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I usually just casually browse, but I put so much time into my picks this week that I'd like to share.
Houston/Jacksonville Over 46.5
The two teams played to a low scoring 13-12 game earlier this season in Minshew's first start. The Jacksonville coach said this week that playing in London is a completely different animal, and Jacksonville has done it many times. Jacksonville has done it 6 times, and the total has hit at least 48 points 5 of those times. I know it's not baseball, but earlier this season I remember seeing the Yankees and Red Sox play in Wembley on a short field for baseball. I think the Yankees scored like 15 runs in the first inning. There's a reason why the total was 43 in week 2, and after a 13-12 game, the total is 47.5 this time. This is Minshew's last audition to prove that he deserves to be the starter going forward with the Coach inferring Foles will take over when he's eligible to return after the bye week. I grappled with taking JAX or the Over in this game, but the total was speaking to me.
Tampa Bay/Seattle Over 52.5
Tampa Bay's run defense is pretty good. The Bucs are #1 in rushing yards allowed per game. That means Wilson won't be able to burn clock running Carson the whole game. But that's okay, because Wilson is more than capable of slinging it. Winston is a capable QB, and with weapons like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, he should be able to air it out and keep it competitive. In competitive games, especially ones where Seattle is down, they can match any team drive for drive. Tampa Bay is a popular sleeper play with the Seahawks having a big game against the 49ers on deck. I think Tampa Bay can scare them and force them to keep scoring to win. If not, Winston should be good for 2-3 TD passes and 2-3 picks. If it gets out of hand, Winston can strike quickly in garbage time.
Oh yeah, and Bruce Arians had success at Seattle when he was with Arizona. 4-1 SU with the score usually being pretty high.
Pittsburgh Pick'em vs. Indianapolis
Indianapolis is a popular pick among some people I follow (and in general apparently), but I have to go with Pittsburgh here. The fact that they traded a high pick for Minkah Fitzpatrick after Big Ben went down shows that they have not given up on this season. They're a 3-4 team, and can't afford to go 3-5 if they want to make a run at the playoffs. Injuries are a factor here as James Conner is doubtful, but Jaylen Samuels has proven to be just as good, if not better than him. I see a big game for Jaylen, something like 130 yards and 2 TDs. Indianapolis is missing T,Y. Hilton, leaving a pretty inexperienced receiving core. Last time they were missing Hilton they lost to the Raiders, who I'm still not convinced are even a decent team yet. Just read that Indy is 0-5 in games that Hilton misses in his career. Brissett has been way better than expected in Luck's absence, but I like Pitt to keep their season alive this week. Only thing that scares me is Indy looked like crap last week against a depleted Broncos team, and may be looking for a bounceback.
And Pittsburgh ranks higher defensively than the Colts in pretty much every category.
Leans Only:
Buffalo -10.5 vs Washington
I normally never pick against a backup QB with vegas usually pricing in low expectations. In this case, I know a little something about this Haskins guy, and that he's pretty horrible. Only played 1 year in college, and it shows. The guy has a big arm but no touch in his passes. Redskins still missing their franchise LT Trent Williams. Their pass catching RB Thompson is out this week. Adrian Peterson can still play, but when he's in there it's a red flag that they're running the ball because he's not a pass catcher and Buffalo will be able to stack the box. Washington is a dysfunctional franchise and it will get ugly in this game. I'm expecting a 24-3 or 31-3 score. There's a reason why the Redskins are only playing him out of necessity because of Keenum being out with a concussion. He's in way over his head, and came into the league cocky with his "they done messed up" comment when he slipped in the draft. Leaked stories that AP told him last week that he needs to study the playbook. The guy is just not ready to be an NFL QB, and this tough Bills defense will feast on him.
Hard to take Buffalo as big favorites with the Josh Allen who is really shakey, and when they were big favorites against Miami they got a big scare until the end. The Redskins defense can be good at times, and can be horrible at other times. This game should be the easiest game on the board on Sunday. Haskins will be lucky if he can put up 10 pts.
NY Jets ML (-170) vs. Miami
When a really awful winless team is pickem or favored vs. another bad team, they usually lose the first 2-3 tries. Miami is a bad team, but Fitzpatrick can keep them competitive because he's smart enough to release quickly with a horrible offensive line, as opposed to Josh Rosen who is a deer in headlights. I expect another close game, but Miami continues their goal to tank on the season. Low scoring game with both teams in the teens likely. Something like 17-16 or 16-14. I take the Jets rather than Miami and the points because I think the safer play is that Miami loses. We've seen earlier this year that the team will play for the win rather than tie the game when they went for 2 in a 17-16 loss to Washington, so points could very well come into play.
LA Chargers +3.5 vs. Green Bay
Just a hunch here. The +3.5 is -120, and I see a 3 point game here. Green Bay wins in 24-21.
