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It's really difficult to keep going knowing I would have hit my parlay last week if I just would have driven to put it in. But complaining and wondering what if won't change anything.
Let's get some thoughts down and see if I can put something together this week. I probably won't play anything at this point, but let's see where it goes.
Plays:
Denver +3.5 at LV Raiders. I'll keep going with the trend. Denver has not lost 2 in a row ATS in a season and a half. Denver is competent on offense, and the Raiders have their moments, but their offense is on and off and their defense hasn't been good for years.
Green Bay -13.5 vs. Jacksonville. This is rare for me to laying this much chalk, but it's a good spot. Green Bay fresh off a 6 pt loss to Minnesota, where frankly the game wasn't that close. Jake Luton had a pretty shocking performance last week, tossing for over 300 yards on the road in his first start. Green Bay should have it's way with Jacksonville's defense, and even if it becomes a shootout, Green Bay should pull away by the end. This is also the backup QB in his second game. The backup QB system only works for the first game. Surprised I missed Luton last week as a backup QB system play.
Tampa Bay -6 at Carolina. You guys know I love Bridgewater ATS, and he came through again last week against the Chiefs. So it pains me to do this, but Tampa Bay is the right side on this one. Carolina fresh off a great showing against the best team in the NFL, and Tampa Bay having an awful loss on MNF. Normally I don't like betting on the team who won and covered the first meeting earlier in the season either, but look at 2 things. #1 TB should never have covered that line in the first game. They were up by 7 trying to kill the clock in the 4th in a close game, then Fournette busted for a 50 yard TD. #2. This line has been adjusted heavily. TB was a 7 pt favorite at home in the first meeting, and shouldn't have covered. They are now a 6 pt favorite ON THE ROAD, with TB off its worst game of the season and Carolina off one of its best games. Brady has some nice record of bounce backs after bad prime time defeats. Maybe he can prove that New England's success at not losing multiple games in a row was him and not Belicheck.
Leans:
Arizona -1.5 vs. Buffalo. Arizona off a loss, and Buffalo off a drubbing of Seattle last week. Not much here I guess. Arizona beat Seattle in a huge win, then lost the next week. Maybe Buffalo does the same thing. Or maybe logic could play out.
Arizona played Seattle 2 games ago and squeaked by with a narrow 3 point win in OT. Buffalo played Seattle last week and whooped them pretty bad. It wasn't as close as the 11 point margin. Buffalo was winning by 21 pts until garbage time. So similar opponent, Buffalo beat them by more, makes logical sense right?
LA Chargers +1.5 at Miami. This is where I kinda want to law of average it. Take the other side of a +1.5 on the road. Chargers can't seem to win a game, even though they look great in every game they play. Miami off two very nice wins. The complete fluke of a game vs. the Rams (I had Miami), and beat Arizona on the road last week. 3 in a row for Miami seems like a stretch. And if you cover up the teams, a 5-3 team should be giving more than 1.5 to a 2-6 team. That's pretty obvious.
Philly -4 at NY Giants. Just glanced at this game and it seems really bit off. Philly pulled off a miracle win at home against the Giants on TNF. They didn't cover as a 5 point home favorite. Yet Philly is on the road this time, and they're a 4 point favorite? The Giants just won last week. Wentz had 4 turnovers against Dallas last game and looked awful. What am I missing? Seems like the Giants should be a small favorite or Philly a small underdog, like 1 or 1.5 pts. Not even 3, not even 3 and the hook? Full 4 pts?
Cincy +7 at Pittsburgh. So an 8-0 team, the only undefeated team, is only giving 7 at home to a 2-5 team? They're basically saying this would be a pickem game if it was in Cincy. They really think Big Ben missing practice makes that much difference? He shoulda been resting anyways, with that gimpy knee.
Wait Wait Wait Wait. So you're telling me I could do a teaser or a ML parlay and get even money if all I do is bet Pittsburgh (who is 8-0) to beat Cincy, and Baltimore to just win at New England? Hmmmm.........
Soooo I guess New England +7 vs. Baltimore is a lean then. One of these teams should lose or the books are going to lose a ton of money. Pittsburgh line may actually be fair with the way they played against Dallas last week and Big Ben missing practice all week. New England almost lost to the Jets on MNF, a team that is sucking for Trevor Lawrence. And they're on a short week too.
I was reading an article where Lamar Jackson was saying how frustrated he was that the defenses this season have been calling out his plays. "Cincinnati Bengals safety Jessie Bates said Jackson only wants to throw the ball to wide receiver Marquise "Hollywood" Brown and tight end Mark Andrews."
This is a very odd week in that I like all the away teams.
Normally the LA Rams -1.5 would be a play, but I never win when I bet against Seattle and Wilson. I only consider betting them when they're underdogs, and they cover every single time.
