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JoePa's NFL Week #4
JOEPA'S UPDATED YTD: 3 - 3
UNITS: -.60
Love doing write ups, but just haven't had the time for some reason. Cold and rainy here so no 25 mile bike ride for me so I get to do some actual explanation of my picks!
SAN FRANCISCO +7 @ Atlanta - This game has all the markings of a trap. The 49ers are 0-3 but could easily be 2-1 if not for mental mistakes and just plain bad luck. They turned the ball over 4 times against the Saints, while the Saints had no turnovers, and yet SF still only lost by 3 points. Atlanta is coming off a big win against the Saints because the Saints turned the ball over 3 times. The Falcons are just 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 games after winning two straight games and they are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after they allowed less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. The 49ers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of +3.5 to +10 points and they are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. The 49ers come into this game with a huge chip on their shoulders and urgency to get the win.
OVER 42.5 San Francisco/Atlanta - Playing the Trends - Man the battle stations for Mike Singletary and company......I like the SF side but it seems nobody is interested in the side because the books have bumped up the total from 40.5. A trendy explanation for the rise is when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points and the road team is off one or more Over’s, facing opponent off two or more consecutive Over’s, the contest goes beyond the total 74.5 percent of the time.......(41-14). Maybe too much reading of tea leaves but.....
SAINT LOUIS +2 vs. Seattle - Was last weeks win vs. the 'Skins just an aberration? A 30-16 win where they out-gained and out-passed a top team much the same way they did against Baltimore in the first week of the season and came out winners. Don't know what happened in the sandwiched games vs. Oakland and Arizona! And look at the Seadawgs.....they have been out-gained all four weeks, giving up 429 yards passing vs. San Diego last week, and were the beneficiaries of 3 TOs and still only won 27-20 at home! They are -5 in TOs on the road and have given up 800+ yards of offense in those games. The Rams are much better at home (2-1) so I'm biting on the points.
HOUSTON -3.5 @ Oakland - Why did Houston go from -4 to -3 road favorite against Oakland? The Raiders coulda, shoulda, woudla won last week @ Zona, and the Texans lost to Dallas an 0-2 start a team much too talented to start 0-3. However, Da Raidas always manage to find a way to lose games and Houston has a lot of weaponry to attack the Raiders with. Houston's Andre Johnson is a game-time call but is that a big enough injury to steer clear of this game? Oakland might win half their games at home this year but are 9-25 ATS as a home underdog of seven points or less. The number appears to be headed the wrong direction.
OVER 34 Pittsburgh/Baltimore - Pure Trend Play - These are two AFC North rivals are known for defense, and the line move from 36.5 to 34.5 doesn’t necessarily hold up even with Charley Batch at quarterback for Pittsburgh. Ten of the last 15 meetings in the Steel City have gone OVER and the Steelers are 16-6 OVER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in three straight games.
CLEVELAND +3 vs. Cincinnati - The Browns are used to being 0-3, but their three opening losses have come by a combined 12 points and they have led in the fourth quarter of each game. Cleveland might get Jake Delhomme back this week, but is that really a good thing?! The Bengal offense isn't exactly setting the world on fire and Carson Palmer's QB rating has been in the mid-50s the past two weeks.
OVEN MITT YTD: 1 - 1
9/26: 1 - 0
"DEFINITELY"
NEW ORLEANS -13 vs. Carolina
BOL to everyone! :thumbs:
UNITS: -.60
Love doing write ups, but just haven't had the time for some reason. Cold and rainy here so no 25 mile bike ride for me so I get to do some actual explanation of my picks!
SAN FRANCISCO +7 @ Atlanta - This game has all the markings of a trap. The 49ers are 0-3 but could easily be 2-1 if not for mental mistakes and just plain bad luck. They turned the ball over 4 times against the Saints, while the Saints had no turnovers, and yet SF still only lost by 3 points. Atlanta is coming off a big win against the Saints because the Saints turned the ball over 3 times. The Falcons are just 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 games after winning two straight games and they are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after they allowed less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. The 49ers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of +3.5 to +10 points and they are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. The 49ers come into this game with a huge chip on their shoulders and urgency to get the win.
OVER 42.5 San Francisco/Atlanta - Playing the Trends - Man the battle stations for Mike Singletary and company......I like the SF side but it seems nobody is interested in the side because the books have bumped up the total from 40.5. A trendy explanation for the rise is when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points and the road team is off one or more Over’s, facing opponent off two or more consecutive Over’s, the contest goes beyond the total 74.5 percent of the time.......(41-14). Maybe too much reading of tea leaves but.....
SAINT LOUIS +2 vs. Seattle - Was last weeks win vs. the 'Skins just an aberration? A 30-16 win where they out-gained and out-passed a top team much the same way they did against Baltimore in the first week of the season and came out winners. Don't know what happened in the sandwiched games vs. Oakland and Arizona! And look at the Seadawgs.....they have been out-gained all four weeks, giving up 429 yards passing vs. San Diego last week, and were the beneficiaries of 3 TOs and still only won 27-20 at home! They are -5 in TOs on the road and have given up 800+ yards of offense in those games. The Rams are much better at home (2-1) so I'm biting on the points.
HOUSTON -3.5 @ Oakland - Why did Houston go from -4 to -3 road favorite against Oakland? The Raiders coulda, shoulda, woudla won last week @ Zona, and the Texans lost to Dallas an 0-2 start a team much too talented to start 0-3. However, Da Raidas always manage to find a way to lose games and Houston has a lot of weaponry to attack the Raiders with. Houston's Andre Johnson is a game-time call but is that a big enough injury to steer clear of this game? Oakland might win half their games at home this year but are 9-25 ATS as a home underdog of seven points or less. The number appears to be headed the wrong direction.
OVER 34 Pittsburgh/Baltimore - Pure Trend Play - These are two AFC North rivals are known for defense, and the line move from 36.5 to 34.5 doesn’t necessarily hold up even with Charley Batch at quarterback for Pittsburgh. Ten of the last 15 meetings in the Steel City have gone OVER and the Steelers are 16-6 OVER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in three straight games.
CLEVELAND +3 vs. Cincinnati - The Browns are used to being 0-3, but their three opening losses have come by a combined 12 points and they have led in the fourth quarter of each game. Cleveland might get Jake Delhomme back this week, but is that really a good thing?! The Bengal offense isn't exactly setting the world on fire and Carson Palmer's QB rating has been in the mid-50s the past two weeks.
OVEN MITT YTD: 1 - 1
9/26: 1 - 0
"DEFINITELY"
NEW ORLEANS -13 vs. Carolina
BOL to everyone! :thumbs:
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