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NFL Week 16 Line Moves
Ravens by 3.5, Texans by 2.5 and more
December, 24, 2010
By Chad Millman, Senior Editor ESPN The Magazine
It's no secret that I like to think of gambling as more than just luck and love. There is science and logic to it. Deep study, profound thinking and careful examination of numbers can lead to enlightenment -- or at least the discovery of trends that win 54 percent or more over a long period of time.
For example, Dan Fabrizio of the sports betting info site SportsInsights.com enlightened me the other day when I called him to talk about the Week 16 NFL line moves. His site, which I wrote about earlier this season and which got a nice write-up in the Wall Street Journal this week, is as rich as it gets when it comes to the academic study of gambling. In fact, there is a link at the top his homepage called "Articles." Click on that, and along the left-hand side of the page is another link called "Academic Research." Seriously, he is cataloging the papers that people write and research to get a better understanding of how to bet sports. That's commitment.
In the middle of the Academic Research page is a paper entitled "Price Predictability: Insights from the NFL Point Spread Market." It was written in 2003 by Richard Borghesi. The paper, according to the site, "looked at in-season bias by analyzing games from 1981-2000. The researcher found a late season bias in the NFL Weeks 15, 16, 17 and playoffs."
But, what was the bias for? I'm glad you asked, and that I asked Fabrizio. It seems that in Weeks 1-14 from 1981-2000, home underdogs of 2-plus points covered 52.4 percent of the time. Not bad but not enough to turn a profit if you're betting with a vig. However, in the final three weeks of the season, home dogs of 2-plus points actually covered 60.7 percent of the time.
When Fabrizio started Sports Insights, he picked up the research where Borghesi left off. And the theory continues to hold up, with home dogs of 2-plus points covering 58 percent of the time.
Fabrizio's theories are entirely based on contrarian betting. The more bets there are on one side, the more he likes the other. It just so happens that more often than not the dogs mentioned above happen to be contrarian plays.
And there are a few this weekend worth looking at. Fabrizio helped me break them down.
Matchup: Houston Texans at Denver Broncos
Line moves: Texans opened at minus-3, currently favored by 2.5.
Fabrizio said that means: "This has the reverse line movement we love to see. There is one-way action coming in on Houston -- 76 percent of the bets -- but we like Denver because the line has moved in the Broncos' direction, which means that is what some sharps like. We track square books and sharp books off shore. The square books all have more than 81 percent of the action on Houston. At the sharp books, it's closer to 65 percent."
Matchup: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Line moves: Ravens opened at minus-3, currently favored by 3.5.
Fabrizio said that means: "This is clearly one sided, with 93 percent of the bets coming in on Baltimore. You rarely see a team get that many more bets. But Baltimore had a big win against New Orleans and Cleveland, which has had some public support; lost to Cincy. What's big about this game now is that the public support pushed the game off of three and up to 3.5. Getting that hook is huge. Right now you are buying Cleveland on a low and selling Baltimore on a high. I would definitely recommend this game."
Matchup: Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders
Line moves: Colts opened at minus-3 and holding.
Fabrizio said that means: "This is right in our wheelhouse. Every square bettor in the world might be thinking, 'This is unreal; Indy is only favored over Oakland by three?' But Oakland can run the ball, control the line of scrimmage and keep this game close. This almost looks like a trap line to people asking themselves, 'How do you not bet Indy minus-3?' With all the action coming in on Indy right now -- 81 percent of the bets -- you would have thought this line was going to move. But I think there is sharp money coming in on Oakland keeping it balanced."
Matchup: Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins
Line moves: Dolphins opened at minus-3.5 and holding.
Fabrizio said that means: "This game I love. Nine times out of 10 the public takes the favorite, but in this case they are taking the underdogs. That's because the Lions are a public team. You would have laughed at that idea last year. But Detroit had a big win last week against Tampa, which pushed it to 10-4 against the spread this year. Miami has also been pretty bad at home, and that is another reason why people like Detroit. That is why in our philosophy there is value in taking the Dolphins. I like Miami and would wait to bet this until it gets to three, which should happen on Saturday or Sunday."
Matchup: San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals
Line moves: Chargers opened at minus-7, currently at minus-9.
Fabrizio said that means: "This is another contrarian play I like. San Diego has been playing out of its head, and with 87 percent of the bets on San Diego this number was pushed way up. I think there is a lot of value in Cincy. They won last weekend and are playing at home. Getting off of seven makes me more excited about that game, too. For a home team to be a dog off of the key number is exactly what we are talking about."
