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Had a pretty good week 1, but didn't get a chance to get to the casino in time to play anything.
I figured I could get my thoughts together here and participate on the site since it's been quiet. So I'll be posting when I get the chance. I may not play every week, or even most weeks.
Here's my week 2. This post will be edited up until game time. No particular order for now.
Plays:
Denver +7 at Pittsburgh - Big Ben is still shaking off rust. Didn't look good to me last week, but you don't have to do much against that Giants defense. Lock as inconsistent as he is, does have potential. I see a close game in the teens for both teams.
Tennessee -7.5 vs. Jacksonville - I've had nasty experience betting the Jags after they play a good game. This team has weapons on paper, but sometimes they're just abysmal. Tennessee appears to have their number at home recently. I'll fade Jax on the big win, and take the team that had a very sloppy win in primetime. A.J. Brown is out, but Tannehill has been playing efficiently, and should be able to run the ball effectively and hit Jonnu Smith and let him do the work.
Detroit +6.5 at Green Bay - Line is really shocking, and high consensus. But Detroit has covered the last 6 against Green Bay somehow. With a 40 point explosion last week, the casual bettors should be all over Green Bay again vs. Detroit's historically bad defense. I've had Davante Adams on my fantasy teams two years in a row, and Rodgers apparently has no trust in anyone else. If Detroit can somehow figure out how to cover that guy, they should be able to keep it close.
Baltimore -7.5 at Houston - One of the main reasons my pick of the week last week was Arizona was because of how putrid Houston looked on opening night. Houston should have beaten KC twice last year. What changed? Deandre Hopkins is no longer on the team is what changed. That guy is a difference maker, and it showed for both Houston and Arizona. Hopkins has put up huge numbers in the past even with guys like Brian Hoyer as his QB. Houston is a bad team without him. The Ravens are good as favorites.
Philly -1 vs. LA Rams - The Rams are a tough team to figure out because they're so hot and cold. They have a great coach, a competent QB, and weapons. Wentz is getting his tackle back this week. Looking for a bounce back after blowing that 17 pt lead last week.
Indianapolis -3 vs. Minnesota. Puzzling line. After what happened to indy last week against Jacksonville, how can vegas put this is a pickem game (Indy gives the FG cuz they're at home). Though Minny lost, it was to green bay, and they put up big numbers in the loss. Indy giving a full 3 here and the line actually moving to the hook? Got no choice but to take Indy here.
NY Giants / Chicago OVER 42. System play. But the system went like 0-5 last year so I'm losing confidence in it.
Leans
Tampa Bay -8.5 vs Carolina - Bruce Arians really put Brady on blast in the media this week. If that doesn't light a fire under that champion, I dunno what will. New Orleans defense was underrated and gave Brady fits, but Carolina's is a joke. Brady should pick them apart.
I moved this game to the leans section because I have a couple of regular joe buddies that are thinking the exact same on this one. Every year there's that one team that went big in the offseason and were suppose to be good, but end up being a dud. Is Tampa this year's team?
New England +4 at Seattle - Team Total for New England is 9 this season. They won 11 games with Matt Cassell as their QB. They won games with Jacoby Brissett as well. Cam plays them tough, and after all that praise Belichick gave Wilson this week, I'm sure he's watched a ton of film and come up with a solid game plan. If Cam can stay healthy, he's still an athletic specimen that's a top tier QB.
New Orleans -5.5 at Raiders - I've gotten burned so many times taking the Raiders on short lines. They simply have no defense. I know the Raiders will be hyped up playing in their first game in the new stadium, and Michael Thomas is out. Still, even in Brees' old age, he should be able to carve that Raiders defense up.
Other Plays:
GB/DET Under 49.5. After that offensive explosion by GB last week, I'll take the under vs. a historically bad defense.
NE/SEA Over 44.5. I expect a competitive game, and Wilson is the best at going score for score when he needs to. Cam is no slouch either.
PHI/LA Rams UNDER 45.5.
Indy/Minn Over 49.
2019 - 2020 NFL Season (Posted Plays)
15-8 Plays
7-6 leans
2-1 Heavy Money Lines
I figured I could get my thoughts together here and participate on the site since it's been quiet. So I'll be posting when I get the chance. I may not play every week, or even most weeks.
Here's my week 2. This post will be edited up until game time. No particular order for now.
Plays:
Denver +7 at Pittsburgh - Big Ben is still shaking off rust. Didn't look good to me last week, but you don't have to do much against that Giants defense. Lock as inconsistent as he is, does have potential. I see a close game in the teens for both teams.
Tennessee -7.5 vs. Jacksonville - I've had nasty experience betting the Jags after they play a good game. This team has weapons on paper, but sometimes they're just abysmal. Tennessee appears to have their number at home recently. I'll fade Jax on the big win, and take the team that had a very sloppy win in primetime. A.J. Brown is out, but Tannehill has been playing efficiently, and should be able to run the ball effectively and hit Jonnu Smith and let him do the work.
Detroit +6.5 at Green Bay - Line is really shocking, and high consensus. But Detroit has covered the last 6 against Green Bay somehow. With a 40 point explosion last week, the casual bettors should be all over Green Bay again vs. Detroit's historically bad defense. I've had Davante Adams on my fantasy teams two years in a row, and Rodgers apparently has no trust in anyone else. If Detroit can somehow figure out how to cover that guy, they should be able to keep it close.
Baltimore -7.5 at Houston - One of the main reasons my pick of the week last week was Arizona was because of how putrid Houston looked on opening night. Houston should have beaten KC twice last year. What changed? Deandre Hopkins is no longer on the team is what changed. That guy is a difference maker, and it showed for both Houston and Arizona. Hopkins has put up huge numbers in the past even with guys like Brian Hoyer as his QB. Houston is a bad team without him. The Ravens are good as favorites.
Philly -1 vs. LA Rams - The Rams are a tough team to figure out because they're so hot and cold. They have a great coach, a competent QB, and weapons. Wentz is getting his tackle back this week. Looking for a bounce back after blowing that 17 pt lead last week.
Indianapolis -3 vs. Minnesota. Puzzling line. After what happened to indy last week against Jacksonville, how can vegas put this is a pickem game (Indy gives the FG cuz they're at home). Though Minny lost, it was to green bay, and they put up big numbers in the loss. Indy giving a full 3 here and the line actually moving to the hook? Got no choice but to take Indy here.
NY Giants / Chicago OVER 42. System play. But the system went like 0-5 last year so I'm losing confidence in it.
Leans
Tampa Bay -8.5 vs Carolina - Bruce Arians really put Brady on blast in the media this week. If that doesn't light a fire under that champion, I dunno what will. New Orleans defense was underrated and gave Brady fits, but Carolina's is a joke. Brady should pick them apart.
I moved this game to the leans section because I have a couple of regular joe buddies that are thinking the exact same on this one. Every year there's that one team that went big in the offseason and were suppose to be good, but end up being a dud. Is Tampa this year's team?
New England +4 at Seattle - Team Total for New England is 9 this season. They won 11 games with Matt Cassell as their QB. They won games with Jacoby Brissett as well. Cam plays them tough, and after all that praise Belichick gave Wilson this week, I'm sure he's watched a ton of film and come up with a solid game plan. If Cam can stay healthy, he's still an athletic specimen that's a top tier QB.
New Orleans -5.5 at Raiders - I've gotten burned so many times taking the Raiders on short lines. They simply have no defense. I know the Raiders will be hyped up playing in their first game in the new stadium, and Michael Thomas is out. Still, even in Brees' old age, he should be able to carve that Raiders defense up.
Other Plays:
GB/DET Under 49.5. After that offensive explosion by GB last week, I'll take the under vs. a historically bad defense.
NE/SEA Over 44.5. I expect a competitive game, and Wilson is the best at going score for score when he needs to. Cam is no slouch either.
PHI/LA Rams UNDER 45.5.
Indy/Minn Over 49.
2019 - 2020 NFL Season (Posted Plays)
15-8 Plays
7-6 leans
2-1 Heavy Money Lines
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