Suicide Pool Help

[PhillyFan3]

Well I am through 13 weeks in the suicide pool and there are 5 people left, and considering the teams I have used Week 14 is going to be the toughest week of the suicide...

here are my options let me know what you guys think

Jaguars vs Oakland
Browns at Bills
Broncos at Cards
Niners vs Seahawks
Vikings vs Giants (either way)

I used all the good teams pretty much, so any help would be huge, thanks guys!!

[Underdog88]

It's a scary pick but I really like the Bills to win at home vs the Browns this week. Perception is off after the Bills getting blown out at Minny, and the Browns winning outright @ Miami. It's tough to win 2 straight road games in this league, and Miami girt wrapped the game for Cleveland last week. The Bills won't do the same.....

[bigbag12]

take Denv to win with the regime change. They will play harder for a week or 2 now.

[The Mailman]

I think Seattle is the no brainer of the bunch. Great home team playing vs. really ****ty SF team.

[Underdog88]

I think Seattle is the no brainer of the bunch. Great home team playing vs. really ****ty SF team.

SF is home

[Underdog88]

take Denv to win with the regime change. They will play harder for a week or 2 now.

They could be motivated, but I don't know how you could trust a team to win on the road when they've only done it once this season

[bigbag12]

ya flip side to that is Ari is about as pathetic. Ari next to last in Total Off at 265 YPG. Denv (#11 at 357 YPG)should be able to score enough here to win in this spot IMHO.


But as we all know Udog, thats why its called gambling not winning lol!:laughing:

GL:beerbang:

They could be motivated, but I don't know how you could trust a team to win on the road when they've only done it once this season

[The Mailman]

Oops, when you listed sf vs. sea I figured sea was at home.

Disregard my take on that.

[Badger]

If it were me ...

I'd lean toward Jacksonville.

You got the Raiders off a huge rivalry blowout of SD last week, so there's an obvious letdown spot this week for the Silver and Black. Plus, you have the whole West Coast team traveling to the East Coast dynamic.

On paper at least, it looks to me like the most solid pick of the week IMO.

Good luck with whomever you choose dude! With five guys left are you "in the money" yet? Or is it winner take all?

[Underdog88]

If it were me ...

I'd lean toward Jacksonville.

You got the Raiders off a huge rivalry blowout of SD last week, so there's an obvious letdown spot this week for the Silver and Black. Plus, you have the whole West Coast team traveling to the East Coast dynamic.

:thumbs:

[PhillyFan3]

Guys thanks, I really appreciate the help...Here was where I was leaning..

My initial thought at first was Jacksonville as well, but the way Oakland played offensively and defensively against SD was very impressive, and when Oakland plays their best and the Jags play their best, I really think Oakland is the better team(cant believe I am saying i think OAkland is good) the 100 game factors in big time though..Jags have been winning these toss-up games all year, thats the main reason I like them right now...

MY second thought was actually the Niners, SF can somehow still win the division, they have the better talent IMHO, they get a team that is weak on the road, revenge game, all Alex Smith needs to do is hand the ball off to Westbrook/Dixon, this run D for Seattle is weak...

UDOG....when I first looked at the week, I was leaning Cleveland, then I Saw BUffalo open up as a favorite, I think the Bills win but I dont have the balls to pick em...

BB....I like the Broncos to win, Arizona is really bad, I think even worse than Carolina....THe problem I face is picking a 3 win team to win a road game in week 14 with absolutely nothing to play for, these games are always tricky...if its in Denver I do them in a heartbeat

[Horfin]

Best advice I ever received was before you do something that is questionable say it out loud first:

Vikings vs Giants (either way)
Could you live with yourself if you had to say: I was down to the final x and lost in week 14 because I picked a 5-7 team to beat a 8-4 team. Gotta throw out Minnesota over NYG. I'd avoid NYG on the road becuase they are 3-2 on the road and a 60-40 is not what you are looking for. I think NYG are overrated anyway.

Browns at Bills
Same philosophy as above, if you made it this far how can you put everything on the Browns on the road.

Broncos at Cards
We have seen twice this year that a change in coach equals a win the next week. I doubt it happens here, Josh McDaniels has completely destroyed this team.

This leaves these:
Jaguars vs Oakland
Niners vs Seahawks

Another peace of advice: When in doubt go with the home team, but they both are

Another peice of advice: fade the public especially when there is more than 70% on a side, but not applicable here, it is extremely odd that SF is a favorite by 4.5 to 5.5 points and 66% of public is on Seattle

In the end, San Fran is too up and down and so is seattle. I mean SF killed ARZ on MNF and after being humiliatd by TB and followed up the MNF by being blown out on the road to GB.

I think you are left with Jax:
you have the WC to EC at 1:00 phenomenon. Oak is 2-4 on road with wins against Denver and San Diego, they won last week on the road and 2-4 road teams usually don't win back to back road games that is why they are 2-4 on the road. Jax is 4-2 at home and the only downside I see is that Jax could look forward to the upcoming Indy game. But the interviews I have heard Coach whats-his-face has the team really focused.

My two cents are:
#1 Jax>Oak
#2 NYG>MIN (a far far distant #2)
#3 all the rest.

Good Luck with whatever you choose.

horfin

[PhillyFan3]

Going Jaguars....My buy-in was 150 and the pool is around 15k-16k....should I hedge Raiders for like 200-300 this weekend, thoughts?

[Horfin]

How many people are left? How many spots does it pay? WHat are the payouts for each spot?

[Horfin]

I re-read your post. Five people left and 1st plays $15,000 (approx)

I see Oakland at +170.

The ideal hedge would be $5,652 on Oakland at +170 thus if Oakland wins you get back $9458.00

If Jacksonville wins you get 15,000 minus $5652 and get back $9,348

This assumes that if Jax wins you win the whole thing, but it is entirely possible that you don't. SO there is no way in the world you should put that much on Oakland. (BUT THIS GUARANTEES $9,400)

I'd put that max you feel comfortable with losing on Oakland but DEFEINETELY put something larger than $88.00 on Oakland. $88 is your magic number. If you put $88 on Oakland and they win then you get your $150 back and you neither win nor lose anything.

Thus anything between $88 and $5652 makes total sense. I'd go with a number like $300 ASSUMING you are comfortable losing that in the event that you win this week but get knocked out next week.

I wish you the best (This is a great position to find yourself in ...great picking this year):thumbs: