***NFL Week 6 Discussion***

[Underdog88]

How time flies....


Week 5 Homedogs were 3-1

Dogs were 9-5 ATS & SU

Over 9-5


I think totals could be a bit inflated this week, and I am definitely leery of any big lined dogs this week. One thing is for sure, Dog MLs are profitable in the NFL:thumbs:


Homedogs this week


Rams+9 vs Chargers

Bucs+5 vs Saints

Redskins+3 vs Indy

Jaguars+3 vs Titans



Rams off a blowout loss @ Detroit, where they outgained the Lions but had 3 turnovers. SD had 3 fumbles lost, allowed 2 blocked punts and 1 fumble return for a td. They also amassed 500 total yards. The Rams I think are still better than people are giving them credit for, especially defensively. They have played well at home and SD is 0-3 on the road. Still the high line could be vegas expecting a blowout. Have to look more into this one but I don't see how you could lay that kind of chalk with a team that hasn't proved anything all season.....

Bucs- I can say the same for the Saints. The biggest factor of success other than the Saints high powered offense last season was their takeaways defensively. It just isn't happening this season, I believe NO is -6 to margin the last 3 games played. You simply won't cover fave lines if you turn the ball over that much. Lack of run game has hurt the Saints as well. TB off a come from behind win vs Cincy where they won despite having 3 turnovers (Cincy had 4). Saints biggest margin of victory was 5 @ Minny, and now they are just -5 @TB? Not sure I like the situation TB is in here because of the su win on the road, but I will say the Saints are the 31st ranked rushing attack and you beat TB by running the ball. Biggest concern about backing TB for me is although they are ranked as a good pass defense, they have faced Carolina, Cleveland, Pitt, and Cincy. Safe to say this is their biggest test.

Skins- Washington is killing it as underdogs this season. Hit Skins ml vs Dallas, Philly, and GB. Not sure if they will be able to string 3 in a row vs the Colts here though. They have scored over 17 points just once this season, and I think this could be the game it catches up to them. Skins pass D is suspect as hell, allowed 497 3 tds 1 int to Shaub, what will Peyton do? #30 pass D vs 11 tds 2 int and an avg of 317 ypg for Indy. The Colts weakness is the run D (as always), but with the Skins avg 88ypg/ 3.9 ypc, I don't think they will be able to exploit it. I don't necessarily think the Addai injury really hurts the Colts all that much.... Lean Indy as I think Washington's inability to sustain drives kills them here.....

Jaguars/Titans- I think this could be the Chris Johnson show, Jaguars defense is god awful. At the same time not the best of spots for the Titans off a su win on the road....have to look deeper there.

[Underdog88]

Plays I'm looking into


Steelers team total over- Inflated line because of Rapelisburger's return, but the spot is too bad for me to back the Brownies in any form. Are the Browns really doing this to Colt? Pitt will load up on the run and make the Browns throw. Steelers lost going into the bye, and only mustered 14 pts vs Baltimore. Now with a passing game that has to be respected, it should make the run that much more of a strength. Leaning hard on Steelers team total over, last 4 meetings @Pitt the Steelers have scored 27+, no reason for me to think they don't make a statement here.


49ers- Raiders won their superbowl last week, while the Niners lost yet again. Finally a team the Niners can run all over, setting up the playaction. Just a bad situation all around for the Raiders here, and seeing how the spread really hasn't come into play much this season, I'm not all that worried about laying under a touch here. Niners roll.

[FlyersFan]

Chalkdog- what do you make of the KC/HOU game? I think that is the most intriguing game of the week in terms of line and total in that game. KC coming off of its first loss and a game they very well could have won if not for some drops and poor decisions. They frustrated Manning all day. HOU defense is a sieve. I was kind of surprised to see this total @ 44 in all honesty. But then again HOU has yet to hold a team under 24 points this year. On the flip side KC's offense has really stunk this year. They are 3rd from the bottom in Pass O and HOU is dead last in Pass D so something has to give. Based on that total number i think the oddsmakers are expecting it to be the HOU pass D that gives. Also the Chefs are ranked in the bottom 3rd in the league in Pass D and HOU is a top 10 pass team.

In the end I would lean to some TT Overs and possible game over. Not sure on the side

[FlyersFan]

Also going out on a limb and saying BUF doesn't lose this week....:hide:

DAL/MIN.......another interesting game as the loser is 1-4 and probably done from making the playoffs. Over?

TAM/NO i was looking to play Under.

[rocjones]

:laughing::laughing: FLYER U DID THE RIGHT THING HIDING BEHIND THAT SOFA

[Kevin]

I think the Browns are going to get blown out. Colt McCoy looked like absolute crap in the preseason. My first thought was that the Browns would limit his tosses and run the ball a ton but then I remembered that YOU CAN'T RUN against the Steelers, especially when they're expecting it.

