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Just thought i'd get this started.
Just glanced over the card and a few things stuck out immediately.
The Bungles are a bad team once again who has done absolutely nothing to earn the respect they are getting, and now they're a road fave for the second straight week? I think they lose outright, possibly in a bad way. Palmer has looked erratic and awful throwing almost as many passes to the opponent as to his own receivers, and OchoZero is imo one of the worst receivers in the league. When was the last time he made a big play, or had a 12 catch/150 yard day? Yet he keeps getting respect like he's some sort of star? Whatever....just keep making the Bungles road faves, please....
Seattle is also a road fave? That's pretty much an auto-fade since I can remember, and I see no reason for that to not continue here, especially considering they've been outplayed every week but have been fortunate enough to win twice due to special teams scores and opponent's mistakes.
It's also normally a good idea to fade a team who is a home fave that won outright the previous week as a road dog. One would be Tennessee this week, who won at NYG, despite having the ball moved all over them pretty much at will, only for Peyton's little brother to have like 4 picks in the red zone and whatever else the NYG did to blow that game. And it seems their holes in the secondary play right into Denver's strengths with the talented WR corps they have. An outright Denver win wouldn't shock me there.
Atlanta, another team who won outright as a road dog last week and is now a home fave, might be due for a letdown this week, as beating the Saints had to rank up there pretty high on their "to do" list for this season if they want to win the division...while SF has no choice but to play a strong game....not only for their season, but also for their jobs. Singletary isn't going to accept losing and half assed efforts and I think the players are going to get the message after the changes he's already made, and come alive this week and play up to their potential, winning outright. Reminds me a little of Dallas/Houston last week where Dallas was in a similar spot and so was Houston and Houston came out flat as a pancake and continued to lay eggs all afternoon.
Other than Cincinnati, the other Joe Public specials will be (imo) Indy, NYJ and NE.
I think Indy will probably find a way to win outright like they usually do against bad teams on the road, but that the game will probably be closer than most are thinking after the 28-3 whoopin the Jags took from Philly last week, and that Jax should have every chance to cover whatever the number climbs to by Sunday. It opened at Indy -7, which also leads me to believe the oddsmakers agree on the Jags chances to be competitive cause they could have easily thrown up a -9 for Indy and still gotten really lopsided public money on them.
NE laying just -1 on MNF shows that the oddsmakers aren't sold on them, and really, what have they done this season for them to be? Beating a massively overrated Bungles team in their home opener, getting handled by the Jets, and then winning a shootout at home against the no offense Bills isn't exactly championship caliber football, and I think Miami should be able to exploit their weak defense just like Buffalo did, and with a few stops on defense, should win half comfortably just like the Jets did against them 2 weeks ago, as NE was a poor road team all last year and there's no evidence of that changing this year.
I also think Pittsburgh is due to let down this week and will probably lose, even if it is a divisional game and rivalry. After 2 straight road wins, they come home and can only muster a -1 fave line against Baltimore? Looks like the oddsmakers aren't as sold on them as Joe Public is. Why is beating TB such a huge deal anyway? Granted, I agree the Steelers D has looked great, but, they haven't really faced a team (other than Atlanta in their home opener) that could really exploit it yet either, which Baltimore **should** be able to do. Doing so and getting a lead will put Batch/Steelers O in a different situation than they were in last week, not having the luxury of playing from way ahead against an inferior team, and they might be able to be forced into some game changing mistakes by what can still imo be considered an opportunistic type defense that is looking to confuse opposing offenses and create turnovers, and might have some success against a guy who has barely seen any playing time in the last 4 years or so. Huge game for the Raisins too, as they can't drop to 2-2 with the Steelers going to 4-0 with Ben returning, and they bring more intensity and in the end, win it outright, imo.
Can anyone give me a reason why Washington keeps is close @ Philly other than that McNugget is going to be returning and wanting to prove himself? -6.5 for a home team the public is now all of a sudden in love with is the old "hey, i'll gladly lay under a TD" line with the public thinking they are laying under a td for a red hot Eagles team to beat a team who just lost to the freakin Rams, and normally suggests an outright road dog win. I'm still not sold on Vick being this superhuman QB all of a sudden either just because he could put up numbers on Detroit and Jacksonville. Then again, I'm really not sold on Washington as much other than a 7-9 type team either.....
Curious as to what the rest of you have to add, but I had a little time this morning (for a CHANGE) and figured i'd share my initial thoughts on this week's games
Just glanced over the card and a few things stuck out immediately.
