Tweet
Went to the casino today to put in a couple of bowl game plays and figured I'd do a parlay. Haven't played NFL since week 12, which was a bad week, but rules are rules so updated record is:
9-7 Picks, 3-1 Money Lines, 5-5 Leans
Week 17 will always be the hardest week to play IMO, and these are all pretty much leans. It's pretty much a crapshoot but here goes:
Plays (They're in Order):
Tenn -3.5 vs. Houston
Deshaun Watson is banged up, and Houston doesn't have much to play for other than seeding. Hence why Tenn is giving the hook on the road. I think Houston tries for about 5 minutes, then they lay down. This game isn't even close and Tenn blows them out.
Atlanta PICKEM vs Tampa Bay
Atlanta's defense has really shown me something the last month or so, and proven that they're not a one week wonder. They've actually been a pretty good team as of late, so much that the head coach and GMs jobs were officially saved. Winston is fresh off his 4 pick performance. The loss of Godwin and Evans was pretty apparent last week. Perhaps some extra reps will allow Jameis to get better rapport with his replacement receivers, but I don't think it was just a timing thing. His balls were coming out wobbly and he's still playing with a broken thumb. Based on records, the line really should be Tampa Bay -2.5 or 3, but it's pickem so I'll take Atlanta on the short line.
Buffalo / NY Jets UNDER 36.5
I really just see this as a low scoring game like the first meeting. The line has been adjusted accordingly.
Baltimore +2/ML vs. Pittsburgh
I've been saying that Pittsburgh will be in the playoff hunt until the very end, and will either be in or one of the last teams out. In this case, they're on the outside looking in. One thing I've seen over the years is that the #1 seed is usually deep enough to win even with backups in week 17. Usually that's against a bad or mediocre team, but Pittsburgh is putting Duck Hodges back in out of necessity. These Pittsburgh backups have done admirable jobs, but they're not starters in this league. In a rivalry game, I expect the backups to play Pittsburgh tough, force turnovers, and officially knock them out of the playoffs.
Washington +11 vs. Dallas
Washington usually gives Dallas a hard time when they're double digit underdogs. Morale is way down following the Philly loss, and feeling like the season is already over. Case keenum is a very capable backup, but got benched for throwing too many picks earlier this season. Dallas probably gets it done, but in a close one.
Detroit +12.5 vs. Green Bay
Detroit's defense is so awful that Green Bay won't have to do much to win this one. Keeping Rodgers healthy is the name of the game here. I expect Aaron Jones to carry the load as he's been doing all season, and the packers score 21-24 points. Detroit keeps within swinging distance and put up 10-13 on a Packers defense that is pretty generous themselves. The outcome of the game itself will barely in question, but Detroit in a close cover.
Miami/New England Over 44.5
System Play. I believe the system is something like 0-2 or 0-3 this year.
Leans
New Orleans -13 vs. Carolina
The Saints are still playing for a first round bye. Dang this line would be -19 or 20 if it were in New Orleans! Drew Brees is a much better quarterback at home, especially in December, so that's the only concern. Carolina's awful, awful defense. Brees and Kamara should be able to carve them up. Will Grier, the guy with major accuracy issues in the preseason, which carried over into his first game. He'll hit a long ball or two, but the Saints run defense will be able to contain Mccafrey. Grier isn't even good enough for major garbage time points like in the first meeting. I expect Bridgewater to get into this game early 4th quarter, and him and Latavius Murray still outscore the Carolina starters.
Minnesota +3 vs. Chicago
Not sure what happened here, as the line changed from Minnesota -1 to +3 while I was standing in line. All Minnesota has to play for is seeding, if that, so maybe they pulled starters or something? They can't rest everyone though, and Minnesota's run defense is still elite. They force Trubisky to beat them through the air, but these aren't the Detroit Lions like what happened last time when a starter was pulled. Chicago has big questions at QB going into the off season.
Seattle +3.5 vs. San Francisco
I should have taken Seattle in the first meeting, and I'm doing it here with Seattle missing their top 3 RBs and having to pull Lynch out of retirement. Russell Wilson is still one of the best in the clutch, and despite having a great season, San Francisco still has consistency issues. I'll take the points here, like I should have done in the first meeting. Seattle's been playing terrible lately, and they don't want to be limping into the playoffs. San Fran is just happy to be there.
