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When I got to the casino I got kinda shook from all the line movement, so I changed my parlay last minute. Hopefully it works out.
Plays:
Miami +3.5 vs. LA Rams. Tua's first start. I know it was probably a part of some long term master plan to have him start after the bye week, but I think it's more than that. Fitzpatrick is the leader of that team, and has played admirably well leading them to a 3-3 record. He was heartbroken when finding out about the QB switch. I don't think the coach and front office would risk killing team morale if Tua wasn't at least as good, if not better than Fitzpatrick in practice. This could also be a case of the Rams playing down to the competition, but Miami has a middling record. I'll take Tua as the headlines will be that these teams didn't have the guts to pull the plug on their non-franchise QBs and let two of them (Tua and Herbert) slip through their fingers in the last draft (ahem Washington Football Team).
Tenn/Cincy OVER 51. Tenn has been hot and the loss last week could have gone either way. Unfortunately, the defense has been pretty bad lately. Allowing at least 27 points to Jacksonville, Minnesota, Houston, and Pittsburgh. I like Cincy to keep it close, so Tannehill should have to fire up for most of the game. Titans put up at least 30 and Bengals put up at least 24-27. This game is actually on hold for right now. Weather isn't going to be great in Cincinatti and I don't like that the total is furiously dropping. I regretfully kept it as one of my picks because I did a little google search and 20 MPH winds affect offenses, but not as much as it people make it seem. I think Tenn is almost like this year's Tampa Bay. The games keep going over even though the oddsmakers keep raising the lines.
Baltimore -4 vs. Pittsburgh. Someone I follow really likes this game. I didn't really think about it too much, nor did I really want to play it. These games are always close, and I had giving more than 3. But a closer look, you've got 2 teams with similar records, but one of them is unbeaten. To me, this line should be -2.5, or -3 at the most. 3.5 is kinda silly, and I'm showing the line moving up to 4.5 now? Hmmmm. Baltimore is a good home team, always have been. They're missing Ingram, but Edwards and J.K. Dobbins are probably better anyways.
New England +4.5 at Buffalo. Based on records alone, this line should be higher. Buffalo has stumbled a bit lately, but looking at the records alone, this should be at least a -4.5, 5.5, 6.5 type of game. Historically New England has owned Buffalo. I believe the only loss in the last 10 was with Jacoby Brissett. Edelman's out. Harry has a concussion. Cam just got benched. I think they'll find a way this week, as I continue to chase the Patriots this season. I've also learned that a very respected member of another forum has a system where New England would be the play this week. Weather isn't going to be good in this one either, and New England excels with like 5 RBs, and Buffalo struggles to run the ball.
The original plan was to have New England as apart of my 3 game parlay, but I switched it to Miami instead due to the line movement on both. When I got the casino New England +4 had just moved to even money and the Miami line dropped from +4 to +3.5 and the 3.5 was -120, so I went with that instead.
I also threw KC ML -2000 onto it. Added 6% to the payout so I figured it was worth it. Won't count that towards the record.
Leans:
Denver +3.5 vs. LA Chargers. Denver hasn't lost 2 in a row ATS since week 4 of 2019.
Indy/Detroit OVER 49.5. Total seems kinda high with Indy's high ranked defense, and ineptitude to score touchdowns at times.
Dallas +11 at Philly. I like betting on the backup QB, and I believe the last 3 have lost. This is 3rd string though, so it may not fit with the usual system. It's a decent spot as people have been laughing at the no name Italian guy about to make his first start.
2020 Season
13-10 Plays
11-12-1 Leans
Plays:
Miami +3.5 vs. LA Rams. Tua's first start. I know it was probably a part of some long term master plan to have him start after the bye week, but I think it's more than that. Fitzpatrick is the leader of that team, and has played admirably well leading them to a 3-3 record. He was heartbroken when finding out about the QB switch. I don't think the coach and front office would risk killing team morale if Tua wasn't at least as good, if not better than Fitzpatrick in practice. This could also be a case of the Rams playing down to the competition, but Miami has a middling record. I'll take Tua as the headlines will be that these teams didn't have the guts to pull the plug on their non-franchise QBs and let two of them (Tua and Herbert) slip through their fingers in the last draft (ahem Washington Football Team).
Tenn/Cincy OVER 51. Tenn has been hot and the loss last week could have gone either way. Unfortunately, the defense has been pretty bad lately. Allowing at least 27 points to Jacksonville, Minnesota, Houston, and Pittsburgh. I like Cincy to keep it close, so Tannehill should have to fire up for most of the game. Titans put up at least 30 and Bengals put up at least 24-27. This game is actually on hold for right now. Weather isn't going to be great in Cincinatti and I don't like that the total is furiously dropping. I regretfully kept it as one of my picks because I did a little google search and 20 MPH winds affect offenses, but not as much as it people make it seem. I think Tenn is almost like this year's Tampa Bay. The games keep going over even though the oddsmakers keep raising the lines.
Baltimore -4 vs. Pittsburgh. Someone I follow really likes this game. I didn't really think about it too much, nor did I really want to play it. These games are always close, and I had giving more than 3. But a closer look, you've got 2 teams with similar records, but one of them is unbeaten. To me, this line should be -2.5, or -3 at the most. 3.5 is kinda silly, and I'm showing the line moving up to 4.5 now? Hmmmm. Baltimore is a good home team, always have been. They're missing Ingram, but Edwards and J.K. Dobbins are probably better anyways.
New England +4.5 at Buffalo. Based on records alone, this line should be higher. Buffalo has stumbled a bit lately, but looking at the records alone, this should be at least a -4.5, 5.5, 6.5 type of game. Historically New England has owned Buffalo. I believe the only loss in the last 10 was with Jacoby Brissett. Edelman's out. Harry has a concussion. Cam just got benched. I think they'll find a way this week, as I continue to chase the Patriots this season. I've also learned that a very respected member of another forum has a system where New England would be the play this week. Weather isn't going to be good in this one either, and New England excels with like 5 RBs, and Buffalo struggles to run the ball.
The original plan was to have New England as apart of my 3 game parlay, but I switched it to Miami instead due to the line movement on both. When I got the casino New England +4 had just moved to even money and the Miami line dropped from +4 to +3.5 and the 3.5 was -120, so I went with that instead.
I also threw KC ML -2000 onto it. Added 6% to the payout so I figured it was worth it. Won't count that towards the record.
Leans:
Denver +3.5 vs. LA Chargers. Denver hasn't lost 2 in a row ATS since week 4 of 2019.
Indy/Detroit OVER 49.5. Total seems kinda high with Indy's high ranked defense, and ineptitude to score touchdowns at times.
Dallas +11 at Philly. I like betting on the backup QB, and I believe the last 3 have lost. This is 3rd string though, so it may not fit with the usual system. It's a decent spot as people have been laughing at the no name Italian guy about to make his first start.
2020 Season
13-10 Plays
11-12-1 Leans
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