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Slow week around here. I haven't even seen a SB thread yet, so I'll go ahead and start it off. Last game, big game for many, so it requires extra analysis. I'm a self proclaimed "Public Fader" that tends to go against logic. But there's a line between actual fundamental and statistical analysis, and fading logic. I'm having a hard time find this balance this week so here goes. I will continue to edit the post as new things come to mind.
Point Spread
Kansas City comes in as a 3.5 point favorite to open, but it's moving slightly towards Tampa +3 with the juice being on KC. These teams played in Tampa Bay 2 months ago, with the spread being the same 3.5 points, and Tampa Bay covered. But it was a 3 point game. So there's nothing really wrong with the line here. The books set it as a 3 point game, and it was a 3 point game last time. You could say that this is a home game for Tampa, but it's not really. 7,500 first responders, I assume locals, will be getting free tickets. About 15-16,000 other tickets will be sold. And those will be expensive, and I assume will not automatically be Tampa Bay fans. They will be the rich corporate folks who can afford thousands of dollars for tickets and airfare.
The Bucs covered the line because of 2 garbage touchdowns late in the game. KC was up 17-0 at one point, and 27-10 in the 4th quarter. So this game was not as close as it appeared. I didn't watch the game, so I didn't know what happened other than the final score until now. Tyreek Hill had 13 catches, 269 yards, and 3 TDs. Mike Evans had two late TDs, and the Chiefs ran out the last 4 mins to the victory. The Bucs rush defense mostly contained KC's rushers the whole game. Forced them into a FG attempt from 2nd and goal at the 1.
Total
The total opened at 56.5 and has dropped slightly to 55.5/56. It opened half a point higher than the closing line of the first meeting, which went under (51 total points). This stands out to me, and makes me favor the over. However, the unders have been hitting at a noticeable rate in the super bowls. The term "defense wins championships" continues to hold true. I like taking overs where at least one of the teams has a good defense. Both of these teams have weapons galore, and vegas probably knew they could set the total pretty high, and the public would still be all over it. It's the super bowl after all, and if you couldn't pick between the two teams, why not just hope for an entertaining, high scoring game when a lot of people are going to be at parties seeing their friends?
I think I saw a stat that the combination of Favorite + Over has only hit like 3 times in the past 20 years, which isn't that surprising actually. Only 25% chance of that. And the public is apparently on the Chiefs and the Over. Not an overwhelming amount though, as this is the super bowl, and I don't really see a "square" play here.
Playoff Experience
One of my biggest factors when picking the super bowl is playoff experience. Other than the young Seahawks Super Bowl win over Denver years back, the team with more playoff experience has typically won. I think the edge here goes to Kansas City, who came up short against New England 2 years ago. Then fought their way back to win the Super Bowl last year. So this is their third year of significant playoff experience, and that isn't counting the perennial playoff team they were under Andy Reid with Alex Smith as the quarterback.
Some will obviously point to Brady, who has the most big game playoff experience of all, and Gronkowski who was there for many of those. And Antonio Brown, (if you could call that an advantage). But the rest of this Tampa team is really just sniffing their first success of their careers. We've all heard about the Tampa player that was crying after making it to the Super Bowl, and Brady calling him out saying like what are you crying for, we're not done yet! This is clearly not the New England Patriots teams of the past, and they shouldn't be treated as such just because they have two players from that team. Bruce Arians is supposedly a good coach, but this will be his first super bowl.
Go ahead and look at past history and show me teams that won the super bowl without a veteran team that had playoff experience. Outside of that Seattle team, you won't find many.
Public Perception
Some could say that Kansas City is the goliath here. They were 14-2 on the season, and one of those losses was a meaningless week 17 game with a backup quarterback. So Kansas City basically lost 1 game all season, to a division rival that gave them all they had and took a victory lap around the stadium after winning that 1 regular season game. But I've never seen a so called goliath perform so poorly against the spread before. Kansas City is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. Over the past 3 months, this goliath team has not been a good team to bet on. But as their record has shown, they have won the close games. But most of them have been close games.
Tampa has had their ups and downs this season. Up until the playoffs, they really hadn't beaten anyone. They lost to the Saints twice, which weren't particularly close. Lost to the bears because of a Brady brain fart, and lost to the rams and chiefs. They had one signature win in the regular season over Green Bay, who they just beat again last week.
