***Playoff Discussion***

[Underdog88]

Stif what are your thoughts on Balty/KC????

[FearTheRaven]

For KC to have a chance they need to run to the outside with Charles and McCluster. Ngata will eat up anything up the middle.

Not sure what to think of Cassel. He's a real wildcard.

Hali from the Chiefs has had an awesome year and the Ravens aren't great at protecting the QB at all. Their young secondary is impressive.

Just not sure how KC will put up enough points to win this one, Baltimore's offense has been anemic lately but they have played one of the tougher schedules in the league.

Ravens offense is very disappointing this year. Should be putting up a lot more points than they do.

Play-calling has been piss-poor this year. When they are playing from behind is when the offense is the best. Particularly when Flacco is in the shotgun.

The Ravens will play a close game, just like they have all season. They seem to play to the level of their competition way too often.

21-20 or 21-17 somewhere in that range.

[blitzkrieg555]

I think the Seahawks at +10.5 is a good bet. They've got nothing to lose.

Once again I really like Green Bay. They've played well the last half of the seaon minus that snafu at Detroit. They also nearly took out New England with their backup QB. Green Bays defense has been solid. Six sacks last weekend. Defense won the Bears game. So I trust Dom Capers to come up with a scheme to contain Vick. Also if Starks is in the lineup that should hopefully bring some vigor to their running game.

[msl1014]

I actually am leaning towards Sea +10.5 now. With Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas both on the IR, NO will be a one-dimensional offense. Although Seattle stinks, they usually have a pretty good home field advantage. A road team in the playoffs with a one-dimensional offense should not be laying double digits.

Their double digit wins this season:
Week 6 @TB, 31-6
Week 8 vs PIT, 20-10
Week 9 @ CAR, 34-3
Week 11 vs SEA, 34-19
Week 14 vs STL, 31-13

They beat the Seahawks by 15 in the Superdome Week 11, and I think the change of setting combined with the fact that its their second meeting will make it difficult for New Orleans to blow them out.

My leans today:
Philly -2.5
Sea +10.5
Jets/Indy o44.5

[Daws1089]

60% of the pub on a double digit road fav with no running game, negative turnover margin and a suspect defense on the road and you are still not warming up to seattle at all? Seattle should have every chance to stay in this one all game long. it's easy to go ahead and say i can''t see anything but a saints win here, but I am taking a shot with the seachicks. I've made my stance. I doubt there will be a compelling argument to sway me from making this a 5 unit play, but I do want to hear more from the saint backers. Maybe you can talk me off the moneyline :sm:

[DukiesBaby]

I love Seattle +10.5 and will consider the ML. This line is ridiculous. People who don't even really follow football are even getting overly concerned about this 7-9 team making the playoffs. Everyone is making the almighty prediction that the saints will destroy the seachickens. I don't see that happening at all. Definitely a close game with seattle having a chance to win. Here's why, Saints are a dome team, going on the road to play in crap weather outdoors in what can be a very loud stadium, and will be on saturday because of the playoff atmosphere and momentum Seattle has going into this coming off the elimination game. Saints have no real run game to speak of, and drew brees has now thrown an INT in 12 straight games. The saints defense has the propensity to give up a bunch of points on the road too. Some might say well, seattle can't run the ball either or they have a **** offense or the home field doesn't matter, but the seahawks aren't the ones laying 10.5 or i can actually get +11 on the road!! A homedog of this size in the playoffs is unheard of. I'm going large.

you spying on my facebook page? :hide:

this what i wrote before the rams/seaguls game

"Looking at this game who do u really want to win? st louis defense gives drew brees a tougher match up, because seattle pass def is down right awful, but st louis plays in a dome. I think even with a terrible pass def, seahawks loud stadium and outdoor pacific northwest weather is better suited to stop the saints, soo go seahawks I guess."



i personally believe that with the weather we are having up here 36 degrees and rain off and on with some kickin wind at times... could not pose well for a team traveling east to west ... they did get a little help with the 1:30pm kick off time, but still the loudest stadium in the nfl, and a team who really expects to lose this game playing basically for fun... doesnt bod well for the aints, BUT with all the ways i can see a seattle upset, they did play their first playoff game last week vs the rams and that team put everything they had in that win, the common sense in me says Take the SAINTS and lay the -10.5 and cash it in... there is no f'n way this **** off a pass defense cant stop brees... but at same time im with stiffler i am totally confused at this ******* line? -10.5 i seriously was expecting 17+ i dont care if they are road team, They are an 11-5 defend superbowl champ road team, vs a first time ever 7-9 division winning champ... seriously when i see -10.5 i wanna bet big on the seahawks to cover... i dont think there is any way in hell they win this game...

