Week 5 Discussion Thread

[Daws1089]

I'm liking BUFF +1 @home against JAX

Jags with a huge divisional win, come back down to earth when they hit the road and allow BUFF to win their first game. BUFF should be able to load up on the run and hopefully muster some offense. I cannot warrant a play on JAX when they are laying pts on the road. I am thankful for helping us findout that Indy may not be that good this year.

Other home dogs are CLE +3, Redskins +2.5, ARIZ +7, and Raiders +6.5

I like WASH +2.5 against GB. GB has not played as well on the road and this line says WASH. a weak -2.5 pt fav is not something I like to back and usually spells trouble. Yes, WASH didn't play particularly well on sunday @ philly, but it was still a road win in the nfl which is something that is difficult to do. They come home to catch GB who most likely won't have the prolific scoring success that they've had mainly because they either can't/won't run the ball. Eagles struggled sunday because WASH could sit in the 2 deep zone and force things underneath, but also because Philly wouldn't run the ball. Yea I know Rodgers is way better than Kolb, but still think GB could struggle in this spot on the road as we've seen that there are not very many if any premiere teams this year. A lot teams can beat anyone.

Interested in possibly backing CLE, but not certain yet. ATL still doesn't strike me as a legit team.

[Underdog88]

I am thankful for helping us find out that Indy may not be that good this year.

I still think this a 12-4/11-5 type team, it was just the perfect setup for them to struggle vs Jax last week.

[Billy The Kid]

Don't really get why the Ravens are laying -7 to the Broncos. Baltimore off a big divisional win in a game where IMO they got lucky to pick up. Is public perception that high on Baltimore and their D still. The big concern for the Ravens comming into the season was the injuries in their secondary and I don't think they have really been exposed yet playing the likes of Jets, Cincy, Cleveland, and Pitt. Denver's passing offense has been great thus far with Orton and a relatively average recieving core. I think they have a great shot at winning out right. Also don't see how the argument can be made about Balts. offense being able to cover. The game against Cleveland week 3 was supposed to be thier chance to break out and they really didn't do so IMO. I Think the numbers (Flacco 3 TD's/Boldin 144 rec. yds) are a little misleading as things didn't come that easily. Denver +7 looks solid and possibly a ML play. ( Denver is on B2B road games after winning straight up as a road dog previous week. Not sure what the trend is here, pretty tough spot. Still think they match up well however)

Kansas City +8 - While the Chiefs 3-0 start is far from what anyone expected and surely not a clear indication of how good/bad they actually are, I do think they are a tough matchup for the Colts this week. Only problem being the Colts looking to rebound off a bad loss @ Jax. Kansas City has to run the ball 35+ times and control the clock witch is the strength of their offense. Think this one stays pretty close.

[Underdog88]

Ravens-7/ Ravens team total over/ game over39

Broncos are a solid team this season, and have a very good passing attack. I had them ML last week vs the Titans, but I think this week they are in some trouble facing the #1 passing defense in the NFL. I will say this is the best passing attack the Ravens will have faced by a longshot. B2B road game winning first su, I think that trumps any kind of letdown the Ravens may have coming off the road win vs the Steelers. (ON a side note, I can't believe I even got involved in that game- was off it all week then added Steelers right before game). Ravens team over as it stands will be 23. Likely my favorite play of the week, as 5 of 6 home wins for Balty went over 31 pts last season. Also Denver allowed 27+ in all 4 of their road losses last season.


NYG@Hous o48


If ever there was a game that had shootout potential, imo this is the one. Texans defense EXPOSED- pass d is allowing 334 per game, could be just what the doctor ordered for Eli. The Giants are allowing 117 per game on the ground and have to face the #1 rushing attack in football right now. Titans went for 161, Indy went for 160. I can see Houston doing the same. The Giants are ranked #2 vs the pass defensively, but IMO that is a little bit of smoke and mirrors, having played the Panthers and Titans. Giants D looked great against the Bears, but I think both defenses struggle in this matchup.



Cardinals+7

Saints continue to play close games, line inflated due to blowout @SD.




49ers-3.5

Would have much preferred Vick to play, and getting the Niners under a fg. At this point every Niners game is a letdown, so that is some concern.

[Underdog88]

The big concern for the Ravens comming into the season was the injuries in their secondary and I don't think they have really been exposed yet playing the likes of Jets, Cincy, Cleveland, and Pitt.

Good point, I just think that it's a bad spot for Denver....

[Daws1089]

One concern for Denver I think is that they have just 4 sacks through 4 games. If they can't pressure a qb on the road it can be overbearing.

[Underdog88]

This imo is a game where Denver's lack of rushing offense could catch up to them. Tough to beat the Ravens at home with a one-dimensional offense.



The more I'm looking at it the more I think the linesmakers expect the Giants to beat the Texans. Why in the world are they just-3 at home?

[Billy The Kid]

Good point, I just think that it's a bad spot for Denver....

Agree it is bad spot. Total may be the better play, was leaning over

[Q-Unit]

This imo is a game where Denver's lack of rushing offense could catch up to them. Tough to beat the Ravens at home with a one-dimensional offense.



The more I'm looking at it the more I think the linesmakers expect the Giants to beat the Texans. Why in the world are they just-3 at home?

I'm guessing they base a lot of the Cowboys being able to get to Schaub two weeks ago, and here at least the Giants should be able to do the same, the reemergence of their running game

[Daws1089]

Some injuries to consider:

Lesean McCoy with a broken rib, unsure if he will play. Asante Samuel and Quinten Mikell appear to have consussions. and of course Vick is expected to miss a week or two.

Packers SS Morgan Burnett is out for the year

Chargers S Steve Gregory who starts is suspended for 4 games.

Some other tidbits I saw were that Marshawn Lynch got traded to SEA for a 4th rd pick next yr

Santonio Holmes and Brian Cushing are both back after suspensions.

[Daws1089]

Bungles -6.5 seems off. Possible another weak 6.5 pt fav going down? TB is better this year and although they took a beating from PITT, I think CIN is a far cry from PITT and TB has had the bye week to prepare. I thought a -3 would be more appropriate for this game. TB def has a chance to win this game.

[FlyersFan]

I Love SF this week......Eagles are AWFUL with Kolb at the helm. Dude can't read a defense, plus RB for Eagles has a cracked rib from what i heard.

like the Over in the Oakland/SDG game.


hey daws- did Samuel get that concussion on one of those tackles he whiffed on in the Washington game...:laughing:

[Daws1089]

yes he dif flyers, must have got it when his head hit the ground lol. Worst tackler ever.

[Underdog88]

Looks like the bills are cleaning house. The chargers over looks good to me too

[FlyersFan]

Chalkdog- what do you think about the HOU/NYG game over this week? I think that and the Los Raiders game might be my 2 favorite Overs. I have it @ between 47.5 and 48.5 at a couple of my books. High number for an NFL total (might be one of the highest so far) but the NYG have some injuries and aren't good IMO anyway on D. HOU is nothing special. I would like to know if Andre Johnson is playing this week for HOU first....that helps.

Also, PITT just announced that Rothlesmolester will start at QB next game.....:laughing:....did they really need to make that announcement as if they were sticking with Charlie Batch.......:hide:

and what up with the Vikings about to acquire Randy Moss....:dunno:.....