Those that I see that are taking Tampa Bay are only taking them for one reason, Brady, the GOAT. Not saying that's not a good reason, but that's the only angle I'm seeing from a lot of Tampa backers. Brady isn't some mythical figure though. He's only a man, and a man that threw 3 picks against the packers last week.
But really, how could you bet against a team that's essentially 16-1 on the season, in a game that's essentially a pickem with the line only being 3 on some books?
Repeating as Champions
No team has repeated as Super Bowl champions since the Patriots did it in 2005. I was reading an article about this, but the Chiefs have avoided much of the roadblocks to a repeat because of the COVID situation. There was no offseason, no preseason. Much of the past year has been everyone practicing, playing, then going home to avoid catching COVID. No extended partying and celebrations, no night clubs/strip clubs, no getting crunked in the club. The Chiefs aren't even allowed to go to Tampa until two days before the game, so they've avoided the media circus that comes with super bowl week. Some may say that's a benefit to the Bucs who haven't been here before, and don't have to worry as much about getting family members tickets and travel accommodations. Though I'm sure there will be family members coming.
Not much time for Kansas City to yup it up and feel themselves. Bask in the glory of their Super Bowl victory. They were taking teams best shots all season, and came out ahead in all of them except one.
Patterns
I know there's a million trends you could look at, but this one did catch my eye. One thing that stuck out to me, and was one of the reasons I took Washington in the Wild Card round was Tampa Bay's pattern of covering 2 games, then not covering the third. Tampa Bay has covered 2 games in a row 5 times this season. They are currently on a 2 game covering streak. The previous 4 times they've covered 2 in a row, they have not covered the third game. But after looking at this more closely, it appears that they won the third game in all previous occurrences, they just didn't cover (favorites in every game). Interestingly enough, in the third game which they did not cover, all 4 instances went over the total. However none of those totals was over 50, so it was easier for them to hit.
Statistical Matchups Portion
I usually don't go this far into write-ups. So pardon my writing here if I don't do it too well.
Defenses
It is well known that Tampa's run defense is solid. It's been like this for several years now. You don't run on tampa, you have to throw on them, and the secondary was historically bad last season. But they've patched it up a bit with draft additions.
Tampa Bay is ranked #1 against the run this season. #1 in rushing yards allowed (3.6ypc), and #1 in rushing touchdowns allowed (10).
Tampa Bay is ranked #8 in passing yards allowed, but #22 in passing TDs allowed. This could be because they're so darn good against the run, the teams had no choice but to pass.
Kansas City is #21 in rushing yards allowed (4.5 ypc), and 10th in rushing TDs allowed. I notice a disparity there. Maybe it's that teams do have success running against KC, but that they are playing from behind and have to abandon it too quickly.
Kansas City is #19 in passing yards allowed, and #21 passing touchdowns allowed. This actually surprises me, because I thought the way to beat KC was to run it as opposed to the pass, but it appears they're about equally as bad at both.
Tampa is 8th in points allowed per game (22.2)
Kansas City is 10th in points allowed per game (22.6)
Also note that the Chiefs defensive Coordinator is Steve Spagnuolo, who led both the NY Giants defenses that beat Brady's Patriots a decade ago.
Penalties
Interesting stat here.
Tampa bay is 10th worst at committing penalties. And they gave up the 2nd worst amount of penalty yards this season.
Kansas City is 9th worst at committing penalties. But only 16th worst in penalty yards.
So basically Tampa gives up a lot of pass interferenence penalties I assume.
Offenses
I hadn't actually checked this prior to writing, so this is new to me.
Kansas City is #1 in passing yards, and #3 in passing touchdowns. #6 in points scored per game (29.6 ppg)
Tampa Bay is #2 in passing yards, and #2 in passing touchdowns. #3 in points scored per game (30.8 ppg).
Now I see why the total has been set so high. If they both hit their averages, that's 60.4 points a game!
Too bad that doesn't equate to overs being hit. KC is 9-9 O/U this season, and TB is 11-8.
Tampa Bay is 28th in rushing yards. 18th in rushing touchdowns.
Kansas City is 16th in rushing yards. 23rd in rushing touchdowns.