December, 24, 2010
By Chad Millman, Senior Editor ESPN The Magazine
It's no secret that I like to think of gambling as more than just luck and love. There is science and logic to it. Deep study, profound thinking and careful examination of numbers can lead to enlightenment -- or at least the discovery of trends that win 54 percent or more over a long period of time.
For example, Dan Fabrizio of the sports betting info site SportsInsights.com enlightened me the other day when I called him to talk about the Week 16 NFL line moves. His site, which I wrote about earlier this season and which got a nice write-up in the Wall Street Journal this week, is as rich as it gets when it comes to the academic study of gambling. In fact, there is a link at the top his homepage called "Articles." Click on that, and along the left-hand side of the page is another link called "Academic Research." Seriously, he is cataloging the papers that people write and research to get a better understanding of how to bet sports. That's commitment.
In the middle of the Academic Research page is a paper entitled "Price Predictability: Insights from the NFL Point Spread Market." It was written in 2003 by Richard Borghesi. The paper, according to the site, "looked at in-season bias by analyzing games from 1981-2000. The researcher found a late season bias in the NFL Weeks 15, 16, 17 and playoffs."
But, what was the bias for? I'm glad you asked, and that I asked Fabrizio. It seems that in Weeks 1-14 from 1981-2000, home underdogs of 2-plus points covered 52.4 percent of the time. Not bad but not enough to turn a profit if you're betting with a vig. However, in the final three weeks of the season, home dogs of 2-plus points actually covered 60.7 percent of the time.
When Fabrizio started Sports Insights, he picked up the research where Borghesi left off. And the theory continues to hold up, with home dogs of 2-plus points covering 58 percent of the time.
Fabrizio's theories are entirely based on contrarian betting. The more bets there are on one side, the more he likes the other. It just so happens that more often than not the dogs mentioned above happen to be contrarian plays.
And there are a few this weekend worth looking at. Fabrizio helped me break them down.
Matchup: Houston Texans at Denver Broncos
Line moves: Texans opened at minus-3, currently favored by 2.5.
Fabrizio said that means: "This has the reverse line movement we love to see. There is one-way action coming in on Houston -- 76 percent of the bets -- but we like Denver because the line has moved in the Broncos' direction, which means that is what some sharps like. We track square books and sharp books off shore. The square books all have more than 81 percent of the action on Houston. At the sharp books, it's closer to 65 percent."
Matchup: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Line moves: Ravens opened at minus-3, currently favored by 3.5.
Fabrizio said that means: "This is clearly one sided, with 93 percent of the bets coming in on Baltimore. You rarely see a team get that many more bets. But Baltimore had a big win against New Orleans and Cleveland, which has had some public support; lost to Cincy. What's big about this game now is that the public support pushed the game off of three and up to 3.5. Getting that hook is huge. Right now you are buying Cleveland on a low and selling Baltimore on a high. I would definitely recommend this game."
Matchup: Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders
Line moves: Colts opened at minus-3 and holding.
Fabrizio said that means: "This is right in our wheelhouse. Every square bettor in the world might be thinking, 'This is unreal; Indy is only favored over Oakland by three?' But Oakland can run the ball, control the line of scrimmage and keep this game close. This almost looks like a trap line to people asking themselves, 'How do you not bet Indy minus-3?' With all the action coming in on Indy right now -- 81 percent of the bets -- you would have thought this line was going to move. But I think there is sharp money coming in on Oakland keeping it balanced."
Matchup: Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins
Line moves: Dolphins opened at minus-3.5 and holding.
Fabrizio said that means: "This game I love. Nine times out of 10 the public takes the favorite, but in this case they are taking the underdogs. That's because the Lions are a public team. You would have laughed at that idea last year. But Detroit had a big win last week against Tampa, which pushed it to 10-4 against the spread this year. Miami has also been pretty bad at home, and that is another reason why people like Detroit. That is why in our philosophy there is value in taking the Dolphins. I like Miami and would wait to bet this until it gets to three, which should happen on Saturday or Sunday."
Matchup: San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals
Line moves: Chargers opened at minus-7, currently at minus-9.
Fabrizio said that means: "This is another contrarian play I like. San Diego has been playing out of its head, and with 87 percent of the bets on San Diego this number was pushed way up. I think there is a lot of value in Cincy. They won last weekend and are playing at home. Getting off of seven makes me more excited about that game, too. For a home team to be a dog off of the key number is exactly what we are talking about."