***Playoff Discussion***

[Underdog88]

I can't help but feel like a sucker for loving the Colts so much this week, but I can't get the Jets/Bears game out of my head. Everyone is all over Peyton saying he's had a down year, throws too many picks etc. However, are you guys aware that Manning threw for 33 tds this season, tied for second most in his career. As for INTs, he has thrown one more than he did last season, so I think it is a little overblown because of a couple games. Because of the injuries and the way the Colts win games, they are NOT the team you want to lay heavy chalk with.... that being said I don't see how you would want to bet against them to basically just get the job done at home. Manning 91 qb rating Sanchez 75. Colts held down the run very well since Brackett returned holding Jones-Drew and the Raiders rushing attack down (both better on the ground than NYJ), not to mention completely shutting CJ down last week. Do you want to be holding a Jets ticket should they go down by a couple scores and are forced to throw the ball?

[Stifler's Mom]

If defense is a winner in the playoffs, then GB as a dog is a no brainer as far as I'm concerned. There is no spin anyone could put on the performances of the GB and Philly defenses this year to say Philly has the better defense, or IMHO even close to as good as GB's. Win or lose, it's the easiest game of the weekend to handicap, IMO.

I feel like both the Raisins and Chefs are over achievers this year, but agree with most of what you said u-dog. Only something like Lang huge on KC could get me on Balt because it's difficult to see them all of a sudden thrashing someone on the road when it really hasn't been their calling card all season, and their D is imho massively overrated. I mean people still talk about these guys like it's 2000!! Wake up!! They are a middle of the road defense that without 1 guy (Ngata) would probably be putrid. Also too much being said about Balt beating NE last year. Who gives a rip? That NE team had gaping holes everywhere and Balt exploited them. I don't see how that pertains to this year. From what I've seen, Balt is the "squarest" play of the week, for what that's worth, as kc backers seem very few and far between. Slight ats edge to the chefs, imo, but probably not a ton of value to be had there.

[Stifler's Mom]

Oh, and what have the jets done lately (or this year for that matter) that's gonna make me back them to win against Manning and an Indy D that's coming together quite nicely the last few weeks? Beat the Bills with Brian Brohm at qb in week 17?

Unlike last season when they actually performed, the jets d is more bark than bite this year. Sexy Rexy and those jets players can talk all the **** they want, but thinking they're gonna stop Peyton for a whole game, or down the stretch if it's close, is reaching IMHO, especially considering they couldn't even do so when they were actually "good".

[Billy The Kid]

Packers @ Eagles - IMO the Packers are the scariest team in the NFC right now. They can compete with anyone on both sides of the ball. The Mike Vick story has been great but I definitly think he has over achieved this season throwing the football. I def. expect this to be a close game throughout but when push comes to shove, I'll take Aaron Rodgers in the 4th quarter over Mike Vick any day, as well as the Pack. Defense. Not to mention Andy Reid is well over due for some serious play call/clock decision screw up. Line also sitting at Phi -2.5 throughout the week after opening at -4 at some books doesn't make me feel to confident playing the eagles.

Jets @ Colts - Agree with Udog on the Colts thoughts. Lots of negative talk going around about Peyton Manning but he is still going to finish 3rd most likely in the MVP voting. Brady/Vick getting all the press but Peyton has continued to carry the load week in and week out. Yea the interceptions are up, but that is expected when he loses arguably his favorite target in Dallas Clark, then Austin Collie and Joseph Addai who is great catching passes out of the back field. Colts also played the majority of the season without any running game and have only recently got things going on the ground with a healthier D. Brown and Addai. The result?? A 4-0 record with Peyton throwing 9 TDs to 2 ints. (both comming in the oak. game)...Line sitting at Indy -2.5 here makes me think books are looking for Indy money so I'm not sure about a play but am leaning Indy.

