***Week 4 Discussion***

[Underdog88]

Raiders +3 was another line that jumped out. Houston was in a big let down spot last week against a Dallas team desperate for a win. Now off a home loss they are only laying 3 to the raiderettes in what should be a bounce back week? Bruce Grad. actually looked ok last week. I think the Oakland pass d can defenitley keep them around in the game, especially with a limited Andre Johnson

Possible hangover off a letdown with the Raiders. Also, I can see Houston running the ball down their throats with Foster all game. Oakland's run D is still atrocious, if I were the Texans I would run 35+. This is a game that the Texans will have to win if they want to be playoff contenders....

[Daws1089]

Yea I don't think they can make this line much higher after Houston's loss last week.

Giants already to -4 with all the love on chicago.... I should quit messing around because I wanted to play JAX and NYG and I've lost out severely on the lines since tuesday.

[Underdog88]

Honestly Daws I don't think the line comes into play.

[Underdog88]

Completely agree Stiff


Any thoughts on the Jets/Bills... I had this line @ NYJ -7.5 and was surprised to see it as low as -5. I know the Bills beat the Jets last year and lost in a close one but their offensive out burst last week was due to a poor New England defense, not a change at QB. While fitzy may be the better option I wonder how he will fair against the Jets D in only his second start of the year. Under looks like a better play to me than a side...Udog have any thoughts on your bills??

I do think it was the perfect time for the Bills to switch qbs, facing a subpar Pats pass d. I do not think Fitz does anything special vs NY, but the Dolphins were able to do anything they wanted in the pass game with Revis out. I was surprised, and yes Miami has much better wrs than Buffalo. My problem with playing the Bills is they can't stop the run. Especially late in games when the offense is sputtering ( a likely possibility vs NYJ) and the D wears down. It could be a close game, but I would worry about the Jets pulling away late. imo the line is saying play the under as the Bills just had a 68 pt total and the Jets/fins combined for 54....yet line is still 37.5. Dre Davis and Stroud are comfirmed out, Poz is likely back. NO type of athletecism at LB for Buffalo. Nobody will even come close to covering Keller. Maybe Buffalo keeps it close, but I don't think I can stomach betting it. I think 1sth could be the better option if backing BUffalo....

[Underdog88]

SF gave up 200+ on the ground to KC last week, and keeps a lower average because the first 2 teams they played may end up being 2 of the worst rushing offenses in the NFC when it's all said and done(NO and SEA).

By the same way of thinking you could say the Falcons average is too high because they played perhaps the two worst rushing defenses in Zona and NO. The Niners played Seattle and KC, two great teams vs the run. I don't think Atlanta's run defense is as good as either of those two teams. The Cardinals only rushed 13x, the Saints just 16x vs ATL, but Pitt ran 31 times @ 4.6 ypc. The Saints gave the game away last week, I do think it's a letdown possibility for Atlanta. I also think the Niners will come play hard nosed football, run the ball 30+ times, try to win TOP and keep it a closely played game.

Daws you mentioned zero pass rush for SF, but I think their pass D has been decent. Also odd that this line isn't moving though the world loves them some ATL. Hoe in the world were people looking to back sf +4.5 vs the SB champs, but now want no part of the same team vs ATL with more points? perception

[Billy The Kid]

I do think it was the perfect time for the Bills to switch qbs, facing a subpar Pats pass d. I do not think Fitz does anything special vs NY, but the Dolphins were able to do anything they wanted in the pass game with Revis out. I was surprised, and yes Miami has much better wrs than Buffalo. My problem with playing the Bills is they can't stop the run. Especially late in games when the offense is sputtering ( a likely possibility vs NYJ) and the D wears down. It could be a close game, but I would worry about the Jets pulling away late. imo the line is saying play the under as the Bills just had a 68 pt total and the Jets/fins combined for 54....yet line is still 37.5. Dre Davis and Stroud are comfirmed out, Poz is likely back. NO type of athletecism at LB for Buffalo. Nobody will even come close to covering Keller. Maybe Buffalo keeps it close, but I don't think I can stomach betting it. I think 1sth could be the better option if backing BUffalo....

Yea was leaning under already, looks like the best play. Possible Jets play at the half if it is close.

[Stifler's Mom]

Nothing special from me on the Bills. Using pick the winner, it's tough to take them. I think more than likely the oddsmakers opened the line low due to thinking people would be swayed by Buffalo looking pretty good at NE, but have since been pounded with public money on NYJ, and have adjusted accordingly all the way to 6.5 at some books, probably because no one wants BUF. NYJ had like 5 or 6 turnovers last year when the Bills beat them outright, and I don't really see that happening again.

Any backup QB's making their first start of the season this week?

[Underdog88]

Bills beat them outright, and I don't really see that happening again.

Any backup QB's making their first start of the season this week?

No dice

[Stifler's Mom]

Good. Gradkowski in OAK was in question for me. Makes it much easier to consider Houston today, lol. I know it's not the be-all, end-all, but that back up QB thing is pretty solid. 2-1 last week again.

[Underdog88]

I don't think the Jets are a good play here, but Bills are too risky! Third straight divisional game for the Jets, 2nd straight road game. Not the best of situations for the Jets.

[Daws1089]

I don't think we should write off SEA just because they are on the road. If Steven Jackson is out that team will really have issues on offense. Seattle has a decent run D and I think they can pull that win off. I know history says they play poorly on the road, but I'm getting the feeling they win this.

[Underdog88]

I don't think we should write off SEA just because they are on the road. If Steven Jackson is out that team will really have issues on offense. Seattle has a decent run D and I think they can pull that win off. I know history says they play poorly on the road, but I'm getting the feeling they win this.

Played Rams team total over and now I'm wishing I just laid off. Still think Bradford could have a decent passing attack today, but another game I'm to iffy about...

[Underdog88]

I'm on Broncos+pts and the over 43. I think the stats lie putting Titans as 4th best pass d in NFL when they faced Oakland, Pitt and the NYG threw all over them. The Broncos pass offense is really good. Also the Broncos haven't faced a top rushing offense (sorry Jones-Drew) until today. Could be a barnburner.....

[Underdog88]

I gotta give props to stiflers mom. If anyone paid attention to his thoughts you made money this week!

[Daws1089]

Agreed, it's a shame he doesn't post more often or post his plays. Always had a great viewpoint on nfl among other sports.