The Bungles are a bad team once again who has done absolutely nothing to earn the respect they are getting, and now they're a road fave for the second straight week? I think they lose outright, possibly in a bad way. Palmer has looked erratic and awful throwing almost as many passes to the opponent as to his own receivers, and OchoZero is imo one of the worst receivers in the league. When was the last time he made a big play, or had a 12 catch/150 yard day? Yet he keeps getting respect like he's some sort of star? Whatever....just keep making the Bungles road faves, please....
Seattle is also a road fave? That's pretty much an auto-fade since I can remember, and I see no reason for that to not continue here, especially considering they've been outplayed every week but have been fortunate enough to win twice due to special teams scores and opponent's mistakes.
It's also normally a good idea to fade a team who is a home fave that won outright the previous week as a road dog. One would be Tennessee this week, who won at NYG, despite having the ball moved all over them pretty much at will, only for Peyton's little brother to have like 4 picks in the red zone and whatever else the NYG did to blow that game. And it seems their holes in the secondary play right into Denver's strengths with the talented WR corps they have. An outright Denver win wouldn't shock me there.
Atlanta, another team who won outright as a road dog last week and is now a home fave, might be due for a letdown this week, as beating the Saints had to rank up there pretty high on their "to do" list for this season if they want to win the division...while SF has no choice but to play a strong game....not only for their season, but also for their jobs. Singletary isn't going to accept losing and half assed efforts and I think the players are going to get the message after the changes he's already made, and come alive this week and play up to their potential, winning outright. Reminds me a little of Dallas/Houston last week where Dallas was in a similar spot and so was Houston and Houston came out flat as a pancake and continued to lay eggs all afternoon.
Other than Cincinnati, the other Joe Public specials will be (imo) Indy, NYJ and NE.
I think Indy will probably find a way to win outright like they usually do against bad teams on the road, but that the game will probably be closer than most are thinking after the 28-3 whoopin the Jags took from Philly last week, and that Jax should have every chance to cover whatever the number climbs to by Sunday. It opened at Indy -7, which also leads me to believe the oddsmakers agree on the Jags chances to be competitive cause they could have easily thrown up a -9 for Indy and still gotten really lopsided public money on them.
NE laying just -1 on MNF shows that the oddsmakers aren't sold on them, and really, what have they done this season for them to be? Beating a massively overrated Bungles team in their home opener, getting handled by the Jets, and then winning a shootout at home against the no offense Bills isn't exactly championship caliber football, and I think Miami should be able to exploit their weak defense just like Buffalo did, and with a few stops on defense, should win half comfortably just like the Jets did against them 2 weeks ago, as NE was a poor road team all last year and there's no evidence of that changing this year.
I also think Pittsburgh is due to let down this week and will probably lose, even if it is a divisional game and rivalry. After 2 straight road wins, they come home and can only muster a -1 fave line against Baltimore? Looks like the oddsmakers aren't as sold on them as Joe Public is. Why is beating TB such a huge deal anyway? Granted, I agree the Steelers D has looked great, but, they haven't really faced a team (other than Atlanta in their home opener) that could really exploit it yet either, which Baltimore **should** be able to do. Doing so and getting a lead will put Batch/Steelers O in a different situation than they were in last week, not having the luxury of playing from way ahead against an inferior team, and they might be able to be forced into some game changing mistakes by what can still imo be considered an opportunistic type defense that is looking to confuse opposing offenses and create turnovers, and might have some success against a guy who has barely seen any playing time in the last 4 years or so. Huge game for the Raisins too, as they can't drop to 2-2 with the Steelers going to 4-0 with Ben returning, and they bring more intensity and in the end, win it outright, imo.
Can anyone give me a reason why Washington keeps is close @ Philly other than that McNugget is going to be returning and wanting to prove himself? -6.5 for a home team the public is now all of a sudden in love with is the old "hey, i'll gladly lay under a TD" line with the public thinking they are laying under a td for a red hot Eagles team to beat a team who just lost to the freakin Rams, and normally suggests an outright road dog win. I'm still not sold on Vick being this superhuman QB all of a sudden either just because he could put up numbers on Detroit and Jacksonville. Then again, I'm really not sold on Washington as much other than a 7-9 type team either.....
Curious as to what the rest of you have to add, but I had a little time this morning (for a CHANGE) and figured i'd share my initial thoughts on this week's games
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