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I'm back for week 10, and decided to give it another go. 2-1 last week on picks, 2-1 on leans (that I still played).
Tough loss last week with the London game HOU/JAX going wayyyy under and never having a chance. What I failed to realize was that JAX covered the first meeting, and that the line was the same (adjusted for home field advantage). Houston was the play, but I was too into JAX having a good game (coming off 2 nice wins) that I failed to realize that.
Edit: I changed my Pittsburgh pick from a play to a lean. I realize Pittsburgh getting +4 at home is actually pretty high. Pittsburgh shouldn't even by getting 3 IMO.
Cincinnati +10.5 vs. Baltimore
Normally I would not bet on the same outcome as the first game. Cincinnati covered earlier this year with the same line. Considering Baltimore is on the road this time, it means the line is even higher after being adjusted for home field advantage. This is a regular bet the backup QB play. I checked out this guy Finley's preseason stats, and he's actually been pretty good. Baltimore with the big win on Monday vs. the Patriots and go play a division rival that almost always plays them tough.
Miami +10.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
I'm a bit scared of betting this Miami team for a 5th consecutive cover. I knew they'd start a good covering streak, but didn't think it would make it this far. The same logic as last week when I bet Pitt over them. I read Indy tends to play down to their competition, and Miami may be the lowest of the low. Brissett will likely play as the line is not off. Indy is still 0-6 or whatever when T.Y. Hilton doesn't play. I'll ride that one more time, though it will get played out eventually. Hilton is actually suppose to be out about a month, and I do not expect them to lose every game, nor this game really. Indy has Jacksonville and Houston on deck, and I expect them to win at least one, if not both of those.
Edit: Brissett is officially out for this game. I was pretty shocked that the line barely moved when I put the bet in, but I got it in at 10.5 this afternoon. Hoyer can be good at times, but I think he'll struggle tomorrow.
New Orleans / Atlanta Over 51
In recent years, whenever these 2 teams play, the public loves to hammer the over, but they did play to an under in their last meeting, and both teams played unders in their last games. New Orleans defense has been really good this year, which has prevented the line from getting too inflated to the 54-56 range or above where it would usually be. It's been shocking to me what has happened to Atlanta over the past 2 years. That was the real SB hangover. I expect New Orleans to really put the hurt on Atlanta this week. Maybe 44-10 or something with everyone on New Orleans getting involved. If you play daily fantasy, check out Trequan Smith who is making his return this week. If Atlanta manages to show up and keep it close, it should push the number barely over as well.
Cleveland / Buffalo Over 40.5
At first glance, I liked Cleveland with the what the heck line at -3 with flip flopped records. But it seems a little too obvious to me. The Browns still have Mayfield, OBJ, Landry, Chubb, and that always sounds good vs. Buffalo who people won't give respect to, even when they make the playoffs this year. After watching the Buffalo/Washington game last week, I saw Adrian Peterson gash Buffalo's run defense and turn back the hands of time. I love AP and great for him, but he is NOT a good player at this point in his career. Washington was not able to run the ball effectively on most of the teams they played this year, and Buffalo let AP go for 108 yards on 18 carries!
If AP can do that, then Chubb should have a monster game this week. And when he's had big games, the Browns have been able to score lots of points. Another angle I'm seeing is that Mayfield outright said "I need to force feed OBJ." Well he's being covered by one of the best CBs in football this week. If you force feed OBJ, your playmaker will make a few great plays. But you will also likely throw a pick on your own end that way and give Buffalo a short field.
So a big game from Chubb, a few big plays to OBJ, and a couple of picks giving Buffalo a short field. Is that enough to push the game over 40.5? I'm not sure, but I hope so. My only concern is that those force fed picks will be drive killers on Buffalo's end.
I actually hedged this play on a parlay. I still think it goes over, but I'm also starting to like Buffalo, so I put a Buffalo + Under hedge in a parlay. The over is my official pick though.
NY Giants -3 vs. NY Jets
This is a tough one that I'm considering taking off the card. Everyone seems to be on the Jets here. I liked that the line seemed inflated, until I realized that the Jets aren't really the home team and it's a neutral field. Makes sense now.
The Jets were truly pathetic last week. In my post last week I called Washington a dysfunctional organization. I thought the jets were just being covered harshly as a New York team, but this organization is an absolute mess. Two grievance lawsuits from players they released claiming injuries.
