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I've got some time and I'm starting to think about this week. So I'm going to put my notes and initial thoughts for now.
I don't play Thursday Nights. Too sloppy of games and I don't get a chance to put anything in until the weekend anyways.
Plays:
Washington +7 vs. LA Rams. Boy do I hate betting Washington. This is the backup QB in their first start system. Though we've seen this guy play for pretty much a full season, so it doesn't fit the system very well. Better examples of the system would be unknowns like Nick Mullins, Brett Rypien, and Justin Herbert (at the time because we hadn't even seen him play in the preseason yet).
If Washington doesn't get the win this week, everyone will be calling Ron Rivera a racist for pulling the short hook on Haskins. The NFL really needs the Redskins, ahem Washington Football Team, to win this week (conspiracy theory). The Rams are a team Washington historically plays pretty well against. Just need to get pressure on Goff and make him make mistakes.
I'm being careful with this one. Everyone, good and bad is taking Washington and that's usually a bad sign.
SF/Miami OVER 49.5. This line seems pretty high considering San Fran can barely throw the ball and their defense is supposedly still pretty good despite losing Nick Bosa. Wow the line went up! Okay definitely a pick now.
Minnesota +7 vs. Seattle. Arguably the hottest team in the league in Seattle. This is more of just a hunch. I looked at some previous games and Seattle isn't that good at covering -6 or 7 spreads. Still thinking about this one.
NY Giants +9.5 vs Dallas. This is just a lean for now. I need to think about this one for now. Cowboys giving 9.5 points in a division game with THAT defense. Moving this game up. Several people I trust like the G-Men in this one, and I think I'll roll with them. It was a lean anyways.
Leans:
Indy -1 at Cleveland. I'm reluctantly leaning Indy in this one as it's a similar scenario as last week. One that I like, but I hate betting that again two weeks in a row. It appears that everyone is on the Colts on this one, which makes it dangerous. But this is a slight letdown spot as Cleveland did have it's biggest prime time win in probably a decade last week. But it's a fair line. Colts would be -7 if they were at home against another 3-1 team.
Philly +7 at Pittsburgh. First place Philadelphia finally got their first win last week. Whenever I see multiple - 7 lines, I usually look for who I could couple together to get even money on a parlay/teaser if I was a fan just betting. I'd probably just pair Pittsburgh with Seattle and hope for the best. Pittsburgh has a solid team, but they haven't exactly been beating people badly this season. All their games have been close. Big Ben said they got the short end of the stick because they, and particularly him, are still getting back in rhythm. I'll take the points before Ben actually gets into that rhythm.
Moved Philly to a lean. Seeing too much stuff I don't like.
Other Plays:
Houston -6.5 vs Jacksonville. The new coach system play. Let's see if it works as it usually does. I hate to give more than 3, but if that's what the line is then so be it. The Hopkinsless Texans get their first win this week. Scratch this. I'm no longer playing this game at all.
Houston needs to sign Antonio Brown or their season is over. And seeing as though the players stopped the signing of Earl Thomas, I doubt they'd be eager to sign a nutjob like AB.
NY Giants/Dallas OVER 54. Seems like i'm taking the obvious here but Dallas's defense is awful. And The Giants are capable of big plays with Slayton.
New England -11 vs. Denver. New England as a double digit favorite with probably a backup QB huh? The backup QB system only works for the first start. Rypien will be on his second, and if it's a relatively unknown QB, they typically lose those. Belicheck's defense alone will win this one. The QB won't have to do much except hand off and throw screen passes. I hope it's Stidham this week. I still remember him playing lights out in the preseason, but he hasn't had much success in regular season games.
New England pick is subject to change. I'm seeing -11 on a site, but I think -5 on another because the line is off pending Cam Newton's status.
2020 NFL Season
8-9 Plays
3-4-1 Leans
0-0-1 Money Lines
I don't play Thursday Nights. Too sloppy of games and I don't get a chance to put anything in until the weekend anyways.
Plays:
Washington +7 vs. LA Rams. Boy do I hate betting Washington. This is the backup QB in their first start system. Though we've seen this guy play for pretty much a full season, so it doesn't fit the system very well. Better examples of the system would be unknowns like Nick Mullins, Brett Rypien, and Justin Herbert (at the time because we hadn't even seen him play in the preseason yet).
If Washington doesn't get the win this week, everyone will be calling Ron Rivera a racist for pulling the short hook on Haskins. The NFL really needs the Redskins, ahem Washington Football Team, to win this week (conspiracy theory). The Rams are a team Washington historically plays pretty well against. Just need to get pressure on Goff and make him make mistakes.
I'm being careful with this one. Everyone, good and bad is taking Washington and that's usually a bad sign.
SF/Miami OVER 49.5. This line seems pretty high considering San Fran can barely throw the ball and their defense is supposedly still pretty good despite losing Nick Bosa. Wow the line went up! Okay definitely a pick now.
Minnesota +7 vs. Seattle. Arguably the hottest team in the league in Seattle. This is more of just a hunch. I looked at some previous games and Seattle isn't that good at covering -6 or 7 spreads. Still thinking about this one.
NY Giants +9.5 vs Dallas. This is just a lean for now. I need to think about this one for now. Cowboys giving 9.5 points in a division game with THAT defense. Moving this game up. Several people I trust like the G-Men in this one, and I think I'll roll with them. It was a lean anyways.
Leans:
Indy -1 at Cleveland. I'm reluctantly leaning Indy in this one as it's a similar scenario as last week. One that I like, but I hate betting that again two weeks in a row. It appears that everyone is on the Colts on this one, which makes it dangerous. But this is a slight letdown spot as Cleveland did have it's biggest prime time win in probably a decade last week. But it's a fair line. Colts would be -7 if they were at home against another 3-1 team.
Philly +7 at Pittsburgh. First place Philadelphia finally got their first win last week. Whenever I see multiple - 7 lines, I usually look for who I could couple together to get even money on a parlay/teaser if I was a fan just betting. I'd probably just pair Pittsburgh with Seattle and hope for the best. Pittsburgh has a solid team, but they haven't exactly been beating people badly this season. All their games have been close. Big Ben said they got the short end of the stick because they, and particularly him, are still getting back in rhythm. I'll take the points before Ben actually gets into that rhythm.
Moved Philly to a lean. Seeing too much stuff I don't like.
Other Plays:
Houston -6.5 vs Jacksonville. The new coach system play. Let's see if it works as it usually does. I hate to give more than 3, but if that's what the line is then so be it. The Hopkinsless Texans get their first win this week. Scratch this. I'm no longer playing this game at all.
Houston needs to sign Antonio Brown or their season is over. And seeing as though the players stopped the signing of Earl Thomas, I doubt they'd be eager to sign a nutjob like AB.
NY Giants/Dallas OVER 54. Seems like i'm taking the obvious here but Dallas's defense is awful. And The Giants are capable of big plays with Slayton.
New England -11 vs. Denver. New England as a double digit favorite with probably a backup QB huh? The backup QB system only works for the first start. Rypien will be on his second, and if it's a relatively unknown QB, they typically lose those. Belicheck's defense alone will win this one. The QB won't have to do much except hand off and throw screen passes. I hope it's Stidham this week. I still remember him playing lights out in the preseason, but he hasn't had much success in regular season games.
New England pick is subject to change. I'm seeing -11 on a site, but I think -5 on another because the line is off pending Cam Newton's status.
2020 NFL Season
8-9 Plays
3-4-1 Leans
0-0-1 Money Lines
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