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For some reason I thought Thanksgiving was this week and I wasn't going to play. Wrong about that, so I'll give it another go this week. I don't really have as much of a feel as I usually do this week, but sometimes I tend to do better when I just wing it and don't overthink too much. Here are the initial thoughts.
Plays:
Philly +3 at Cleveland. Another chase here. We've got a pickem game here with a 3-5 team at a 6-3 team. Cleveland lines have been low the entire season, so this isn't that unusual. But I expect Philly to bounce back sometime. They just have too much talent. Cleveland's defense is pretty bad as well, even though they have Miles Garrett. Scratch that, Miles Garrett is out, that's a big deal. Wentz wouldn't make so many mistakes if they could just give him time. I think Philly shows us what they're capable of this week.
Denver +3.5 vs. Miami. I suppose this is a chase of some sorts. Denver finally broke the trend and lost 2 in a row ATS for the first time in a year and a half last week. Lock is injured but will likely play. So Miami's going for their 6th win and cover in a row, and Denver trying to avoid their third ATS loss in a row. My main angle on this one is this week Tua said "he expected transition to NFL 'to be a lot harder," He should have his awakening this week. You gotta bring your A-game to Mile High if you want to be successful in altitude. Miami is also the #1 consensus pick this week after how poorly lock played last week.
New Orleans -3.5 vs. Atlanta. Backup QB system play. This doesn't fit the usual criteria at all though. Typically the backup QB is an underdog, not a favorite giving the hook. Typically the backup QB hasn't played every game with them for the past couple of seasons as a tight end. Payton is one of the best, even though others often get more credit. He's starting Taysom Hill over Jameis for a reason. I think he'll pull all the stops this week so he doesn't look dumb starting a tight end on a playoff team. Kinda like the Tua in Miami thing.
You remember what Belichick did for Jacoby Brissett's first game? A lot of movement, gadget plays, and they ended up winning 27-0 against the Texans. Payton will find a way.
New England -2.5 at Houston. New England played a great game on Sunday night. Aided by the elements and a successful ground game. But they're offense is really anemic. It's really surprising to see them as away favorites. That equates to a -8.5 line if they were at home. Surprising for a team that can barely throw the ball, against a team that still has a Franchise QB.
Green Bay +2.5 at Indy. That was an embarrassing performance by Green Bay last week against Jacksonville. They let the backup QB drive on them the entire game. Lookahead spot? Who knows. Indy isn't a good home favorite. I like Indy as a small away underdog. And Green Bay hasn't lost 2 in a row ATS in a while. Indy is a good team, but they're really pretenders at this point IMO.
Leans:
LA Chargers -9.5 vs. NY Jets. Is the line this high just because it's the Jets? The Jets are off a bye, and played an amazing game in primetime against the Patriots on MNF. It was a crushing defeat though, but the Jets are pretty much tanking at this point. The chargers can't win a close game, but this shouldn't be a close one.
Kansas City -7 at LV Raiders. The Raiders have a bunch of players on the COVID list this week, so that may be a factor in the line. The Chiefs got manhandled and pretty much destroyed in the first meeting, yet the line has gone up in this one when you adjust for home field. Raiders have been playing good ball lately, but it's Andy Reid off a bye. Everyone knows his record of success.
Kansas City / LV Raiders UNDER 57. The first meeting was 72 pts and the total has been adjusted higher. After the embarrassing loss I'm sure they studied the film closely over the bye. Derek Carr can look like a deer in headlights sometimes, and I don't think the Raiders score more than 17-21 in this game. Means the Chiefs would probably have to score 40 to push the total over. I don't think it'll be that kinda game, and even if it's revenge I don't think they need to go full throttle.
Weaker Leans
Pittsburgh/Jacksonville OVER 47.5 or Pittsburgh -10.5 at Jacksonville. Not sure which one I want to play yet. But the angle here is from fantasy football. I read somewhere that Big Ben costs an "absurd" amount in daily fantasy. Does that equate to a cover, or is it just a shootout? Pittsburgh's defense is much better than Green Bay's, so Pitt is probably the play, but I'm going to sleep on it. I think I'll go with Pittsburgh -10.5.
Moving this to a lean. Usually undefeated teams have their streaks end around week 8 or so. And it's often times against teams you wouldn't expect (i.e. Kansas City vs Oakland). A Pittsburgh loss here would bust every teaser in the book.
Dallas +7 at Minnesota. Three very nice wins in a row for the Vikings. I'm really surprised that Dallas is playing so poorly since Dalton took over. The Vikings defense is very poor, and Dalton is a capable veteran with weapons galore on that team. Maybe I should lay off, but maybe this line is so high because Dallas is a putrid 1-8 ATS this season. Scratch this. I can't take Dallas. They're awful and they gave Pitt all they could handle last game, and they're off a bye. Mccarthey probably spent the bye week in the hot tub and getting massages.