I'm leaning the Giants here, but will likely pull it from the card later on.
Edit: Okay NY Giants are my play. I'm seeing the ML on the Jets paying +140 on basically a pickem game. That's way too much value IMO.
Leans
Pittsburgh +4 vs. LA Rams
The logic here is similar to why I picked Pittsburgh last week. I didn't account for Brissett getting hurt and Hoyer playing most of the game. Nor could I have predicted that the holder would put the ball laces-in on Indy's game winning kick. Nonetheless, I like Pittsburgh again for similar reasons. As Minkah Fitpatrick showed you last week with his 90 yard pick 6, this Pittsburgh team has not given up on the season despite losing Big Ben and traded a high pick for a stud. Pittsburgh is still the better defensive team overall IMO, even with the Rams having Donald and that newly acquired CB.
Though it hasn't worked out as well as I expected, I was expecting the usual loser of the SB hangover with the Rams. 5-3 record is not that great considering how dominant they were last year. It's not quite as much of a must-win for the Steelers this week as they avoided going 3-5 last week. Conner is out again, but Samuels was very involved last week. I think the Steelers stay in the playoff hunt and get above .500 this week, with the schedule not too overbearing in the future. This team will either be in the playoffs or one of the last teams out.
The Rams will be without Brandin Cooks, and lean on Kupp/Woods/Everett vs. a pretty good pass defense. Todd Gurley and his knee have not been the same since late last season. He was a big reason for their success early on.
Edit: I moved this pick from a play to a lean. +4 at home is a lot. It should be closer to 2.5 or less IMO. If Pitt manages to cover, it will be because of the defense. Pittsburgh is the 3rd most expensive defense in daily fantasy this week.
Arizona / Tampa Bay Over 52
Keep riding the over on two of the league's worst defenses.
Green Bay Money Line vs. Carolina
I just think Green Bay wins. Rodgers was very upset after the loss last week.
San Fran Money Line vs. Seattle
I think San Fran wins, but I hate giving points vs. Russell Wilson who I nickname mighty mouse because he's constantly running around and getting away, then making the long pass for a huge gain. I don't see Wilson ever getting blown out because he always keeps them in the game when they're losing.
Tough loss last week with the London game HOU/JAX going wayyyy under and never having a chance. What I failed to realize was that JAX covered the first meeting, and that the line was the same (adjusted for home field advantage). Houston was the play, but I was too into JAX having a good game (coming off 2 nice wins) that I failed to realize that.
Edit: I changed my Pittsburgh pick from a play to a lean. I realize Pittsburgh getting +4 at home is actually pretty high. Pittsburgh shouldn't even by getting 3 IMO.
Cincinnati +10.5 vs. Baltimore
Normally I would not bet on the same outcome as the first game. Cincinnati covered earlier this year with the same line. Considering Baltimore is on the road this time, it means the line is even higher after being adjusted for home field advantage. This is a regular bet the backup QB play. I checked out this guy Finley's preseason stats, and he's actually been pretty good. Baltimore with the big win on Monday vs. the Patriots and go play a division rival that almost always plays them tough.
Miami +10.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
I'm a bit scared of betting this Miami team for a 5th consecutive cover. I knew they'd start a good covering streak, but didn't think it would make it this far. The same logic as last week when I bet Pitt over them. I read Indy tends to play down to their competition, and Miami may be the lowest of the low. Brissett will likely play as the line is not off. Indy is still 0-6 or whatever when T.Y. Hilton doesn't play. I'll ride that one more time, though it will get played out eventually. Hilton is actually suppose to be out about a month, and I do not expect them to lose every game, nor this game really. Indy has Jacksonville and Houston on deck, and I expect them to win at least one, if not both of those.
Edit: Brissett is officially out for this game. I was pretty shocked that the line barely moved when I put the bet in, but I got it in at 10.5 this afternoon. Hoyer can be good at times, but I think he'll struggle tomorrow.
New Orleans / Atlanta Over 51
In recent years, whenever these 2 teams play, the public loves to hammer the over, but they did play to an under in their last meeting, and both teams played unders in their last games. New Orleans defense has been really good this year, which has prevented the line from getting too inflated to the 54-56 range or above where it would usually be. It's been shocking to me what has happened to Atlanta over the past 2 years. That was the real SB hangover. I expect New Orleans to really put the hurt on Atlanta this week. Maybe 44-10 or something with everyone on New Orleans getting involved. If you play daily fantasy, check out Trequan Smith who is making his return this week. If Atlanta manages to show up and keep it close, it should push the number barely over as well.