I didn't realize TB was so bad at running the ball. I also expected KC to be lower. Edwards-Helaire didn't impress me this season, and Leveon Bell is washed up.
Slow Brady Starts
I read this stat on some article this week. Brady has been in 9 super bowls, and the first quarters have gone like this:
XXXVI vs. Rams, Rams led 3-0
XXXVIII vs. Panthers, tied 0-0
XXXIX vs. Eagles, tied 0-0
XLII vs. Giants, Giants led 3-0
XLVI vs. Giants, Giants led 9-0
XLIX vs. Seahawks, tied 0-0
LI vs. Falcons, tied 0-0
LII vs. Eagles, Eagles led 9-3
LIII vs. Rams, tied 0-0
Ain't that amazing? Brady's teams have scored a total of THREEE (3) points in the first quarter of 9 super bowl games. He hasn't been winning after the first quarter in any of them. How is over 56 going to hit when Brady has only scored once in the first quarter of the last 9 games?
Despite this, In super bowls, Brady is 4-5 O/U somehow, and overs are 3-1 in his last 4, the last one being under.
First quarter line is over under 10.5, Bucs +0.5.
Vegas Angles
So who does Vegas want to win, or more importantly who do they not want to win?
I've mentioned this earlier that there isn't really a "square" pick here. I'm showing 58% consensus on KC on another site, but that's negligible IMO. I think the casual, casual fan that only bets the SB would take KC here. Primarily because they've only lost 1 game all season, plus despite mutterings of the GOAT, there's a lot of people around the country that don't like Tom Brady for some reason. This isn't Lebron James level hatred, but there's a lot of people who don't like Brady as much as I don't like Aaron Rodgers, but respect his success.
I was reading an article last week that KC did receive the most SB futures bets, but that Tampa Bay was second. So the question to me is, who gets the bigger payouts (including the initial stake)? I'd welcome comments on this.
Do the KC backers and the larger quantity, and larger money bets (I assume) at +200 or whatever before the playoffs started make more money. Or do the lesser number of bets paying 10 or 12-1 on Tampa pay out more? I think the article said Vegas does not want the Buccaneers to win, because a lot of people bet on them. That was a great value at minimum 10x your money.
NFL Angles
Who does the NFL want to win? Does it matter to them? One would have thought that they would've wanted the Packers to win with Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay's huge fan base. Green Bay had gotten questionable calls all season, but it seemed to go against them last game.
Does the NFL like the storyline of a changing of the guard and Brady handing off to Mahomes? I disagree that this angle even exists. Because Mahomes has already won the Super Bowl, and Brady's Patriots had an early exit last season, and the current Patriots are no more, a rebuilding team.
The NFL angle only worked once for me. Two years ago I was 100% positive that the Rams would not beat the Patriots. There was no way that the NFL would have let an asterisk Rams team win the super bowl after that missed pass interference call against the Saints. They wouldn't have been true champions.
I don't see an angle like that here. Either Brady or Mahomes winning is both good for the NFL. And Brady is coming back next year anyways, so there's no Peyton Manning type sendoff in this one.
Social Issues
I think the social issues were mainly last season correct? And we had a black quarterback win last season. So I don't think there is an angle on that here. Both assistant coaches are up for Head Coaching gigs. Leftwich and Bienemy. All the slots have been filled though right?
Superstitions
Mattress Mack has $3.46M on Bucs +3.5. This dude loses everything he picks, but I'm sure he doesn't really care that much because he has insurance.
Madden simulation has KC winning 37-27. KC + Over. The simulation had a great record for a number of years. 8-2 in a 10 year stretch. Picked Seahawks/Patriots game perfectly. Last year picked KC correctly (missed the total). Record of 2-3 in their last 5.
Chalk?
Seems like this year has been a year of Chalk.
NFL Winner - Chiefs (Last Year). They were favored the entire way.
NBA Winner - Lakers. Them and the Clippers were expected to win it the whole time, but the Lakers had the better 2 players, and best player in the league
MLB Winner - Dodgers. They had the best team the entire season, and finished it off for the title.
NHL Winner - Tampa Bay Lightning. Higher seed beat the lower seeded Dallas Stars for the cup.
