MNF Thoughts / Discussion

[Details-Details]

Hey guys, just been looking at this MNFer between the Saints and Falcons and just wanted to throw up a couple thoughts, maybe get some commentary or have some stats / facts come to light that I havent considered

Off the top, to me, this looks like a really awful spot for the falcons, yes its MNF, yes its at home, and yes that place gets louder than all hell when its packed, but theres a few more reasons i think that this game will go to the Saints.

Although the falcons dont have the #1 NFC locked up yet, they know they only have to win one of their last two games to clinch home field, and after the Saints they play the lowly panthers and im sure that some players have atleast thought "well, even if we lose on monday, we have the panthers next week and we'll beat them easily"

New orleans was beaten by falcons by 3 earlier in the year, their kicker missed a FG in OT and a couple costly turnovers and inability to cover tony gonzalez really hurt them in that game. i think they play better and they have "THE REVENGE FACTOR" if you buy into that sort of thing.

New Orleans locks up a playoff spot with a win, and even though they have TB next week (should be a saints victory) they def wanna lock up a wild card home game and maybe get some rest for the playoff run next week in the 2nd half...

Falcons have won 8 in a row, against mostly cup cake teams, they might be 12-2 but the quality of win has not been overwhelming.

New orleans coming off a loss wants to right the ship...

I would love to hear some more thoughts for and against

But as of right now, im really liking New Orl +2.5

[Underdog88]

Not sure how can be seen as an awful spot for ATL. Even though they only need 1 win of the next two, they will be motivated as ever to do it at home vs the Saints. I don't quite buy the Saints wanting to win this one and ATL not really caring as much. Pretty sure both teams will be motivated to get the win tonight.


The argument can be made for Atlanta not facing too many tough teams, but then you must hold the Saints to the same criteria. The Saints have two wins vs teams with a record over .500.... the Steelers and Bucs. Now they are facing at the least a top 5 team in the nfl on the road and getting 2 pts? The Saints will likely be able to throw all over Atlanta, but Atlanta is much more balanced offensively, and right now IMO the much better team. I like the home team to get the job done here:thumbs:

[Details-Details]

good stuff UD, gotta love using stats to justify a bet because theres always a way to skew them in yours (or my) favor.

bad spot for ATL may be an overstatement, maybe just part of how im trying to make sense of my soon to be placed bet on the saints.

GL to ya

[Daws1089]

pretty tough to bet against matt ryan who is 19-1 at home. But why is the line less than 3?

[Franchise]

pretty tough to bet against matt ryan who is 19-1 at home. But why is the line less than 3?

Because there are plenty of people like Details that remember that NO was in the Super Bowl last year. I like atlanta as well and while NO had chances in that game it was in NO. I think we'll see a steady dose of Michael Turner and then more Michael Turner. If you look at what the teams are putting on the field the biggest reason the line is low and people like NO is Drew Brees and what he did last year. This year, Atlanta has been more consistent, more physical, more disciplined with turnovers and more balanced. As a bonus they are also exceptionally intelligent. Some of the care they are taking with players and plays and target heart rates during practice is incredibly interesting. Mike Smith will be well prepared.

[mgh56]

I actually LOVE the Saints tonight. In the first meeting between the two, N.O. also had 3 turnovers so I'm hoping that they shore that up. I've got a strong feeling that they win outright. GLTA........

[Underdog88]

. But why is the line less than 3?

Imagine if this line was 3/ 3.5. Everyone would be buying the hook and/or playing a teaser involving the +10.5.

[Daws1089]

understandable udog, but i just can never get passed why this powerhouse 12-2 team with a qb who is 19-1 at home can never seem to be favored by 3 or more at home against anyone decent? i guess i should thank the books because that would create value, but i always proceed cautiously because the falcons have been on a tear with covering games. 6 straight ats wins....

[COACH DITKA]

BetUS has 2.5 and +/- 51 but both team totals set at 24.5?

[Daws1089]

what is the juice on the team totals?

[Underdog88]

what is the juice on the team totals?

super juiced. Falcons -155/ Saints-130. I'm waiting till the half and hoping for a low scoring 1sth. That being said they will prob score 28 1sth

[Fire]

bodog has 3 and 51

I'll be live betting on rush plays for this game.