Ravens @ Chiefs - Really like the Chiefs to win at home this weekend and I am surprised there hasn't been to much love for them discussed as the home dog witch usually draws lots of interest from manny cappers here. I know the Chiefs had a cake walk schedule but I just love their running game comming into the post season. This team reminds me of the Jets last season. The seem to play everyone tough and hang around then do the little things to win the game. Just have a gut feeling about KC this week as the upset of the weekend. Also think Jamaal Charles becomes a house hold name as well, as there always seems to be that one player each post season that just takes over (Sidney Rice last year, Larry Fitz year before)

Saints @ Seahawks - Lots of good talk going on about this game and I still can't choose a side. My head tells me that laying double digits in the post season just isn't somthing I want to do but the numbers definite justify it. Really don't see how the Seahawks keep up with the Saints offensivly if Brees is on, but those are usually the games that end up covering with something crazy happening or a back door TD. Hawks struggle running the ball but are going to do it effectively if they have any chance winning the game. No way can they compete in a shootout. So I guess the question is, do I have that much faith in Seattles ability to find their running game? not sure I do.

[Badger]

Also think Jamaal Charles becomes a house hold name as well, as there always seems to be that one player each post season that just takes over (Sidney Rice last year, Larry Fitz year before)

God I hope you're right Billy. I have him in my playoff fantasy league and would love to see this come to light. :beerbang:

[bajadave]

Teaser

I think a 6 point tease would help out the dog here. I believe the Saints -4 is a live bet and a Jet +8.5 just might be enough. I like the hook on this one.

[Underdog88]

I think a 6 point tease would help out the dogs here. I believe the Saints -4 is a live bet and a Jet +8.5 just might be enough. I like the hook on this one.

my teaser is actually a 6 pt pleaser

Saints-16.5
Chiefs-2.5
Packers-3

+1400
:beer2:

[wsox08]

I love Seattle +10.5 and will consider the ML. This line is ridiculous. People who don't even really follow football are even getting overly concerned about this 7-9 team making the playoffs. Everyone is making the almighty prediction that the saints will destroy the seachickens. I don't see that happening at all. Definitely a close game with seattle having a chance to win. Here's why, Saints are a dome team, going on the road to play in crap weather outdoors in what can be a very loud stadium, and will be on saturday because of the playoff atmosphere and momentum Seattle has going into this coming off the elimination game. Saints have no real run game to speak of, and drew brees has now thrown an INT in 12 straight games. The saints defense has the propensity to give up a bunch of points on the road too. Some might say well, seattle can't run the ball either or they have a **** offense or the home field doesn't matter, but the seahawks aren't the ones laying 10.5 or i can actually get +11 on the road!! A homedog of this size in the playoffs is unheard of. I'm going large.

nice call! I hope you stuck with it and took them big on the spread and on the ML

[Daws1089]

[Underdog88]

I think the Colts were outcoached in that game. Horrible play call IMO when it was 14-10 on a 3rd and 6 running the ball then settling for the fg. Absolutely terrible calling a timeout with like 26 seconds left and giving the Jets some time to think things over.

[Underdog88]

Don't want to sound bitter about the Colts (though I am). Hats off to the Jets for a great gameplan and winning despite dirty Sanchez. Line opened at 9/9.5 and I'm seeing it down to 8.5 right now. Should be an interesting game.



Ravens ml skyrocketed. How is a -3 spread -175 on the ML? May have to play the Chiefs ML+160 on principle alone. Nobody giving them a shot yet most sharp books won't move off the 3.

[Daws1089]

i completely agree underdog. Jets came with a great gameplan and kept the ball away from manning all night. Their run game was scary.

[Daws1089]

exactly udog, with all of the action on Balt, why isn't this line already at 3.5??

[blitzkrieg555]

do the packers have a quality win all year?

can u give me a reason why the seahawks deserve any credit? why they shouldnt be 17 point favorites, i mean u like them at +10.5, what do u see that makes this 7-9 team with the 27th ranked pass defense and the 21st ranked run defense vs the 3rd ranked pass offense in the NFL? (which is now healthy again)

Yeah the Packers have some good wins. Least points allowed to boot.

Seahawks, well you saw the game.right?

[bigbag12]

Good call on the ML!