***Playoff Discussion***

[NittanyLions94]

Great post Nitts!

Thanks man, have done pretty well betting Steeler games this year. Easier to know what to expect from a team you see each game twice and follow the day to day happenings. Hope you have a good Divisional weekend, and I've been visiting you guys even if I haven't been posting. Gotta see who you, Daws, BB, Horfin, etc. are on before I call the man on Sundays :thumbs:

Side note, the only other game I really like(which doesn't mean I'm laying off the others :beer2: ) is the Bears. That thing is a mismatch from jump street. NO was banged up bigtime last week and couldn't stop anyone down the stretch. No run game makes it tough to win on the road in January.

[Underdog88]

Regarding the Ravens/Steelers game, I think Balty's defense played well last week, forcing the Chiefs to become one-dimensional. However, they aren't facing Cassell this time around. They aren't going to dominate TOP vs Pitt, who should be able to mix the playbook up enough to make plays downfield. I will be looking into playing a Mike Wallace prop.


The more I look the more I think the Bears line is inflated. Yet the Saints defense played horribly, but I just don't see the Bears as a team that will blow the Seahawks out of the water. Matt has been there before, and Cutler runs the risk of being bad Cutler. That being said, the Hawks defense could regress. Bears have played every playoff team they faced this season closely with the exception of the Patriots at home. They allowed pts at home...26 to Philly, 36 to the Pats, 34 to the Jets. I think this game goes over

[Underdog88]

one more thing.... the Bears only beat the Panthers Vikings and Dolphins by DD this season.

[Franchise]

Just some thoughts

I like the Bears. The seahawks are kind of becoming a media darling and while people like to point out Jay Cutler's failings he hasn't turned it over nearly as much and their offense has been more conservative in the last 6 or 7 weeks as they ran the ball much more. I like the balanced offense to move the ball and I think the Seahawks will really struggle against a Bears defense that no one seems to notice how good they are. They create big plays with their sacks and turnovers and are allowing 90 yards a game on the ground. I like the Bears in a 24-27 Seattle 3-10 type of game. And I heard Carroll say on the radio that you can't not kick it to Hester. If you do it gives up too much field position so I think we'll see another Hester house call.

I also like the Steelers. Everyone is remembering last week for Baltimore as opposed to the game against a full strength Pitt defense. In that game the Ravens had 2 60 yard plays and without them had 160 total yards. They really struggled to move the ball and I expect more of the same again today. Ben will make some plays and Baltimore doesn't have the players to keep Mike Wallace from getting over the top. Baltimore won't be able to run so Flacco will need to throw for 250+ and I don't see that against a healthy Pitt D. I like Pittsburgh 20-24 Baltimore 7-13.

I lean to Atlanta tonight but I think this game will come down to which team breaks from their philosphy first. GB like to run a nickel with Woodson roaming and causing havoc and Atlanta likes to use the power run game. If they go heavy with 6 lineman it will force one of the DB's off the field or get carved up on the ground. If Atlanta is able to pound it all game and stay ahead of the chains I think they chew clock and score points like their strategy against the Saints. In that case they wouldn't need to make as many plays against Rodgers. It isn't a game I'm going to force a play on but I think it will be a great game, very close and likely to come down to one tipped ball or missed tackle and that isn't something that I want to back.

I think Belichick loads the box and forces Sanchez to beat them. With no Damien Woody the Jets are a little thinner on an OL that hasn't been as good as last year with Faneca and I think that will be the key. I think the Jets only chance is to run all game and keep it close and hope Sanchez makes a play but with a depleted line and a loaded box I like NE to be able to stop the run and force Sanchez to make plays which I don't see him doing. I don't see the consistency or mental strength to win the game for Sanchez if it's on his shoulders. And even if he does make throws will Braylon Edwards actually catch a big pass?? On the other side I expect the Pats to move the ball and score with consistency. The jets D is overrated and the pats do a great job of exploiting weaknesses, Hello Jets Safeties!! The 12 personnel will be in full force with Brady having a field day with the backers and safeties as they try to matchup with the different formations as well as the running game. The Jets can't get pressure without blitzing since they have no pass rushers that are capable of consistently making plays against a very good OL. So no blitz, Brady sips on latte's and picks apart coverage and then points at the bench. With blitz, Brady throws quick, player catches and breaks long TD and Brady points at bench. As a Bills fan I hate the Patriots but I have to admire what they have built.

[Franchise]

The more I look the more I think the Bears line is inflated. Yet the Saints defense played horribly, but I just don't see the Bears as a team that will blow the Seahawks out of the water. Matt has been there before, and Cutler runs the risk of being bad Cutler. That being said, the Hawks defense could regress. Bears have played every playoff team they faced this season closely with the exception of the Patriots at home. They allowed pts at home...26 to Philly, 36 to the Pats, 34 to the Jets. I think this game goes over

UD - The seahawks have lost 6 of their last 10 by DD with their wins coming against...wait for it home against NO, home against Stl, home against carolina and at Arizona. The Bears dominated the Eagles until Vick threw a dart into triple coverage on 4th and 12 with under two minutes to play to cut the lead to 5. That isn't a throw that Hasselbeck can make.

And I think the Cutler blowup effect was much more of an issue last year. He had 8 of his turnovers in the Washington and Ne games. The Washington game was terrible and they got their ass kicked by NE. But other than that he didn't turn the ball over more than twice the rest of the season. And more than half the time he had 0 or 1 turnovers. Seattle needs more than 2 turnovers to keep this close imo.

