***Playoff Discussion***

[NittanyLions94]

They went 5-1 in the division and only had 5 losses while struggling with injuries all season. I wouldn't go so far as to say they haven't beaten anyone, Ravens 2x, Falcons and convincing wins vs teams that were coming in hot (Oakland). I do think that they can be exploited in the passing game, but am unsure of Sanchez ability to capitalize. I think once again this game will come down to turnovers/special teams. I lean Pitt to win

4 losses. @NO, BAL(sans Ben), NYJ(sans Troy, Miller), and NE.

[Underdog88]

yeah

[Stifler's Mom]

Also, pitt outgained NYJ in the 1st matchup by like 100 yds and they still lost. NYJ defense is on a different level it seems with holding Peyton and Brady to minimal production, both qbs being better than Big Benny. I'll def be taking the points and hoping that the refs don't have too much to say for Pitt in this one :thumbs:

I would have to say outgaining them but losing is actually a positive sign for PIT here, as it shows they gave the first game away....and if I remember correctly, didn't someone drop an easy td pass that would have still either tied that game late, or put PIT ahead?

Also, Ben has 2 things Brady and Manning didn't. A competent running game that doesn't need to be set up first by the pass, and the ability to scramble, extend plays, and make something happen outside the pocket, so it's a whole different ballgame this week for Rexy's boys.

And not to forget the difference in styles and quality of defenses the jets offense will be facing here too.

I too believe the Steelers were a bit overrated this year, but as long as PIT either doesn't make many big mistakes, or isn't content to just play run run run punt all night and keep the jets in the game, I don't know that this jets team is the one to upset them on their home field in the conference championship game.

I mean if PIT jumps ahead, do you want Sanchez trying to throw on the PIT defense when they know it's coming?

IMO for the jets to win, they will either need to jump ahead early, or the steelers will have to play a boring make no mistakes style to keep it a close game

Now watch the steelers jump out big early and the jets make a huge 2nd half comeback :laughing:

[Underdog88]

Also, Ben has 2 things Brady and Manning didn't. A competent running game that doesn't need to be set up first by the pass, and the ability to scramble, extend plays, and make something happen outside the pocket, so it's a whole different ballgame this week for Rexy's boys.

I too believe the Steelers were a bit overrated this year, but as long as PIT either doesn't make many big mistakes, or isn't content to just play run run run punt all night and keep the jets in the game, I don't know that this jets team is the one to upset them on their home field in the conference championship game.

I mean if PIT jumps ahead, do you want Sanchez trying to throw on the PIT defense when they know it's coming?

I keep coming back to Big Ben's ability to extend plays. That combined with the deep threat in Wallace, and I think the Jets can be thrown on. Let's not forget Pitt just put up 341 on the Ravens defense, Big Ben played a great game 2 tds no picks. Pitt D played Ravens offense well too, 17 pts allowed is pretty solid IMO for a playoff game. I think both offenses are more than capable of getting over their team totals. Steelers 21/ Jets 17.

Steelers to score 21 pts at home in a playoff game? They have gone over that every playoff game they have played since 05. How do I not play that? Big Ben get them over that number.

The Jets to score 17 pts? The only road game they didn't get over 17 this season was the blowout loss @NE. Unless you think that is the case again today I don't see how you could rationalize playing the under. I hate on Sanchez from time to time, and the only player I like on the Jets is LT. However, I think the Jets offense is more than capable of putting up 17 pts. They have a deep threat as well. They played keep away from Indy, but I don't think that is the same gameplan they employ vs Pitt. Rex has kept things under wraps this week, but I think they come out trying to take a couple shots. Biggest concern for me laying the chalk is the Jets getting shots downfield in the Steelers secondary. If Shonn gets consistent positive yardage to start the Jets could hurt Pitt with play action. If not, it could get rough for Sanchez.

[Underdog88]

I've been dodging losing ats plays this postseason by hitting team totals. Won Saints tt over and SeaHawks tt last week, though both lost vs the line. I think I will employ the same strategy for Pitt game. I don't like laying the 4 here, I much rather like them to get over 21.

[Underdog88]

Plus you have the huge effect of home field. That place will be crazy with drunk Bears fans trying to withstand the cold weather. If they can score first, especially off a big play by any of the three areas the place will be nuts all game.

I went back and read your initial thoughts on this matchup, and you bring up some very valid points. Actually it is your post giving me the biggest second thoughts about a GB ats wager. That being said, I don't see how you can say there will be a huge effect of homefield after the last two games GB has played.

[Underdog88]

So far my card is shaping up like

Bears tt o20

Packers ML

Steelers tt o21

Jets tt o17



I may even play a teaser with Bears & Jets to get them +10. I just don't see a blowout this week

[NittanyLions94]

Cold as can be in Pittsburgh today. Supposed to be 6 degrees at kickoff and can't be much warmer than that right now.

[Reggie Hamlin]

I think the Jets will follow an offensive game plan similiar to week 10 Patriots Steelers
the patriots used a spread offense with short passes to the tight end and slot receivers
The Jets have the personel to get this acomplished IMO. Quick short passes will hopefully nullify the Steeler blitz put them on their heels and open it up for
Shonngreen now I know thats asking alot against this Pitt Dfense but hey I think we have seen this Jet team rise to the occasion more than once and stranger Sh** has happend hey we may even see the Chicago Cubs win the world series .


I like the Jets with the points today

[Daws1089]

steelers dogged in a superbowl? i think we know what to do here :thumbs:

[NittanyLions94]

steelers dogged in a superbowl? i think we know what to do here :thumbs:

Keep betting against them like most have? :laughing:

[Daws1089]

whats your explanation for them being an underdog? free money?

[Polar Ice]

whats your explanation for them being an underdog? free money?

Just to throw in my two cents, if the public considered it free money a majority of the bets wouldn't be coming in on GB (at least as shown on covers). IMO, GB is favored because both D's are stout yet GB has the sexier offense.

I was going to be on Pitt before the spread came out, but the fact that the line opened at +2.5 makes me feel even better about it. I think the spread is asking for GB money because a lot of people are going to say "surely GB can at least win by a FG," as shown by the early betting trends.

I also like the fact that the Steelers have recent SB experience.

[V3r1f13d]

I like the over.

Probably going to stay away from sides.
I've bet against GB twice in a row. Not going for a third.

[Q-Unit]

IMO (which is wrong lol), I think GB (mostly their O) is perceived as a "dome" offense that happens to play outdoors at home, so playing in Arlington should be their "advantage", hence they are the faves?

:thumbs::puke: