The Limper NFL – 2018 – Week 1

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

Final roster cuts done!

First week projections are based, pretty much totally, on 2017 team and player performance – so have grains of salt handy. Remember that the focus of The Limper is to project a margin of victory, and NOT a score total, so don’t look here for an over/under prediction (Sometimes its close, but most of the time – it’s not.) Check back for injury-based corrections prior to the games. I’ll post initial projections on Tuesdays, then FINAL projections on Wednesdays for Thursday’s game, Saturdays for Sunday’s lineup, and Sunday night for MNF.

The new look projection frame is a work in progress. It includes a column that will show how the model performs – game by game, and remember the ATS win/loss record is based on closing lines (Vegas Insider’s consensus closing lines), so some picks may flip depending where the line ends up. The FINAL projections, however, will obviously stand as posted.

My staff has worked their fingers down to the nubs getting this ready, but they’re not perfect, so, if you see a screw up, or think a projection is way off, let me know.

GLTA

[WillyBoy]

Final Projections for MNF


The Limper - NFL 2018 - Week 1.png

[Max NU]

Google is your friend...I see you posting the same "Stuff" over at covers & sbr & rxrforum and dig a bit finding things going back like 4 years...never seeing a complete season/year on anything...then am stopped dead in my tracks when I read you recently posted something to the effect of >even after 10 years still have bugs< whoa horsey whoa, Vegas is prepared to send you a limousine
a.s.a.p.!
personally hope you do have the next greatest thing because i sure could use a rest from 'capping day & night
watching replay after replay looking through my laser scoped sights like a hunter for the next method to turn profits until that happens I'll make my own power ratings and my own lines then compare them to what the sportsbooks lines are looking for windows of opportunity then pounce like a predator. btw vegas does same thing (ie. power ratings & lines etc. etc.)
not to be harsh but you also mention "my staff working fingers to the nubs"...after 10 years & still bugs i'd get a new staff...just sayin'...so where shall limo get you at?

i'll check back after 4 weeks to see how your doing
...Good Luck!

[WillyBoy]

Google is your friend...I see you posting the same "Stuff" over at covers & sbr & rxrforum and dig a bit finding things going back like 4 years...never seeing a complete season/year on anything...then am stopped dead in my tracks when I read you recently posted something to the effect of >even after 10 years still have bugs< whoa horsey whoa, Vegas is prepared to send you a limousine
a.s.a.p.!
personally hope you do have the next greatest thing because i sure could use a rest from 'capping day & night
watching replay after replay looking through my laser scoped sights like a hunter for the next method to turn profits until that happens I'll make my own power ratings and my own lines then compare them to what the sportsbooks lines are looking for windows of opportunity then pounce like a predator. btw vegas does same thing (ie. power ratings & lines etc. etc.)
not to be harsh but you also mention "my staff working fingers to the nubs"...after 10 years & still bugs i'd get a new staff...just sayin'...so where shall limo get you at?

i'll check back after 4 weeks to see how your doing
...Good Luck!

You make it sound like I’m doing something tricky, and maybe I need a lawyer.

Yes – you got me! I’m posting my “stuff” on several sports betting sites. I’ve been searching for a new home, but only where interest in statistical projections – as a guide to betting – gathers sufficient interest, so I’m kind of testing the waters. Some sites don’t work – like Covers – because I can’t post the image my model is programmed to deliver, and some – like PSD (and maybe like this one) – make it sound like I’m doing something underhanded, and who needs that?

And - yes! Bugs happen. My comment about a “staff” is kind of an inside joke. It’s only me at the keyboard, and in the off-season I’m always rewriting the code, trying to improve the model’s results. So – bugs happen!!! You ever write – and rewrite - computer code?! Sheesh!

Originally, I only did NBA projections, for which it’s a lot easier to get reliable results – basically because there are far fewer players than the NFL, but a great deal more data available given the number of games. Offhand, I can’t tell you how long I’ve been modeling the NBA – but it’s much longer than 10 years, and I haven’t always posted results, for a lot of reasons, but mainly because it’s a lot work. About 10 years ago I managed to rewrite the sorting algorithm to give me NFL projections, and I’ve posted these results here and there, but only regularly on a pay site the last few years.

The first years got poor to mixed results, but each year since, for weeks 5 thru 15, it has steadily improved. No, it’s not the “next greatest thing”, and it doesn’t take the place of the hard work needed to win. (Your regimen of “capping day & night watching replay after replay”, sounds like how I spend every NFL season). NFL spreads are a bugger to beat; nevertheless, my numbers are reliable and are a place to start.

Anyway, the model needs 4 weeks of data to run, so it’s not until Week 5 that projections are completely based on 2018 numbers, making projections for Weeks 1-4, only as reliable as 2017 data can be. So – it’s good you won’t be back until then.

[Max NU]

I was in the wrong and extend my hand with an Apology to you SirI I'm not normally an ahole.
Wishing you good fortune in your endeavor! Oh and Welcome home!?

[WillyBoy]

Well – thank you for the apology, and the welcome – and glad to hear you’re “not normally an ahole”. I’m not normally such a grouchy old fart, myself (though the grandkids might disagree).

Good luck this season!

[Daws1089]

Good luck this season. Welcome to predictem.

[joepa66]

Welcome and GL WB!

[WillyBoy]

The real tragedy of the Falcons is that Steve Sarkisian is absolutely killing the best years of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. While the Eagle defense is as solid as it looked, player for player, position for position, Atlanta matches up as the better offense vs Philly’s defense. I don’t know why Sarkisian wasn’t fired last year, but his play design is the drag on this team’s fortunes.

[WillyBoy]

When you’re mostly relying on year old numbers, expectations have to be low and in that sense (unfortunately) the Limper met expectations today. Hopefully, the model will, at least, end the week on the plus side of the straight-up line.

[WillyBoy]

Post in error.

[Kevin]

At this point, watching Sarkisian's poor playcalling, I have to wonder if this guy is betting against the team. Not likely, but how else do you explain the asinine calls. If us couch potato-weeken warriors know what the right call is, how does this guy not figure it out? I expect he'll be the first one fired this season.