[ATS_BDG]

Easy money?

The line for the Packers game has moved. It is down to 1.5. I assume that Packers are getting lots of play. Vegas has us right where they want us. Talk about Joe Public and you talk about the Green Bay Packers in this game against the dirty birds. Everyone is really jumping on the Packers bandwagon. So go ahead....bet the Packers on the ML. It will win..Packers got it made on the road. Easy win man against the inferior Falcons. Matt Ryan=no good. Michael Turner=no good R. White=no good. I mean look at the line movement....Falcons giving not even 2 points. Wow better bet Packers man. Forget about it.

[Underdog88]

Going into the half and A-Rodge is playing like a man possessed... obviously the game plan is different form last week, GB sees an advantage in the passing game and are exploiting it. At the same I don't expect the Falcons offense to roll over. I'm leaning towards an over play 2ndh and wouldn't touch anything under related

[Underdog88]

I think it's obvious who has the better qb and defense...

[NittanyLions94]

I think it's obvious who has the better qb and defense...

Just no idea how you bet Baltimore there. Haven't beaten Ben since Cowher mailed it in. Defense that is the best since the 60's. It's fine to lay off, but no reason to bet against it.

[Stifler's Mom]

one more thing.... the Bears only beat the Panthers Vikings and Dolphins by DD this season.

How is Seattle any better than any of those teams? Even Carolina. Maybe barely. Seattle got steamrolled by lesser competition in far less tough circumstances plenty already this year. I'm not buying that all of a sudden because the Saints walked into a hornets nest, played like ****, and still almost won, that Seattle is all of a sudden Arizona of a few years ago. That Bears front 4 is gonna suffocate Hasslepuke today, imo, while in reality the Seattle D has little to offer to turn Cutler into a bumbling turnover machine. 10 pts really isn't a huge margin of victory. I'd rather not bet on Seattle to "keep it close" like it seems plenty are doing in this game. If they get behind early, do they really have what it takes to get back into the game, or once they fall behind, is it going to be like a snowball rolling downhill??

[Stifler's Mom]

The more i thought about the game, something keeps telling me the Jets take it down to the wire today. Rarely does a repeat of such an ugly blowout repeat itself in divisional play, especially when you're talking 2 good teams. They did find a way to put the brakes on Manning last week too.

Unfortunately it's the only side this week where I just don't see an obvious advantage for the team I want to play, so I'm still hesitant.

Anyone have a good argument for or against the jets?

[Daws1089]

One thing that ne has not done well is they had bad t.o.p. Jets work that run game and play keep away like last week. I love the 9 pts too

[DukiesBaby]

Anyone have a good argument for or against the jets?

Recent Trends to Consider:
Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in New England.
Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Jets are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings.
Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC East.

[Underdog88]

I think Belichick loads the box and forces Sanchez to beat them. With no Damien Woody the Jets are a little thinner on an OL that hasn't been as good as last year with Faneca and I think that will be the key. I think the Jets only chance is to run all game and keep it close and hope Sanchez makes a play but with a depleted line and a loaded box I like NE to be able to stop the run and force Sanchez to make plays which I don't see him doing. I don't see the consistency or mental strength to win the game for Sanchez if it's on his shoulders. And even if he does make throws will Braylon Edwards actually catch a big pass?? On the other side I expect the Pats to move the ball and score with consistency. The jets D is overrated and the pats do a great job of exploiting weaknesses, Hello Jets Safeties!! The 12 personnel will be in full force with Brady having a field day with the backers and safeties as they try to matchup with the different formations as well as the running game. The Jets can't get pressure without blitzing since they have no pass rushers that are capable of consistently making plays against a very good OL. So no blitz, Brady sips on latte's and picks apart coverage and then points at the bench. With blitz, Brady throws quick, player catches and breaks long TD and Brady points at bench. As a Bills fan I hate the Patriots but I have to admire what they have built.

I have the same sentiments about this game. I've watched nearly every Patriots game this season and though they have a young defense, they also have a well coached d. I think they will come up with ways to pressure Sanchez and force him into some ill advised throws. Woody out is big, and if the Pats get up quickly, NY will have a tough time sticking to the run game. I think the Jets still get around 150+ on the ground, but they did last time and still got pounded. I also can't see Brad Smith being as much of a factor with his injury.


For the Patriots offensively Gronkowski & Hernandez are both solid te and give the Patriots the added dimension in the passing game. Woodhead killed them last game for over 100 in the passing game, and is the perfect answer to Jets pressure. I may once again play a Woodhead total yards prop, as it was 59.5 last time and he crushed it. Nice motivational angle for him as well. I think Cromartie is going to get abused. He's a playmaker when he gets picks and in return game, but I don't think he's even a good cover guy.

By and large the biggest thing that will keep me from playing the Jets is turnovers. The Patriots just don't turn the ball over, just 5 ints and 5 fumbles all season! They are a +28, a full +10 ahead of any other team. To me that is just astounding, and I can't bet on a team knowing that in all likelihood I don't have a chance at winning the turnover battle.

[Underdog88]

As of right now I only have the Pats-2 in a teaser , and likely won't play them ats because laying that high chalk does make me nervous. When it comes down to it I may grab pts with Jets (especially if I can get +10) as a middle opportunity should the teaser still be alive....