9-7 Picks, 3-1 Money Lines, 5-5 Leans
Week 17 will always be the hardest week to play IMO, and these are all pretty much leans. It's pretty much a crapshoot but here goes:
Plays (They're in Order):
Tenn -3.5 vs. Houston
Deshaun Watson is banged up, and Houston doesn't have much to play for other than seeding. Hence why Tenn is giving the hook on the road. I think Houston tries for about 5 minutes, then they lay down. This game isn't even close and Tenn blows them out.
Atlanta PICKEM vs Tampa Bay
Atlanta's defense has really shown me something the last month or so, and proven that they're not a one week wonder. They've actually been a pretty good team as of late, so much that the head coach and GMs jobs were officially saved. Winston is fresh off his 4 pick performance. The loss of Godwin and Evans was pretty apparent last week. Perhaps some extra reps will allow Jameis to get better rapport with his replacement receivers, but I don't think it was just a timing thing. His balls were coming out wobbly and he's still playing with a broken thumb. Based on records, the line really should be Tampa Bay -2.5 or 3, but it's pickem so I'll take Atlanta on the short line.
Buffalo / NY Jets UNDER 36.5
I really just see this as a low scoring game like the first meeting. The line has been adjusted accordingly.
Baltimore +2/ML vs. Pittsburgh
I've been saying that Pittsburgh will be in the playoff hunt until the very end, and will either be in or one of the last teams out. In this case, they're on the outside looking in. One thing I've seen over the years is that the #1 seed is usually deep enough to win even with backups in week 17. Usually that's against a bad or mediocre team, but Pittsburgh is putting Duck Hodges back in out of necessity. These Pittsburgh backups have done admirable jobs, but they're not starters in this league. In a rivalry game, I expect the backups to play Pittsburgh tough, force turnovers, and officially knock them out of the playoffs.
Washington +11 vs. Dallas
Washington usually gives Dallas a hard time when they're double digit underdogs. Morale is way down following the Philly loss, and feeling like the season is already over. Case keenum is a very capable backup, but got benched for throwing too many picks earlier this season. Dallas probably gets it done, but in a close one.
Detroit +12.5 vs. Green Bay
Detroit's defense is so awful that Green Bay won't have to do much to win this one. Keeping Rodgers healthy is the name of the game here. I expect Aaron Jones to carry the load as he's been doing all season, and the packers score 21-24 points. Detroit keeps within swinging distance and put up 10-13 on a Packers defense that is pretty generous themselves. The outcome of the game itself will barely in question, but Detroit in a close cover.
Miami/New England Over 44.5
System Play. I believe the system is something like 0-2 or 0-3 this year.
Leans
New Orleans -13 vs. Carolina
The Saints are still playing for a first round bye. Dang this line would be -19 or 20 if it were in New Orleans! Drew Brees is a much better quarterback at home, especially in December, so that's the only concern. Carolina's awful, awful defense. Brees and Kamara should be able to carve them up. Will Grier, the guy with major accuracy issues in the preseason, which carried over into his first game. He'll hit a long ball or two, but the Saints run defense will be able to contain Mccafrey. Grier isn't even good enough for major garbage time points like in the first meeting. I expect Bridgewater to get into this game early 4th quarter, and him and Latavius Murray still outscore the Carolina starters.
Minnesota +3 vs. Chicago
Not sure what happened here, as the line changed from Minnesota -1 to +3 while I was standing in line. All Minnesota has to play for is seeding, if that, so maybe they pulled starters or something? They can't rest everyone though, and Minnesota's run defense is still elite. They force Trubisky to beat them through the air, but these aren't the Detroit Lions like what happened last time when a starter was pulled. Chicago has big questions at QB going into the off season.
Seattle +3.5 vs. San Francisco
I should have taken Seattle in the first meeting, and I'm doing it here with Seattle missing their top 3 RBs and having to pull Lynch out of retirement. Russell Wilson is still one of the best in the clutch, and despite having a great season, San Francisco still has consistency issues. I'll take the points here, like I should have done in the first meeting. Seattle's been playing terrible lately, and they don't want to be limping into the playoffs. San Fran is just happy to be there.
Comment