Cleveland / Buffalo Over 40.5
At first glance, I liked Cleveland with the what the heck line at -3 with flip flopped records. But it seems a little too obvious to me. The Browns still have Mayfield, OBJ, Landry, Chubb, and that always sounds good vs. Buffalo who people won't give respect to, even when they make the playoffs this year. After watching the Buffalo/Washington game last week, I saw Adrian Peterson gash Buffalo's run defense and turn back the hands of time. I love AP and great for him, but he is NOT a good player at this point in his career. Washington was not able to run the ball effectively on most of the teams they played this year, and Buffalo let AP go for 108 yards on 18 carries!
If AP can do that, then Chubb should have a monster game this week. And when he's had big games, the Browns have been able to score lots of points. Another angle I'm seeing is that Mayfield outright said "I need to force feed OBJ." Well he's being covered by one of the best CBs in football this week. If you force feed OBJ, your playmaker will make a few great plays. But you will also likely throw a pick on your own end that way and give Buffalo a short field.
So a big game from Chubb, a few big plays to OBJ, and a couple of picks giving Buffalo a short field. Is that enough to push the game over 40.5? I'm not sure, but I hope so. My only concern is that those force fed picks will be drive killers on Buffalo's end.
I actually hedged this play on a parlay. I still think it goes over, but I'm also starting to like Buffalo, so I put a Buffalo + Under hedge in a parlay. The over is my official pick though.
NY Giants -3 vs. NY Jets
This is a tough one that I'm considering taking off the card. Everyone seems to be on the Jets here. I liked that the line seemed inflated, until I realized that the Jets aren't really the home team and it's a neutral field. Makes sense now.
The Jets were truly pathetic last week. In my post last week I called Washington a dysfunctional organization. I thought the jets were just being covered harshly as a New York team, but this organization is an absolute mess. Two grievance lawsuits from players they released claiming injuries.
I'm leaning the Giants here, but will likely pull it from the card later on.
Edit: Okay NY Giants are my play. I'm seeing the ML on the Jets paying +140 on basically a pickem game. That's way too much value IMO.
Leans
Pittsburgh +4 vs. LA Rams
The logic here is similar to why I picked Pittsburgh last week. I didn't account for Brissett getting hurt and Hoyer playing most of the game. Nor could I have predicted that the holder would put the ball laces-in on Indy's game winning kick. Nonetheless, I like Pittsburgh again for similar reasons. As Minkah Fitpatrick showed you last week with his 90 yard pick 6, this Pittsburgh team has not given up on the season despite losing Big Ben and traded a high pick for a stud. Pittsburgh is still the better defensive team overall IMO, even with the Rams having Donald and that newly acquired CB.
Though it hasn't worked out as well as I expected, I was expecting the usual loser of the SB hangover with the Rams. 5-3 record is not that great considering how dominant they were last year. It's not quite as much of a must-win for the Steelers this week as they avoided going 3-5 last week. Conner is out again, but Samuels was very involved last week. I think the Steelers stay in the playoff hunt and get above .500 this week, with the schedule not too overbearing in the future. This team will either be in the playoffs or one of the last teams out.
The Rams will be without Brandin Cooks, and lean on Kupp/Woods/Everett vs. a pretty good pass defense. Todd Gurley and his knee have not been the same since late last season. He was a big reason for their success early on.
Edit: I moved this pick from a play to a lean. +4 at home is a lot. It should be closer to 2.5 or less IMO. If Pitt manages to cover, it will be because of the defense. Pittsburgh is the 3rd most expensive defense in daily fantasy this week.
Arizona / Tampa Bay Over 52
Keep riding the over on two of the league's worst defenses.
Green Bay Money Line vs. Carolina
I just think Green Bay wins. Rodgers was very upset after the loss last week.
San Fran Money Line vs. Seattle
I think San Fran wins, but I hate giving points vs. Russell Wilson who I nickname mighty mouse because he's constantly running around and getting away, then making the long pass for a huge gain. I don't see Wilson ever getting blown out because he always keeps them in the game when they're losing.
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