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Took several weeks off, but I'm playing this week so time to get some initial thoughts together.
Did some thinking last night and am shuffling stuff around. I'll finalize the card today. Consider everything a lean until I do.
Picks:
Baltimore -3.5 at Tennessee. The Titans have an awwwwwful defense, so anyone that can move the ball should have success against them. I don't really buy the "revenge" factor, but it's there. Baltimore is getting hot at the right time, and Lamar has some playoff experience under his belt now. Also, Baltimore was a 6 pt favorite in the first meeting and lost. Yet they're giving the hook on the road this time. I actually made this pick even before last Sunday, but I thought they'd play Pittsburgh. I thought it would be a great value since they'd be getting points cuz they're a wild card on the road vs. a division champion, but so much for that.
Baltimore/Tennessee OVER 54.5. The total is the highest of the weekend and it's an odd one. Baltimore and Tenn played earlier this season at the total was 54, but it needed a lucky TD in overtime to get there. Yet it opens at 54.5 this time. I suspect this is just price inflation because Tenn has played overs in 7 of their last 8 games. But I'm leaning over in this one.
I like both picks, but I will only be playing one. I don't like picking both sides of the same game. If the Buffalo game goes under, I'll probably take the over.
Cleveland +6 at Pittsburgh. They played in Pittsburgh in week 6, and Pittsburgh clobbered them 38-7. The line was -3 Pittsburgh in that game. On Sunday night, this line opened at only 3.5 before it moved slightly and then moved big due to the COVID thing with the coach. I saw a stat about QBs making their first playoff appearances (Mayfield), and the record is not good. However, the most successful ones are road underdogs (7-10). This is not the same Pittsburgh team that was rolling earlier in the season. They really hit a wall after some unfortunate scheduling. They had their bye week taken away, had their games postponed due to COVID and played like 3 games in 11 days. They were complaining because Big Ben said quote "Whenever you play the Ravens you're so beaten down you like the bye week to recover." Then they played again 5 days later. Then the Browns play them last week in a must win game against their crappy backup QB Mason Rudolph and barely win the game.
I'm doing a lot of reading, and all I'm hearing is New Orleans ML, Tampa Bay ML, Pitt ML parlay pays 1-1. "Pittsburgh will not lose to Cleveland, it's Cleveland." The Browns have not been given any respect by bookmakers the entire season, yet they still won 11 games. I'm looking for an upset here with a live dog against a worn down team.
LA Rams +3.5 at Seattle. The Ram historically play the Seahawks pretty tough. Seattle managed to win the last game by double digits, but that was late. May need to check the injury reports on Goff's broken finger though. The line is down to 3 now because it looks like Goff is likely to play. This is one of those rare games where I think the 3 pts will matter, and I don't think it'll be a push.
Leans:
I'll pick one of these two teams. Just dunno which one yet. Looks like Alex Smith is trending to be out tonight. But I dunno if I can pull the trigger with a backup QB in the playoffs.
Washington +8.5 vs. Tampa Bay. I think it's a little too well known now that the home team typically has success in this spot. The division champion with the crappy record that gets to host a playoff game against the way better team. Even if there were fans, Washington doesn't have much of a home field advantage though. But everyone knows the key to getting to brady is to pressure him and not give him time. Washington can definitely do that, as their strength is their entire defense. I really don't like how Chase Young called out Brady (the GOAT), but as a fan I love the confidence. I'm still thinking this one over though.
Chicago +10 at New Orleans. Brees typically hasn't been good in December. Could be the cold weather, though he still hasn't played well in December even in their home dome. This is Brees' last year before he retires, and he's pretty beat up. Chicago is that team with the worst record that barely got in. But they have a good defense and despite all the jokes, Trubisky has been an above average QB since coming back.
I'm taking a second look at this game. New Orleans has been pretty good as bigger favorites this season. And they did play once earlier this season, and New Orleans barely beat them by 3 in OT.
Probably won't make it there in time for the Buffalo/Colts game, but I lean trend with Buffalo. They've covered 8 games in a row, and their odds of winning the SB are only 5.5 to 1. I'm interested to see the winner though. Kind of a law of averages that makes my Cleveland pick stronger.