Last Week 5-1 (Unofficially)
2020 Season
15-11-1 Plays
13-13-1 Leans
Let's get some thoughts down and see if I can put something together this week. I probably won't play anything at this point, but let's see where it goes.
Plays:
Denver +3.5 at LV Raiders. I'll keep going with the trend. Denver has not lost 2 in a row ATS in a season and a half. Denver is competent on offense, and the Raiders have their moments, but their offense is on and off and their defense hasn't been good for years.
Green Bay -13.5 vs. Jacksonville. This is rare for me to laying this much chalk, but it's a good spot. Green Bay fresh off a 6 pt loss to Minnesota, where frankly the game wasn't that close. Jake Luton had a pretty shocking performance last week, tossing for over 300 yards on the road in his first start. Green Bay should have it's way with Jacksonville's defense, and even if it becomes a shootout, Green Bay should pull away by the end. This is also the backup QB in his second game. The backup QB system only works for the first game. Surprised I missed Luton last week as a backup QB system play.
Tampa Bay -6 at Carolina. You guys know I love Bridgewater ATS, and he came through again last week against the Chiefs. So it pains me to do this, but Tampa Bay is the right side on this one. Carolina fresh off a great showing against the best team in the NFL, and Tampa Bay having an awful loss on MNF. Normally I don't like betting on the team who won and covered the first meeting earlier in the season either, but look at 2 things. #1 TB should never have covered that line in the first game. They were up by 7 trying to kill the clock in the 4th in a close game, then Fournette busted for a 50 yard TD. #2. This line has been adjusted heavily. TB was a 7 pt favorite at home in the first meeting, and shouldn't have covered. They are now a 6 pt favorite ON THE ROAD, with TB off its worst game of the season and Carolina off one of its best games. Brady has some nice record of bounce backs after bad prime time defeats. Maybe he can prove that New England's success at not losing multiple games in a row was him and not Belicheck.
Leans:
Arizona -1.5 vs. Buffalo. Arizona off a loss, and Buffalo off a drubbing of Seattle last week. Not much here I guess. Arizona beat Seattle in a huge win, then lost the next week. Maybe Buffalo does the same thing. Or maybe logic could play out.
Arizona played Seattle 2 games ago and squeaked by with a narrow 3 point win in OT. Buffalo played Seattle last week and whooped them pretty bad. It wasn't as close as the 11 point margin. Buffalo was winning by 21 pts until garbage time. So similar opponent, Buffalo beat them by more, makes logical sense right?
LA Chargers +1.5 at Miami. This is where I kinda want to law of average it. Take the other side of a +1.5 on the road. Chargers can't seem to win a game, even though they look great in every game they play. Miami off two very nice wins. The complete fluke of a game vs. the Rams (I had Miami), and beat Arizona on the road last week. 3 in a row for Miami seems like a stretch. And if you cover up the teams, a 5-3 team should be giving more than 1.5 to a 2-6 team. That's pretty obvious.
Philly -4 at NY Giants. Just glanced at this game and it seems really bit off. Philly pulled off a miracle win at home against the Giants on TNF. They didn't cover as a 5 point home favorite. Yet Philly is on the road this time, and they're a 4 point favorite? The Giants just won last week. Wentz had 4 turnovers against Dallas last game and looked awful. What am I missing? Seems like the Giants should be a small favorite or Philly a small underdog, like 1 or 1.5 pts. Not even 3, not even 3 and the hook? Full 4 pts?
Cincy +7 at Pittsburgh. So an 8-0 team, the only undefeated team, is only giving 7 at home to a 2-5 team? They're basically saying this would be a pickem game if it was in Cincy. They really think Big Ben missing practice makes that much difference? He shoulda been resting anyways, with that gimpy knee.
Wait Wait Wait Wait. So you're telling me I could do a teaser or a ML parlay and get even money if all I do is bet Pittsburgh (who is 8-0) to beat Cincy, and Baltimore to just win at New England? Hmmmm.........
Soooo I guess New England +7 vs. Baltimore is a lean then. One of these teams should lose or the books are going to lose a ton of money. Pittsburgh line may actually be fair with the way they played against Dallas last week and Big Ben missing practice all week. New England almost lost to the Jets on MNF, a team that is sucking for Trevor Lawrence. And they're on a short week too.
I was reading an article where Lamar Jackson was saying how frustrated he was that the defenses this season have been calling out his plays. "Cincinnati Bengals safety Jessie Bates said Jackson only wants to throw the ball to wide receiver Marquise "Hollywood" Brown and tight end Mark Andrews."
This is a very odd week in that I like all the away teams.
Normally the LA Rams -1.5 would be a play, but I never win when I bet against Seattle and Wilson. I only consider betting them when they're underdogs, and they cover every single time.
Last Week 5-1 (Unofficially)
2020 Season
15-11-1 Plays
13-13-1 Leans
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