Good luck everyone. I really need to cash this week, so I put a ton of research into these picks.
Houston/Jacksonville Over 46.5
The two teams played to a low scoring 13-12 game earlier this season in Minshew's first start. The Jacksonville coach said this week that playing in London is a completely different animal, and Jacksonville has done it many times. Jacksonville has done it 6 times, and the total has hit at least 48 points 5 of those times. I know it's not baseball, but earlier this season I remember seeing the Yankees and Red Sox play in Wembley on a short field for baseball. I think the Yankees scored like 15 runs in the first inning. There's a reason why the total was 43 in week 2, and after a 13-12 game, the total is 47.5 this time. This is Minshew's last audition to prove that he deserves to be the starter going forward with the Coach inferring Foles will take over when he's eligible to return after the bye week. I grappled with taking JAX or the Over in this game, but the total was speaking to me.
Tampa Bay/Seattle Over 52.5
Tampa Bay's run defense is pretty good. The Bucs are #1 in rushing yards allowed per game. That means Wilson won't be able to burn clock running Carson the whole game. But that's okay, because Wilson is more than capable of slinging it. Winston is a capable QB, and with weapons like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, he should be able to air it out and keep it competitive. In competitive games, especially ones where Seattle is down, they can match any team drive for drive. Tampa Bay is a popular sleeper play with the Seahawks having a big game against the 49ers on deck. I think Tampa Bay can scare them and force them to keep scoring to win. If not, Winston should be good for 2-3 TD passes and 2-3 picks. If it gets out of hand, Winston can strike quickly in garbage time.
Oh yeah, and Bruce Arians had success at Seattle when he was with Arizona. 4-1 SU with the score usually being pretty high.
Pittsburgh Pick'em vs. Indianapolis
Indianapolis is a popular pick among some people I follow (and in general apparently), but I have to go with Pittsburgh here. The fact that they traded a high pick for Minkah Fitzpatrick after Big Ben went down shows that they have not given up on this season. They're a 3-4 team, and can't afford to go 3-5 if they want to make a run at the playoffs. Injuries are a factor here as James Conner is doubtful, but Jaylen Samuels has proven to be just as good, if not better than him. I see a big game for Jaylen, something like 130 yards and 2 TDs. Indianapolis is missing T,Y. Hilton, leaving a pretty inexperienced receiving core. Last time they were missing Hilton they lost to the Raiders, who I'm still not convinced are even a decent team yet. Just read that Indy is 0-5 in games that Hilton misses in his career. Brissett has been way better than expected in Luck's absence, but I like Pitt to keep their season alive this week. Only thing that scares me is Indy looked like crap last week against a depleted Broncos team, and may be looking for a bounceback.
And Pittsburgh ranks higher defensively than the Colts in pretty much every category.
Leans Only:
Buffalo -10.5 vs Washington
I normally never pick against a backup QB with vegas usually pricing in low expectations. In this case, I know a little something about this Haskins guy, and that he's pretty horrible. Only played 1 year in college, and it shows. The guy has a big arm but no touch in his passes. Redskins still missing their franchise LT Trent Williams. Their pass catching RB Thompson is out this week. Adrian Peterson can still play, but when he's in there it's a red flag that they're running the ball because he's not a pass catcher and Buffalo will be able to stack the box. Washington is a dysfunctional franchise and it will get ugly in this game. I'm expecting a 24-3 or 31-3 score. There's a reason why the Redskins are only playing him out of necessity because of Keenum being out with a concussion. He's in way over his head, and came into the league cocky with his "they done messed up" comment when he slipped in the draft. Leaked stories that AP told him last week that he needs to study the playbook. The guy is just not ready to be an NFL QB, and this tough Bills defense will feast on him.
Hard to take Buffalo as big favorites with the Josh Allen who is really shakey, and when they were big favorites against Miami they got a big scare until the end. The Redskins defense can be good at times, and can be horrible at other times. This game should be the easiest game on the board on Sunday. Haskins will be lucky if he can put up 10 pts.
NY Jets ML (-170) vs. Miami
When a really awful winless team is pickem or favored vs. another bad team, they usually lose the first 2-3 tries. Miami is a bad team, but Fitzpatrick can keep them competitive because he's smart enough to release quickly with a horrible offensive line, as opposed to Josh Rosen who is a deer in headlights. I expect another close game, but Miami continues their goal to tank on the season. Low scoring game with both teams in the teens likely. Something like 17-16 or 16-14. I take the Jets rather than Miami and the points because I think the safer play is that Miami loses. We've seen earlier this year that the team will play for the win rather than tie the game when they went for 2 in a 17-16 loss to Washington, so points could very well come into play.
LA Chargers +3.5 vs. Green Bay
Just a hunch here. The +3.5 is -120, and I see a 3 point game here. Green Bay wins in 24-21.
Good luck everyone. I really need to cash this week, so I put a ton of research into these picks.
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