Did some thinking last night and am shuffling stuff around. I'll finalize the card today. Consider everything a lean until I do.
Picks:
Baltimore -3.5 at Tennessee. The Titans have an awwwwwful defense, so anyone that can move the ball should have success against them. I don't really buy the "revenge" factor, but it's there. Baltimore is getting hot at the right time, and Lamar has some playoff experience under his belt now. Also, Baltimore was a 6 pt favorite in the first meeting and lost. Yet they're giving the hook on the road this time. I actually made this pick even before last Sunday, but I thought they'd play Pittsburgh. I thought it would be a great value since they'd be getting points cuz they're a wild card on the road vs. a division champion, but so much for that.
Baltimore/Tennessee OVER 54.5. The total is the highest of the weekend and it's an odd one. Baltimore and Tenn played earlier this season at the total was 54, but it needed a lucky TD in overtime to get there. Yet it opens at 54.5 this time. I suspect this is just price inflation because Tenn has played overs in 7 of their last 8 games. But I'm leaning over in this one.
I like both picks, but I will only be playing one. I don't like picking both sides of the same game. If the Buffalo game goes under, I'll probably take the over.
Cleveland +6 at Pittsburgh. They played in Pittsburgh in week 6, and Pittsburgh clobbered them 38-7. The line was -3 Pittsburgh in that game. On Sunday night, this line opened at only 3.5 before it moved slightly and then moved big due to the COVID thing with the coach. I saw a stat about QBs making their first playoff appearances (Mayfield), and the record is not good. However, the most successful ones are road underdogs (7-10). This is not the same Pittsburgh team that was rolling earlier in the season. They really hit a wall after some unfortunate scheduling. They had their bye week taken away, had their games postponed due to COVID and played like 3 games in 11 days. They were complaining because Big Ben said quote "Whenever you play the Ravens you're so beaten down you like the bye week to recover." Then they played again 5 days later. Then the Browns play them last week in a must win game against their crappy backup QB Mason Rudolph and barely win the game.
I'm doing a lot of reading, and all I'm hearing is New Orleans ML, Tampa Bay ML, Pitt ML parlay pays 1-1. "Pittsburgh will not lose to Cleveland, it's Cleveland." The Browns have not been given any respect by bookmakers the entire season, yet they still won 11 games. I'm looking for an upset here with a live dog against a worn down team.
LA Rams +3.5 at Seattle. The Ram historically play the Seahawks pretty tough. Seattle managed to win the last game by double digits, but that was late. May need to check the injury reports on Goff's broken finger though. The line is down to 3 now because it looks like Goff is likely to play. This is one of those rare games where I think the 3 pts will matter, and I don't think it'll be a push.
Leans:
I'll pick one of these two teams. Just dunno which one yet. Looks like Alex Smith is trending to be out tonight. But I dunno if I can pull the trigger with a backup QB in the playoffs.
Washington +8.5 vs. Tampa Bay. I think it's a little too well known now that the home team typically has success in this spot. The division champion with the crappy record that gets to host a playoff game against the way better team. Even if there were fans, Washington doesn't have much of a home field advantage though. But everyone knows the key to getting to brady is to pressure him and not give him time. Washington can definitely do that, as their strength is their entire defense. I really don't like how Chase Young called out Brady (the GOAT), but as a fan I love the confidence. I'm still thinking this one over though.
Chicago +10 at New Orleans. Brees typically hasn't been good in December. Could be the cold weather, though he still hasn't played well in December even in their home dome. This is Brees' last year before he retires, and he's pretty beat up. Chicago is that team with the worst record that barely got in. But they have a good defense and despite all the jokes, Trubisky has been an above average QB since coming back.
I'm taking a second look at this game. New Orleans has been pretty good as bigger favorites this season. And they did play once earlier this season, and New Orleans barely beat them by 3 in OT.
Probably won't make it there in time for the Buffalo/Colts game, but I lean trend with Buffalo. They've covered 8 games in a row, and their odds of winning the SB are only 5.5 to 1. I'm interested to see the winner though. Kind of a law of averages that makes my Cleveland pick stronger.
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