, and skews older demographic because of it. I would argue that Brady is just as marketable, with his good looks, beautiful wife, pleasant and warming demeanor, career of success, underdog story of a 6th round pick, defying age by doing this at 43, and he's white and tall.

Mahomes has already gotten plenty of marketing. He was NFL MVP, Super Bowl MVP, and he was on the Cover of Madden in just the past 3 years.

As I wrote in my own post, I don't think the NFL really cares who wins. It's kind of a win-win. Either story would be great for the NFL.


The public loves high scoring games of course, but the public doesn't always get what they want. The SB has been under the last 2 years. And it's been about half and half the past 20.

[recovering77]

And it could be argued that the NFL could want the Bucs to win in light of the news of Andy Reid's son driving drunk and seriously injuring a 5 year old child.

[Kevin]

Welcome back! Great to see ya man!

I don't have a take on the total, but I know some fairly sharp bettors who are betting significant amounts on the under.

[V3r1f13d]

Having a hat is enough to be considered outspoken. I'm in Los Angeles and Im ousted for one, doesn't take much, believe me.

What's up Kevin.

I'm taking KC -3 (as it stands) so BLM can ride off into the sunset. Amount TBD. Will know by tonight.

[V3r1f13d]

My UFC 5 unit play hit.

Rolling it over and some for 10 units KC ML -160

[Stifler's Mom]

haha, I sure hope Josh Allen is marketable say next year!

seriously though, I could see the NFL going that route, if that's what they think is best. I've seen it personally as a bills fan (not for political reasons, though). during the Marone (who is just plain boring), and then especially Rex Ryan (who was especially rude, obnoxious and arrogant during his time in Buffalo) eras, the bills couldn't catch a break from a ref. I'm a season ticket holder so I attend pretty much every game, and believe it or not, there were certain refs we'd see run out on the field prior to game time (Ed Hochuli....who is now retired....was one), and it wasn't just me saying it, and we'd be saying "well, we're screwed today".....and wouldn't you know, every important call went against the bills that day.

I get it, most of those teams weren't that good (although there were at times spots of optimism, mostly from the defensive units), nor were they especially well coached, so those things alone are going to lead to more penalties, but this was more than that. important times, momentum swingers or stoppers, etc. it was like they wanted to keep the team down.....and that's what they did.

now though, that's seemed to stop under the obviously more marketable (and far less outspoken and obnoxious) regime and players in the organization today, and I actually no longer expect literally every single call to go against them.

coincidence? I don't know....but I'm just saying I put nothing past the nfl.....and yeah, I do believe the NFL is absolutely at times, "fixed" by officials.

would they go so far as to do it in a super bowl? which way would they lean here if they did? who knows....

oh and nice to see you back. I rarely post anymore either, for some of the same reasons you mentioned, but still like to drop in to read the ones who do.

[joepa66]

Welcome back! Great to see ya....I am on the Under and the KC ML!

Good Luck to ya!

[V3r1f13d]

I bet on the refs being a factor but it looks like all the love is on the other side.