Playoff Discussion

**Underdog88** · 01-04-2011, 02:04 PM

My favorite play is the Colts right now. I think their passing game is going to be too much for the Jets, who IMO have faltered in the 2ndh of the season. Addai coming back really helps Indy's pass protection, as IMO he is far and away a much better blocking back than Brown/ Hart. Indy has put together 4 straight wins and even has a semblance of a running game together, rushing for 100+ in the last 3. Yes I know they were all against teams that can't stop the run, but my point is the Colts are becoming more balanced, and that makes the play action lethal. Defensively, they have held the last 3 opponents under 80 yards total on the ground each game. That was Jones-Drew, Oakland and the Titans. I do not think they hold the Jets that low, but I do think the Indy D is in playoff mode. I think the total could go either way, but as of right now I'm on the Colts

**Underdog88** · 01-04-2011, 02:13 PM

Chiefs/Ravens- Maybe I am just a Balty hater, but I don't think the defense is anywhere near what the perception of them is. I agree the Chiefs had a cupcake schedule, but they did what they needed to to get here, and I'm sure they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. I think KC has the edge in the run game, they are about even at qb. WR edge goes to the Ravens but Bowe is definitely a playmaker. I have seen people talking about the Ravens going to NE and beating them last year, but that was a totally different NE team- they had zero run game and no defense. Yes I am officially leaning KC. Betus has them +4-105, which I think is ridiculous, considering Pinnacle won't move off of -1.5. Because of what I think to be two defenses that are a bit overrated, I am leaning heavily on the over 41 as well. Pretty sure I will be getting flack for my leans here, so please try talk me off these plays :thumbs:

**bigbag12** · 01-04-2011, 02:48 PM

I agree in Balt. At -2.5 LV seems to be begging people to take that. ALL THEY HAVE TO DO IS WIN BY A FG!!!

Liking the Chiefs to win straight up.

Hate laying lots of points in the PO especially on the road, but I cannot unsder any circumstance bring myself to play Sea here. NO off a loss, Sea off huge win and just happy to be in it! Maybe a no play but if I do I see no other way but NO.

I'm torn on the J-E-T-S game as on paper you would think NY would just run it down their throats, but NY blitzes alot nad PM just eats that **** up and spit it out. Line has dropped below 3 for me, I may jump on Indy soon!

Leaning Philly as GB won the 1st meeting, but I am still pondering and looking this one over.

Have no opinions on the total yet although slight lean to U in the KC and Philly games.

**Canyonero** · 01-04-2011, 03:02 PM

To be honest, Ravens-Chiefs and Saints-Seattle could go either way so easily. The money you get by betting on NO is ridiculously small, ie. not worth the risk as they could just as well lose this game. Sure, they've beaten teams like the Falcons but on the other hand have blown many easy games this season.

Baltimore seems to be another favorite, but I have a feeling they are gonna blow it as I don't see them having the same fire as the Chiefs who are in the playoffs for the first time in a long time. Baltimore has always been disappointing in the postseason.

Still I am not going to lay any money on either of these games, just too unsure.

I still haven't made up my mind on Jets-Colts, either I'm gonna put money on the Jets or then pass this game as well, since the Colts passing game might be too much for the Jets IF THE COLTS GET IT RIGHT...which they haven't this season. So 99 % probability I'm gonna lay off of this game as well.

Philly gets my money, BIG TIME.

**msl1014** · 01-04-2011, 05:05 PM

To be honest my only real lean is Philly. They're pretty well-rested and I think they will be able to contain GB's one-dimensional attack.

The other three seem difficult to call.

I think the Indy/NYJ game comes down to the NYJ pass rush. NYJ's pass rush was pretty good against PIT, nonexistent against CHI/NE (second meeting), and they need guys like Pace/Taylor/Ellis to hit Peyton consistently. I do like the over in that game.

The Chiefs-Ravens game can go either way. The public seems to like Baltimore, but I think Arrowhead will be a hostile environment and it will definitely be a close game.

As for NO-SEA, I agree that SEA will be happy to be there while NO will be looking to represent the NFC in the SB again, however such a large spread could lead to a backdoor cover so I probably won't play it.

**Daws1089** · 01-04-2011, 06:25 PM

I love Seattle +10.5 and will consider the ML. This line is ridiculous. People who don't even really follow football are even getting overly concerned about this 7-9 team making the playoffs. Everyone is making the almighty prediction that the saints will destroy the seachickens. I don't see that happening at all. Definitely a close game with seattle having a chance to win. Here's why, Saints are a dome team, going on the road to play in crap weather outdoors in what can be a very loud stadium, and will be on saturday because of the playoff atmosphere and momentum Seattle has going into this coming off the elimination game. Saints have no real run game to speak of, and drew brees has now thrown an INT in 12 straight games. The saints defense has the propensity to give up a bunch of points on the road too. Some might say well, seattle can't run the ball either or they have a **** offense or the home field doesn't matter, but the seahawks aren't the ones laying 10.5 or i can actually get +11 on the road!! A homedog of this size in the playoffs is unheard of. I'm going large.

