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I actually probably won't be able to make it to the casino this weekend to put these in, but they are my initial thoughts.
Plays:
Colts -2.5 at Chicago. Shouldn't the line be flipped here? Foles is the new starter, lead an incredible comeback last week and has everything clicking. Colts won last week as well but they were playing the Jets. So a 2-1 team at a 3-0 team and the 2-1 team is favored? Hmmmm okay.
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 vs. Buffalo. It is a fair line, but sometimes when you basically get a pickem it complicates things. The Bills are coming off an emotional rolller coaster victory last week. Fits as close to the definition of a Letdown Spot as there is.
Also just realized that the Raiders are playing the Bills are playing the Chiefs on Thursday. Possible look ahead spot.
Jacksonville +2.5 at Cincy. Jacksonville looked awful on Thursday night, but they're coming off a long week. DJ Chark will be back, and Cincy is coming off a game that took the entire OT. So they basically played another quarter of football last Sunday. I like Minshew to bounce back this week.
NY Giants +13.5 vs. LA Rams. Two 14 point underdogs this week, and I think the Giants are the one that covers. The Rams usually play down to their competition, and it's a high consensus game. It's more of a hunch than having much logic to it.
Leans:
San Francisco -7 vs. Philly. This is a classic "they need the win" game. Usually I fade the loser of the SB for most of the season, but how the heck is San Fran -7 with a backup QB and missing their best defensive player for the season? I guess Philly looked pretty bad tying Cincy last week and San Fran is home. But I lean Niners here. This line should be Niners -2.5 or 3. The highest I could conceivably see it is -4.5. The full 7? That's way too many points.
Atlanta +7.5 vs. Green Bay. I guess one of these teams that must get a win will get one this week. This is a good ML parlay breaker. Allen Lazard is out indefinitely, so Rodgers has even less options beyond peppering Davante Adams. I'll take the points, but I'm calling for the outright win.
Houston -3.5 vs. Minnesota. Two teams desperate for a win, and one of them will get it. If you look at my previous write-ups you'd see how down I am on Houston this season without Deandre Hopkins. But this game has pickem written all over it (-3 for the home team). I feel like there's too much value with the hook on Minnesota, so I lean Houston here.
Washington +14 vs. Baltimore. No real feel here. Baltimore should bounce back from that MNF loss, but this is the Highway rivalry. They usually play every preseason and Washington always plays them tough somehow. It could be a personal thing. A lot of Washington fans have joined the Baltimore bandwagon since they've been so successful for so many years, and had a lot of great players. Washington has been so bad for so long and it must be frustrating having fans join the team an hour away. They're stadiums are actually both in Maryland.
Scratch this game. It's a no play. The line keeps moving up, and Washington's best player is banged up. Baltimore probably bounces back hard.
Will update the record and stuff later as well as add some picks.
Late edit was to adjust my Atlanta line. I got 7.5.
2020 NFL Season Record
6-7 Plays
3-2 Leans
Money Lines 0-0-1
Plays:
Colts -2.5 at Chicago. Shouldn't the line be flipped here? Foles is the new starter, lead an incredible comeback last week and has everything clicking. Colts won last week as well but they were playing the Jets. So a 2-1 team at a 3-0 team and the 2-1 team is favored? Hmmmm okay.
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 vs. Buffalo. It is a fair line, but sometimes when you basically get a pickem it complicates things. The Bills are coming off an emotional rolller coaster victory last week. Fits as close to the definition of a Letdown Spot as there is.
Also just realized that the Raiders are playing the Bills are playing the Chiefs on Thursday. Possible look ahead spot.
Jacksonville +2.5 at Cincy. Jacksonville looked awful on Thursday night, but they're coming off a long week. DJ Chark will be back, and Cincy is coming off a game that took the entire OT. So they basically played another quarter of football last Sunday. I like Minshew to bounce back this week.
NY Giants +13.5 vs. LA Rams. Two 14 point underdogs this week, and I think the Giants are the one that covers. The Rams usually play down to their competition, and it's a high consensus game. It's more of a hunch than having much logic to it.
Leans:
San Francisco -7 vs. Philly. This is a classic "they need the win" game. Usually I fade the loser of the SB for most of the season, but how the heck is San Fran -7 with a backup QB and missing their best defensive player for the season? I guess Philly looked pretty bad tying Cincy last week and San Fran is home. But I lean Niners here. This line should be Niners -2.5 or 3. The highest I could conceivably see it is -4.5. The full 7? That's way too many points.
Atlanta +7.5 vs. Green Bay. I guess one of these teams that must get a win will get one this week. This is a good ML parlay breaker. Allen Lazard is out indefinitely, so Rodgers has even less options beyond peppering Davante Adams. I'll take the points, but I'm calling for the outright win.
Houston -3.5 vs. Minnesota. Two teams desperate for a win, and one of them will get it. If you look at my previous write-ups you'd see how down I am on Houston this season without Deandre Hopkins. But this game has pickem written all over it (-3 for the home team). I feel like there's too much value with the hook on Minnesota, so I lean Houston here.
Washington +14 vs. Baltimore. No real feel here. Baltimore should bounce back from that MNF loss, but this is the Highway rivalry. They usually play every preseason and Washington always plays them tough somehow. It could be a personal thing. A lot of Washington fans have joined the Baltimore bandwagon since they've been so successful for so many years, and had a lot of great players. Washington has been so bad for so long and it must be frustrating having fans join the team an hour away. They're stadiums are actually both in Maryland.
Scratch this game. It's a no play. The line keeps moving up, and Washington's best player is banged up. Baltimore probably bounces back hard.
Will update the record and stuff later as well as add some picks.
Late edit was to adjust my Atlanta line. I got 7.5.
2020 NFL Season Record
6-7 Plays
3-2 Leans
Money Lines 0-0-1
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