I expect an absolute BLOWOUT this weekend by as many as 4+ scores.

[FlyersFan]

Cedric don't call me Blake but you might as well call me blake cause im injured that much Griffin is out for the year for the Vikings......doesn't bode well facing DAL and their corps or WR's.

[Daws1089]

agree on SF Udog.

OAK wins against an awful road team in SDG and now the public is in love with them? Maybe its more of the public being so low on SF. SF was a pretty big public play last week and it went down in flames so everyone is jumping ship on them, meanwhile this is probably a good time to back them, especially at home catching OAK on the road off that win.


ATL playing its 2nd straight road game and has a tall task at hand. Eagles have a ton of injuries, but somehow they are still favored in this game? I didn't think ATL even really played that well last week. Birds favored has me leaning that way.

INDY looks too easy, but still might win.


Anyone else think BALT could be walking into a hornets nest sunday? After the embarrassing playoff game last year in NE, I have to think with the long week they will be well prepared. Brady should be able to attack the secondary. Orton did it quite easily last week. My worry is NE's run D, but I do think this is a good spot to back NE.

[Daws1089]

Cedric don't call me Blake but you might as well call me blake cause im injured that much Griffin is out for the year for the Vikings......doesn't bode well facing DAL and their corps or WR's.

-1 at home against another 1-3 team doesn't exactly instill a lot of confidence in me that MINN can get it done either.

[FlyersFan]

ATL playing its 2nd straight road game and has a tall task at hand. Eagles have a ton of injuries, but somehow they are still favored in this game? I didn't think ATL even really played that well last week. Birds favored has me leaning that way.

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tough to call right now as Desean "thanks for drafting me in your fantasy league, here's your 2 catches for 21 yards you can thank me later" Jackson has a knee injury of some sort....Vick's status is questionable at best right now among others as you mentioned all the injuries....would like to know the status of both of those guys before getting involved. Kolb appears unable to get the ball deep to anyone at this point IMO. He has relegated Jackson to Aurelious Benn numbers in his 2 weeks in there.

[Daws1089]

jackson came back into the game sunday after getting injured and I'm fine with Kolb or Vick at qb in this game.

[FlyersFan]

jackson came back into the game sunday after getting injured and I'm fine with Kolb or Vick at qb in this game.

thanks for the heads up on jackson....guess i didn't realize he came back in because Kolb can't/won't/doesn't get him the ball. They are definitely a more explosive team with Vick playing the way he did in the first couple of weeks and I would much rather have him in (playing the way he has) than Kolb. I do agree with you on the Eagles here off first glance.

[FlyersFan]

INDY looks too easy, but still might win.


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What about looking Over in that game? I don't see Manning and crew being held down 2 weeks in a row and he always tends to shine on the big stage. Interesting stat that WAS D is 9th in PPG allowed by DEAD LAST in YPG allowed this season. Indy is also in the bottom 10 in YPGA this year. I think that Manning gets them in the end zone especially with the matchup of the #4 pass offense versus the #28 pass defense. Washington will get theirs too on that Colts D with the #6 rated pass offense versus a middling Colts D with secondary issues. Both teams in the 20's IMO and with a total @43 i like my chances with the Over. Plus if you believe it to be a "passing game" then there are more plays/posessions than in a run based game due to incompletions and bigger chunks of yardage IMO. I kind of feel the same way that I did about the Chargers/Radiers game last week in that sense.....Winner will have 27+ IMO and i can't see the loser in the mid teens. Total of the week IMO as I think this one clears the number by a TD+

[Daws1089]

one reason the skins have that stat of low ppg and last in yds allowed per game is because they have played the eagles, cowboys and packers who all struggle to get tds in the red zone and mostly rely on big plays. I heard today something like the packers have had 18 4th quarter posessions this year and 2 tds to go along with it. You and I both know Indy is deadly in the red zone and they better than anyone can execute on this Skins D. I like that over as WASH should be able to muster some offense. McNabb continues to air it out and it's not like INDY's secondary is anything special so I can def see them struggle to contain the likes of moss, armstrong and cooley.


Gonna see if there are any other overs out there that stick out. If Vick plays I'd consider looking at the over in that game.

[hodown]

Homedawgs have been on fire, but I jumped on Indy -3 asap. Indy's two losses have been road losses against rivals. Washington has been playing excellent in the underdog roll, but I think they're do to letdown here.

I also think the Bears get their route on here. Seattle is coming off bye, but Seattle has sucked heading east for as long as I can remember. The bye will help, but its pick the winner range and Chicago gets this done with Cutler returning.

Broncos as a homedawg looks mighty interesting. Saints and Chargers lines are ridiculous, not sure if that's telling us something.

I will probably pass on Phi/Atl, think both teams are due for a loss. Dal/Minny line screams Dallas to me.