NCAAF Winner - Alabama. #1 seed overall in the CFB playoff. Won in a blowout.
NCAAB had no tournament so there was no winner.
Not going to go further cuz those are the majors. But the top ranked team won every major sport this year.
Point Spread
Kansas City comes in as a 3.5 point favorite to open, but it's moving slightly towards Tampa +3 with the juice being on KC. These teams played in Tampa Bay 2 months ago, with the spread being the same 3.5 points, and Tampa Bay covered. But it was a 3 point game. So there's nothing really wrong with the line here. The books set it as a 3 point game, and it was a 3 point game last time. You could say that this is a home game for Tampa, but it's not really. 7,500 first responders, I assume locals, will be getting free tickets. About 15-16,000 other tickets will be sold. And those will be expensive, and I assume will not automatically be Tampa Bay fans. They will be the rich corporate folks who can afford thousands of dollars for tickets and airfare.
The Bucs covered the line because of 2 garbage touchdowns late in the game. KC was up 17-0 at one point, and 27-10 in the 4th quarter. So this game was not as close as it appeared. I didn't watch the game, so I didn't know what happened other than the final score until now. Tyreek Hill had 13 catches, 269 yards, and 3 TDs. Mike Evans had two late TDs, and the Chiefs ran out the last 4 mins to the victory. The Bucs rush defense mostly contained KC's rushers the whole game. Forced them into a FG attempt from 2nd and goal at the 1.
Total
The total opened at 56.5 and has dropped slightly to 55.5/56. It opened half a point higher than the closing line of the first meeting, which went under (51 total points). This stands out to me, and makes me favor the over. However, the unders have been hitting at a noticeable rate in the super bowls. The term "defense wins championships" continues to hold true. I like taking overs where at least one of the teams has a good defense. Both of these teams have weapons galore, and vegas probably knew they could set the total pretty high, and the public would still be all over it. It's the super bowl after all, and if you couldn't pick between the two teams, why not just hope for an entertaining, high scoring game when a lot of people are going to be at parties seeing their friends?
I think I saw a stat that the combination of Favorite + Over has only hit like 3 times in the past 20 years, which isn't that surprising actually. Only 25% chance of that. And the public is apparently on the Chiefs and the Over. Not an overwhelming amount though, as this is the super bowl, and I don't really see a "square" play here.
Playoff Experience
One of my biggest factors when picking the super bowl is playoff experience. Other than the young Seahawks Super Bowl win over Denver years back, the team with more playoff experience has typically won. I think the edge here goes to Kansas City, who came up short against New England 2 years ago. Then fought their way back to win the Super Bowl last year. So this is their third year of significant playoff experience, and that isn't counting the perennial playoff team they were under Andy Reid with Alex Smith as the quarterback.
Some will obviously point to Brady, who has the most big game playoff experience of all, and Gronkowski who was there for many of those. And Antonio Brown, (if you could call that an advantage). But the rest of this Tampa team is really just sniffing their first success of their careers. We've all heard about the Tampa player that was crying after making it to the Super Bowl, and Brady calling him out saying like what are you crying for, we're not done yet! This is clearly not the New England Patriots teams of the past, and they shouldn't be treated as such just because they have two players from that team. Bruce Arians is supposedly a good coach, but this will be his first super bowl.
Go ahead and look at past history and show me teams that won the super bowl without a veteran team that had playoff experience. Outside of that Seattle team, you won't find many.
Public Perception
Some could say that Kansas City is the goliath here. They were 14-2 on the season, and one of those losses was a meaningless week 17 game with a backup quarterback. So Kansas City basically lost 1 game all season, to a division rival that gave them all they had and took a victory lap around the stadium after winning that 1 regular season game. But I've never seen a so called goliath perform so poorly against the spread before. Kansas City is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. Over the past 3 months, this goliath team has not been a good team to bet on. But as their record has shown, they have won the close games. But most of them have been close games.
Tampa has had their ups and downs this season. Up until the playoffs, they really hadn't beaten anyone. They lost to the Saints twice, which weren't particularly close. Lost to the bears because of a Brady brain fart, and lost to the rams and chiefs. They had one signature win in the regular season over Green Bay, who they just beat again last week.