2020 Season
16-13-1 Plays
15-16-1 Leans
Plays:
Philly +3 at Cleveland. Another chase here. We've got a pickem game here with a 3-5 team at a 6-3 team. Cleveland lines have been low the entire season, so this isn't that unusual. But I expect Philly to bounce back sometime. They just have too much talent. Cleveland's defense is pretty bad as well, even though they have Miles Garrett. Scratch that, Miles Garrett is out, that's a big deal. Wentz wouldn't make so many mistakes if they could just give him time. I think Philly shows us what they're capable of this week.
Denver +3.5 vs. Miami. I suppose this is a chase of some sorts. Denver finally broke the trend and lost 2 in a row ATS for the first time in a year and a half last week. Lock is injured but will likely play. So Miami's going for their 6th win and cover in a row, and Denver trying to avoid their third ATS loss in a row. My main angle on this one is this week Tua said "he expected transition to NFL 'to be a lot harder," He should have his awakening this week. You gotta bring your A-game to Mile High if you want to be successful in altitude. Miami is also the #1 consensus pick this week after how poorly lock played last week.
New Orleans -3.5 vs. Atlanta. Backup QB system play. This doesn't fit the usual criteria at all though. Typically the backup QB is an underdog, not a favorite giving the hook. Typically the backup QB hasn't played every game with them for the past couple of seasons as a tight end. Payton is one of the best, even though others often get more credit. He's starting Taysom Hill over Jameis for a reason. I think he'll pull all the stops this week so he doesn't look dumb starting a tight end on a playoff team. Kinda like the Tua in Miami thing.
You remember what Belichick did for Jacoby Brissett's first game? A lot of movement, gadget plays, and they ended up winning 27-0 against the Texans. Payton will find a way.
New England -2.5 at Houston. New England played a great game on Sunday night. Aided by the elements and a successful ground game. But they're offense is really anemic. It's really surprising to see them as away favorites. That equates to a -8.5 line if they were at home. Surprising for a team that can barely throw the ball, against a team that still has a Franchise QB.
Green Bay +2.5 at Indy. That was an embarrassing performance by Green Bay last week against Jacksonville. They let the backup QB drive on them the entire game. Lookahead spot? Who knows. Indy isn't a good home favorite. I like Indy as a small away underdog. And Green Bay hasn't lost 2 in a row ATS in a while. Indy is a good team, but they're really pretenders at this point IMO.
Leans:
LA Chargers -9.5 vs. NY Jets. Is the line this high just because it's the Jets? The Jets are off a bye, and played an amazing game in primetime against the Patriots on MNF. It was a crushing defeat though, but the Jets are pretty much tanking at this point. The chargers can't win a close game, but this shouldn't be a close one.
Kansas City -7 at LV Raiders. The Raiders have a bunch of players on the COVID list this week, so that may be a factor in the line. The Chiefs got manhandled and pretty much destroyed in the first meeting, yet the line has gone up in this one when you adjust for home field. Raiders have been playing good ball lately, but it's Andy Reid off a bye. Everyone knows his record of success.
Kansas City / LV Raiders UNDER 57. The first meeting was 72 pts and the total has been adjusted higher. After the embarrassing loss I'm sure they studied the film closely over the bye. Derek Carr can look like a deer in headlights sometimes, and I don't think the Raiders score more than 17-21 in this game. Means the Chiefs would probably have to score 40 to push the total over. I don't think it'll be that kinda game, and even if it's revenge I don't think they need to go full throttle.
Weaker Leans
Pittsburgh/Jacksonville OVER 47.5 or Pittsburgh -10.5 at Jacksonville. Not sure which one I want to play yet. But the angle here is from fantasy football. I read somewhere that Big Ben costs an "absurd" amount in daily fantasy. Does that equate to a cover, or is it just a shootout? Pittsburgh's defense is much better than Green Bay's, so Pitt is probably the play, but I'm going to sleep on it. I think I'll go with Pittsburgh -10.5.
Moving this to a lean. Usually undefeated teams have their streaks end around week 8 or so. And it's often times against teams you wouldn't expect (i.e. Kansas City vs Oakland). A Pittsburgh loss here would bust every teaser in the book.
Dallas +7 at Minnesota. Three very nice wins in a row for the Vikings. I'm really surprised that Dallas is playing so poorly since Dalton took over. The Vikings defense is very poor, and Dalton is a capable veteran with weapons galore on that team. Maybe I should lay off, but maybe this line is so high because Dallas is a putrid 1-8 ATS this season. Scratch this. I can't take Dallas. They're awful and they gave Pitt all they could handle last game, and they're off a bye. Mccarthey probably spent the bye week in the hot tub and getting massages.
2020 Season
16-13-1 Plays
15-16-1 Leans
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