i dont wanna be the guy to stop someone from a play but if you were my close friend and u told me you were gonna bet the seahawks moneyline, id take your money and call the gambling hotline lol..... with that being said i might put $50 on the moneyline myself because ive been wrong most this season on big games:thumbs:

[DukiesBaby]

im a HUGE E-A-G-L-E-S FAN:beerbang:

with that being said you should expect me to have a very bias opinion that the E-A-G-L-E-S will skull (bleep) the packers in their ears ass & mouth!! vick wasnt the quarterback in week #1 vs packers and this team is different now than first 4 weeks




jets vs colts.... the debate do i really wanna bet against the best quarterback football has ever seen, also do i really wanna bet with these colts so injured and not winning their division till weak 16? i dont think these colts are ready for this game... but yet neither are the jets, what have they done but choke down the stretch like the colts... i think chromo oppisite of revis will be the difference in this game and i think the colts are a 1st round exit this year... but only by 3-5 points....

chiefs vs ravens..... chiefs huh let me lay this out on the table... i hate you (bleep bleep bleep bleep bleep mother bleepers) ok feel better now... do the ravens really need to worry about there pass def here? cassel is a threat? ravens are getting alot of respect as a fg favorite on the road... this game reaks of an under play... so ill be taking the over, and if this is going over i will need the chiefs to score which means they are on their game which means everything i just wrote is nonsense, yet im going with the home team and gonna wait for 3+ points, if i cant get it at +3 or better than ill just no play and go with the over...


gut feeling

Seahawks 17 Saints 24

Colts 20 Jets 22

Eagles 34 Packers 17

Ravens 24 Chiefs 28


On Paper thoughts..

Seahawks 0-10 Saints 38+

Colts 20-24 Jets 17-26

Eagles 24-38 Packers 10-27

Ravens 17-27 Cheifs 10-28



it might not help anyone but yet its still another opinion to add to the pool Good Luck everyone this weekend and GO EAGLES!:beerbang:

[FearTheRaven]

During the first half of this season, the Chiefs improved dramatically, ranking sixth in the league against opposing rushers. After Week 9, though, they collapsed. The Chiefs have had the worst rushing defense in football over the final eight games of the year, and against the Ravens, that could be a devastating flaw. - ESPN Insider/Football Outsiders

The Chiefs suck vs the run so I expect a very healthy dose of Ray Rice. KC's weighted defensive rank is 28th on Football Outsiders (18th on pass and 26nd on the run). I think this team is so overrated and it can easily be seen when looking at ypp stats and schedule strength. Baltimore's defense is ranked 3rd overall in weighted defense (5th vs the run and 6th vs the pass). On offense they have Baltimore's weighted offense 12th (7th pass, 13th rush) and KC 16th (9th run, 15th pass). Overall offensive rank Balt is 14th and KC is 23rd. Baltimore also has a special teams advantage on this site ranking Balt 3rd and KC 30th.

I am just not buying this young, immature team with a coaching problem (Weis leaving) actually coming to play this weekend and beating a veteran team who knows how to get it done on the road.

[V3r1f13d]

Hey I love a live dog just as much as anyone here, but I just don't see it.

I would be completely SHOCKED if Seattle scored 2 TD's on offense.

Not even the refs can give you the ML on this one.

[Daws1089]

for the guys expecting the saints to be -17 do you really think they would do that? We barely saw +17 for any regular season game why would they make a playoff line anything near that?

[blitzkrieg555]

Eagles beating the Pack 34-17? Green Bay hasn't lost by more than four points all year.

[DukiesBaby]

Eagles beating the Pack 34-17? Green Bay hasn't lost by more than four points all year.

do the packers have a quality win all year? the eagles beat atalnta by 2 td's ... greenbay beat a diff eagle team in week 1.. packers had all there good opponents spread out throughout there scheduel and lost all 4 of their big games, whether its by 4 or 100 they still lost.. plus packers defense is really good this i have backed all year.. but the packers havent played a mike vick... and mike vick will run all over that zone def the packers play...



why shouldnt we expect a 17 point spread? saints beat the seahawks this year 34-19 with no reggie bush, no pierre thomas, and this was the game before thanksgiving, saints are healthy again on offense and its the playoffs this game means something, seattle just came off an emotional win last week, and in their previous matchup drew brees threw 2 ints 1 at the seattle 4 yard line and 1 at the 8 yard line both in the second half... that at minimum costs them 6 points, which covers a 17 point spread... the more and more this breaks down its seems like people "want" the seahawks to win so they talk the seahawks up within themselves as a possibility...

can u give me a reason why the seahawks deserve any credit? why they shouldnt be 17 point favorites, i mean u like them at +10.5, what do u see that makes this 7-9 team with the 27th ranked pass defense and the 21st ranked run defense vs the 3rd ranked pass offense in the NFL? (which is now healthy again)

[Badger]

im a HUGE E-A-G-L-E-S FAN:beerbang:

This is where I think your reasoning falls apart. Your homer glasses are clouding your handicapping on this one IMO.