**bigbag12** · 01-04-2011, 06:34 PM

I may not bet all these, but I in a pickem money group which we have to have 6 picks every week. I have to pick 6 of 8 this weekend on some scale no matter what. Nut crunching time for the pickem group.

But I normally drop $50 on every pick I put in the pickem group but this week I most likely will stop at 3 or 4 actual bets.

**joepa66** · 01-04-2011, 07:03 PM

Like Baltimore! That's a team that has beaten almost everybody black and blue! The Ravens are +9 in TO margin in their last 4 games, are a ridiculous 4-1-1ATS on the road in their last 6 roadies this year. I like them to spank KC!

**V3r1f13d** · 01-04-2011, 07:32 PM

Rough picks so far I like Balt/KC Under, Indy/NYJ Over & GB/Phil Under

I still like NO -10.5, just a little hesitant. If Seattle scores a TD first that puts me in a huge hole. No way I would play the Hawks SU though. That's basically throwing money away.

**Daws1089** · 01-04-2011, 07:42 PM

so would you play NO -600 then? cuz I sure wouldn't

**birdsfan5** · 01-04-2011, 10:22 PM

Packers:beerbang:

**V3r1f13d** · 01-04-2011, 11:43 PM

Originally posted by Daws1089

so would you play NO -600 then? cuz I sure wouldn't

I would put 300 to pay 50 rather than 300 to pay 1200.

**BBNCJF** · 01-05-2011, 08:42 AM

Hey everyone,

I know that I am one of the newer guys on here, and I am admittedly torn on most of the games this weekend, so I don't know exactly how much my 2 cents will actually help, but here it is anyway.

The play that I feel is the most safe is Colts -3. I think the Jets are just too shaky this year all around. I agree that the pass rush could change things early, but I just think that no one is better at in-game adjustments than Peyton Manning. The Colts have not been dominating this year at all(understatement alert), but the Jets, at times have just looked bad. I find it almost impossible to bet against Peyton Manning in a home playoff game. Every team runs the ball well against the Colts, but I, personally don't have a lot of confidence that the Jets can. I will probably make a big play on this one.

I also (kind of) like Seattle +11. I agree with the idea that it is insane for a road team to give double digits in the playoffs, no matter who the teams are. Seattle certainly weren't close to being world beaters this season(another understatement), but they did win SU on the road as big dogs. Pete Carroll may not have much experience coaching big underdogs, but he definitely has experience as a coach in a big game(even if it wasn't at the pro level). The Saints have looked good this year, but they haven't looked unbeatable. Brees' tendency to throw interceptions has already been pointed outI will probably make small(1 unit) play on this one, but I am prepared to lose because the Saints can score a lot and quickly.

I am still thinking about the other games, but my early leans(without explanation for right now) are Baltimore -3 and Green Bay +2.5.

GL everyone:beerbang:

**Stifler's Mom** · 01-05-2011, 02:54 PM

Daws, I always read your threads and often consider your opinions when making up my mind on games. With that being said, I am really intrigued that you like Seattle so much here.

I get your thoughts on Seattle having momentum, home field, nothing to really lose, Brees being a turnover machine lately (which, imo, may turn out to be a moneymaker going against NO if they win this one), but I really don't think Seattle is the team to get the job done.

The Seahags have been beaten by a drum by every half decent team they've played this year, sans the overrated Chargers in week 3 and the Bears in week 6.

IMHO for some reason the books keep over valuing this ****ty Seahawks team and I actually think they're doing it again here, and for the life of me I can't figure out why they're not catching at least 18 points in this game. I fell for it with them catching +6.5 @ TB a few weeks ago, but for the most part this year I've managed to play against these fools or stayed far away. They are just plain putrid, imho. Every one of their losses has been by double digits, and I think the 'Aints will be able to handle the circumstances of playing at Seattle just fine.

I mean what does Seattle do well? Or even half decently? They are a probably a 3-13 team in ANY other division in the NFL, or at best 4-12.

There is no way in hell I would take Seattle on the ml this week to win, ever, at any price. IMHO they would need to play an absolutely perfect game and have the Saints turn the ball over AT LEAST 3 times to even be competitive.

I guess all of that makes me sound pretty square, lol, but I just think there are better dogs and spots to pick to go to battle with than these guys who I doubt are all of a sudden good now because they beat the hapless Lambs Sunday night and made the playoffs.

Playoff Discussion