***Week 10 Discussion***

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  • Billy The Kid
    Alpine Drive? Big Place!
    • Sep 2008
    • 469

    ***Week 10 Discussion***

    Currently seeing 5 games with lines between 1-1.5 so should be some money to be made picking the winner. Public is currently on all 5 road teams in these 5 games at over an 80% clip except for tomorrows game (Baltimore +1 65% public action). Personally never like playing a public backed road dog.


    home dogs:

    Bears +1.5

    Browns +3

    Broncos +1

    Redskins +3



    Bears +1.5 - Battle of the old Brett Favre, and Cutler, the modern day "Brett Favre". Old Favre coming off one of his classic come from behind victories and all of sudden their seems to be love in the air again for the Vikings. I'm not buying it. This is still a team that is 2-3 in their last five games giving up an average of 26 points per game. I do have concern for the Bears inability to keep Cutler upright at times, but IF he can hang on to the football, I like the Bears to win.

    Browns +3 - Last weeks line against New England was as square as they come and many here were able to capitalize, unfortunatley I wasn't one of them. Curious to see what everyone's thoughts are this week. Can the Brownies do it again against another one of the top teams in the AFC. Public doesn't think so, but yet the books throw us a line of +3? Are the books telling us that another Cleveland victory is possible. No way IMO do the Browns run the football against the Jets like the did against a poor NE defense. I didn't have the stones to back the browns last week, not sure if I do this week either.

    Broncos +1/43- strong lean on the over right now and slight lean Broncos. Chiefs on B2B roadies off of a loss in a game they clearly could have on IMO. Possible hangover. Broncos meanwhile are back off their bye and have lost their last four games. IMO Denver should be up for this game and seems to be catching the Chiefs at a good time situationally. Stopping the run has been a huge issue for the Broncos this season and the Chiefs rushing attack could pose nightmares for Denver if they didn't get things figured out over the week off.

    Redskins +3 - another divisional game with the home team catching points off of their bye with the public pounding the road team. Eagles off a big home win against Indy and do have the revenge angle after getting beat by the skins at home earlier this season. In that game Donovan McNabb was only 8-19 for 125 yds but was able to manage the game well enough for the victory. Donovan is going to have to be more ative in the offense this time around IMO for the Skins to pull it out. Eagles are looking like one of the teams to beat in the NFC and will only get stronger as they get healthier. Going to look into this one more and watch some movement throughout the week, but right now leaning Eagles.


    other leans Falcons, Jaguars, Colts, Titans/Dolphins Under
    Last edited by Billy The Kid; 11-10-2010, 02:51 PM.
    NFL '12
  • Daws1089
    Moderator
    • Mar 2007
    • 7814

    #2
    I'm actually leaning baltimore tomorrow. Falcons can't even muster a -3 line at home? I know ravens are on an even shorter week but I have some doubts with atls defense, lines tellin me balt.

    Comment

    • Daws1089
      Moderator
      • Mar 2007
      • 7814

      #3
      TB is only a-6.5 in this situation? It would be tough to back CAR in this one, but its a division game, CAR defense is still intact. I just think the books are looking for TB money by putting the -6.5 out there. I always think that, but i think it's right. I mean really, why not -7. Why not -7.5? -6.5 makes people think, oh man they can win by 7 and stil win? with all those guys out for CAR, TB should def win by 7-10. But i just don't know.

      Comment

      • Daws1089
        Moderator
        • Mar 2007
        • 7814

        #4
        and why do so many peopele ( not necessarily on here) want to continue to back houston? That team is in a tail spin and i want no par tof them. That defense is horrid, just horrid.

        Comment

        • Underdog88
          I drink your milkshake!!!
          • Mar 2007
          • 13981

          #5
          Originally posted by Daws1089
          and why do so many peopele ( not necessarily on here) want to continue to back houston? That team is in a tail spin and i want no par tof them. That defense is horrid, just horrid.
          really like that game over
          Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

          Comment

          • blitzkrieg555
            Newbie
            • Oct 2010
            • 18

            #6
            Originally posted by Underdog88
            really like that game over
            Yeah... both teams are gonna want this game. Houston puts up big numbers and Jacksonvilles offense has shown improvement. If Garrard can play like he did last week this should be a shootout.

            Comment

            • blitzkrieg555
              Newbie
              • Oct 2010
              • 18

              #7
              Pittsburgh/New England? I think taking the points might be a good idea on this one. It should be a close one... I think.

              Can the Browns hang in there again this week? The Jets have been less than impressive lately and even more difficult to predict. I'm kinda leaning toward taking the points.

              Comment

              • Daws1089
                Moderator
                • Mar 2007
                • 7814

                #8
                matt ryan 17-1 at home. so why the eff is this line only -1????

                Comment

                • bigbag12
                  Member
                  • Mar 2007
                  • 197

                  #9
                  Ya thought same thing. Teams fairly even cept lean to Balt on D. lines smells fo sho!

                  Comment

                  • Billy The Kid
                    Alpine Drive? Big Place!
                    • Sep 2008
                    • 469

                    #10
                    starting to lean the other way after initially thinking ATL might be the play. Line does seem fishy to me to Daws after looking closer. Both teams 6-2 but the quality of opponents definitley sawys Baltimores way. Atlanta has only beaten 2 teams with winning records as ol'ball coach mentioned in another thread. Atlanta's offense rests on the shoulders of Michael Turner and the Falcons ability to run the ball. In both their loses this year Atalnta has rushed for only 58 and 65 yds. Ravens run d hasn't been as good as in years past but they are still no sloutch, having only allowed over 100 yds to one back this season (P. Hillis). IMO Baltimore has more playmakers on both sides of the ball and have been generating lots of turnovers since the return of Ed Reed.
                    NFL '12

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