Your last argument was about where are the Packers signature wins this season? But if that clown punter for the Giants punts it out of bounds like he's supposed to, do the Eagles even make the playoffs? So the coin goes both ways. The Eagles couldn't beat the Vikings with a rookie QB, the same team the Packers beat twice ... so if we're going to start basing our decisions on that criteria we can go back and forth all day.

The fact is this is going to be a great game. Vick is very dangerous, he had over 100 yards rushing after the Packers knocked Kolb out of the opener. If he runs free the Packers are toast.

But in the same token, the Eagles defense with a rookie Coleman at safety and backups at corner, you have to admit the Packers 4- and 5-wideout formations are going to pose a huge problem.

I'm not going to lie, I want the Packers to win. I'm still bitter about that 4th-and-26 game. But I think an Eagles win by 14 points is a little delusional.

Good luck and may the best team win. :beerbang:

[Underdog88]

Saints/Seahawks- Seems to me that everyone is starting to warmup to the idea of playing the Hawks as a huge homedog here. Though I would love to entertain the thought of hitting a large dog in the playoffs, I just can't get behind this play. I don't buy for a second that the Seahawks are coming into this game with any momentum whatsoever. How can you call 1 home win to get into the playoffs after going 2-9 last 11 games previous momentum? They put up 16 points vs the Rams, who btw looked putrid offensively. I give Seattle's D credit for stepping up in that one, but they aren't facing a rookie qb in this matchup. Brees carved up Seattle last meeting, and I have a hard time seeing Seattle's D holding him down. The loss of Ivory may not be as big as many people think, Julius Jones/Bush IMO are somewhat comparable to Lynch/Forsett. Bush can't run in between the tacles well, but he is a threat out of the backfield and had 125 all purpose vs TB. If Seattle applies blitz pressure (I would assume they do so much like the Falcons did on MNF), he could make them pay in the screen game.

Maybe if the hawks were halfway efficient running the ball you could make a case for them, but this is a team with the #31 rushing attack! If anything I think people aren't giving the Saints defense enough credit in this one. They held Blount to 3.5 ypc and Turner to 2.8 ypc last two games after being shredded by Rice.

I am a firm believer that good defense wins playoff games. While I don't think the Saints defense is the best, they are certainly better than the Hawks D. To me the biggest mismatch is the #27 pass D going up against the #3 passing offense.

Freeman went 21-26 237 5tds vs Sea. Cassell had a 129 qb rating with 4 tds. Brees despite throwing 2 ints still had a 106 qb rating vs them. How on earth will the Hawks suddenly be able to stop this offensive juggernaut?

10.5-11.5 pts may seem like a ton of points to be laying on the road, until you look and see that every Seahawks loss this season has been by 15 or more points. I see a Hawks su win as being very unlikely, and like Stif said would probably take a perfect storm to even have a shot, so I can't back taking the points either. Right now I am heavily leaning on the Saints team total o27 pts, as I think if they get ahead early it could get very ugly.....

[Underdog88]

Packers/Eagles- I think perception is a bit screwy on this one. The Packers defense has been playing lights out this season, and since week 8 they have allowed over 17 points just 1 time- 20 pts allowed vs NE while holding them to 249 total offensive yards. Conversely the Eagles have allowed less than 24 points just twice since week 8- 17 vs the Giants and 14 allowed in week 17 (which I don't put much value in). Shaub carved the Philly pass D up. Cutler threw for 4 tds.


I have seen a ton of talk about how the only reason GB won week one was that Vick didn't start, and he ran all over them 2ndh. As far as I'm concerned Week 1 can get thrown in the garbage as Vick wasn't starting, and GB didn't gameplan for him. Do you really think they will go into Philly not prepared for Vick running all over the place? While the lack of run game has hurt GB in certain spots, I think that they can do enough to keep Philly's defense honest. I think Philly regressed towards the end of the season and while the come from behind win vs NYG was exciting, it didn't have such a great effect on this team.

Packers team total o21.5 looks like a nice play to me given what I consider to be a mediocre pass D in Philly vs the #5 pass offense.