Those that I see that are taking Tampa Bay are only taking them for one reason, Brady, the GOAT. Not saying that's not a good reason, but that's the only angle I'm seeing from a lot of Tampa backers. Brady isn't some mythical figure though. He's only a man, and a man that threw 3 picks against the packers last week.
But really, how could you bet against a team that's essentially 16-1 on the season, in a game that's essentially a pickem with the line only being 3 on some books?
Repeating as Champions
No team has repeated as Super Bowl champions since the Patriots did it in 2005. I was reading an article about this, but the Chiefs have avoided much of the roadblocks to a repeat because of the COVID situation. There was no offseason, no preseason. Much of the past year has been everyone practicing, playing, then going home to avoid catching COVID. No extended partying and celebrations, no night clubs/strip clubs, no getting crunked in the club. The Chiefs aren't even allowed to go to Tampa until two days before the game, so they've avoided the media circus that comes with super bowl week. Some may say that's a benefit to the Bucs who haven't been here before, and don't have to worry as much about getting family members tickets and travel accommodations. Though I'm sure there will be family members coming.
Not much time for Kansas City to yup it up and feel themselves. Bask in the glory of their Super Bowl victory. They were taking teams best shots all season, and came out ahead in all of them except one.
Patterns
I know there's a million trends you could look at, but this one did catch my eye. One thing that stuck out to me, and was one of the reasons I took Washington in the Wild Card round was Tampa Bay's pattern of covering 2 games, then not covering the third. Tampa Bay has covered 2 games in a row 5 times this season. They are currently on a 2 game covering streak. The previous 4 times they've covered 2 in a row, they have not covered the third game. But after looking at this more closely, it appears that they won the third game in all previous occurrences, they just didn't cover (favorites in every game). Interestingly enough, in the third game which they did not cover, all 4 instances went over the total. However none of those totals was over 50, so it was easier for them to hit.
Statistical Matchups Portion
I usually don't go this far into write-ups. So pardon my writing here if I don't do it too well.
Defenses
It is well known that Tampa's run defense is solid. It's been like this for several years now. You don't run on tampa, you have to throw on them, and the secondary was historically bad last season. But they've patched it up a bit with draft additions.
Tampa Bay is ranked #1 against the run this season. #1 in rushing yards allowed (3.6ypc), and #1 in rushing touchdowns allowed (10).
Tampa Bay is ranked #8 in passing yards allowed, but #22 in passing TDs allowed. This could be because they're so darn good against the run, the teams had no choice but to pass.
Kansas City is #21 in rushing yards allowed (4.5 ypc), and 10th in rushing TDs allowed. I notice a disparity there. Maybe it's that teams do have success running against KC, but that they are playing from behind and have to abandon it too quickly.
Kansas City is #19 in passing yards allowed, and #21 passing touchdowns allowed. This actually surprises me, because I thought the way to beat KC was to run it as opposed to the pass, but it appears they're about equally as bad at both.
Tampa is 8th in points allowed per game (22.2)
Kansas City is 10th in points allowed per game (22.6)
Also note that the Chiefs defensive Coordinator is Steve Spagnuolo, who led both the NY Giants defenses that beat Brady's Patriots a decade ago.
Penalties
Interesting stat here.
Tampa bay is 10th worst at committing penalties. And they gave up the 2nd worst amount of penalty yards this season.
Kansas City is 9th worst at committing penalties. But only 16th worst in penalty yards.
So basically Tampa gives up a lot of pass interferenence penalties I assume.
Offenses
I hadn't actually checked this prior to writing, so this is new to me.
Kansas City is #1 in passing yards, and #3 in passing touchdowns. #6 in points scored per game (29.6 ppg)
Tampa Bay is #2 in passing yards, and #2 in passing touchdowns. #3 in points scored per game (30.8 ppg).
Now I see why the total has been set so high. If they both hit their averages, that's 60.4 points a game!
Too bad that doesn't equate to overs being hit. KC is 9-9 O/U this season, and TB is 11-8.
Tampa Bay is 28th in rushing yards. 18th in rushing touchdowns.
Kansas City is 16th in rushing yards. 23rd in rushing touchdowns.
I didn't realize TB was so bad at running the ball. I also expected KC to be lower. Edwards-Helaire didn't impress me this season, and Leveon Bell is washed up.
Slow Brady Starts
I read this stat on some article this week. Brady has been in 9 super bowls, and the first quarters have gone like this:
XXXVI vs. Rams, Rams led 3-0
XXXVIII vs. Panthers, tied 0-0
XXXIX vs. Eagles, tied 0-0
XLII vs. Giants, Giants led 3-0
XLVI vs. Giants, Giants led 9-0
XLIX vs. Seahawks, tied 0-0
LI vs. Falcons, tied 0-0
LII vs. Eagles, Eagles led 9-3
LIII vs. Rams, tied 0-0
Ain't that amazing? Brady's teams have scored a total of THREEE (3) points in the first quarter of 9 super bowl games. He hasn't been winning after the first quarter in any of them. How is over 56 going to hit when Brady has only scored once in the first quarter of the last 9 games?
Despite this, In super bowls, Brady is 4-5 O/U somehow, and overs are 3-1 in his last 4, the last one being under.
First quarter line is over under 10.5, Bucs +0.5.
Vegas Angles
So who does Vegas want to win, or more importantly who do they not want to win?
I've mentioned this earlier that there isn't really a "square" pick here. I'm showing 58% consensus on KC on another site, but that's negligible IMO. I think the casual, casual fan that only bets the SB would take KC here. Primarily because they've only lost 1 game all season, plus despite mutterings of the GOAT, there's a lot of people around the country that don't like Tom Brady for some reason. This isn't Lebron James level hatred, but there's a lot of people who don't like Brady as much as I don't like Aaron Rodgers, but respect his success.
I was reading an article last week that KC did receive the most SB futures bets, but that Tampa Bay was second. So the question to me is, who gets the bigger payouts (including the initial stake)? I'd welcome comments on this.
Do the KC backers and the larger quantity, and larger money bets (I assume) at +200 or whatever before the playoffs started make more money. Or do the lesser number of bets paying 10 or 12-1 on Tampa pay out more? I think the article said Vegas does not want the Buccaneers to win, because a lot of people bet on them. That was a great value at minimum 10x your money.
NFL Angles
Who does the NFL want to win? Does it matter to them? One would have thought that they would've wanted the Packers to win with Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay's huge fan base. Green Bay had gotten questionable calls all season, but it seemed to go against them last game.
Does the NFL like the storyline of a changing of the guard and Brady handing off to Mahomes? I disagree that this angle even exists. Because Mahomes has already won the Super Bowl, and Brady's Patriots had an early exit last season, and the current Patriots are no more, a rebuilding team.
The NFL angle only worked once for me. Two years ago I was 100% positive that the Rams would not beat the Patriots. There was no way that the NFL would have let an asterisk Rams team win the super bowl after that missed pass interference call against the Saints. They wouldn't have been true champions.
I don't see an angle like that here. Either Brady or Mahomes winning is both good for the NFL. And Brady is coming back next year anyways, so there's no Peyton Manning type sendoff in this one.
Social Issues
I think the social issues were mainly last season correct? And we had a black quarterback win last season. So I don't think there is an angle on that here. Both assistant coaches are up for Head Coaching gigs. Leftwich and Bienemy. All the slots have been filled though right?
Superstitions
Mattress Mack has $3.46M on Bucs +3.5. This dude loses everything he picks, but I'm sure he doesn't really care that much because he has insurance.
Madden simulation has KC winning 37-27. KC + Over. The simulation had a great record for a number of years. 8-2 in a 10 year stretch. Picked Seahawks/Patriots game perfectly. Last year picked KC correctly (missed the total). Record of 2-3 in their last 5.
Chalk?
Seems like this year has been a year of Chalk.
NFL Winner - Chiefs (Last Year). They were favored the entire way.
NBA Winner - Lakers. Them and the Clippers were expected to win it the whole time, but the Lakers had the better 2 players, and best player in the league
MLB Winner - Dodgers. They had the best team the entire season, and finished it off for the title.
NHL Winner - Tampa Bay Lightning. Higher seed beat the lower seeded Dallas Stars for the cup.
NCAAF Winner - Alabama. #1 seed overall in the CFB playoff. Won in a blowout.
NCAAB had no tournament so there was no winner.
Not going to go further cuz those are the majors. But the top ranked team won every major sport this year.
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