Week 2 Discussion

[hodown]

Week 1:

Daytime Games: Faves 8-4 ATS
Primetime Games: Faves 1-3 ATS

Home Faves: 6-2 ATS
Away Faves: 3-5 ATS

Primetime Games:

Giants @ Colts -5.5
Saints -4.5 @ 49ers

Away Faves:

Ravens -1 @ Bengals
Eagles -4 @ Lions
Texans -3 @ Redskins
Pats -1 @ Jets
Saints -4.5 @ 49ers

Didn't watch much last week, but per usual, the Road faves have massive public backing. Jets actually ran at a 5.5 ypc, surprising they only ran 21 times. Lions were outgained massive, and I don't see myself backing them no matter who's at QB for Philly. I would expect some kind of letdown from Baltimore, and Cinci should be a motivated unit after last weeks debacle. I think Houston comes down as well, having had extra motivation to play well against a division rival that they were 1-15 against going into the game. Bengals, Redskins, and Jets seem to be in good spots. I'm in no mood to bet on Detroit and/or against New Orleans at this stage.

I think home favorites Tennessee and Dallas are in play. Tennessee is in pick the winner range and are a serious team to reckon with. Pitt is still a wildcard in my eyes. Concerning Chi/Dal, being a Bears fan I think they are total pretenders. I think they'll be able to move the ball, but not unlike last year, they will suck it up inside the redzone. Furthermore, I think the CB's can and will be had. If my early record is any indication, you may want to fade these thoughts.

[FlyersFan]

I actually like the Bengals this week....this is a huge game for them and they came out last week like they weren't prepared for whatever reason. Once they figured it out they really played relatively solid football. I think this is a knee jerk reaction to the Ravens beating a Jets team that quite honestly looked to be about as bad an offense as any i have seen in this league. Lose here and you're 2 games back in the division and 0-2 to start. I think that the Bengals have a very good chance to win this game and will take the point. I also am debating using Cincy +8 in a teaser.

Teaser of the Week YTD:(1-0):

MIN +1 1/2 & ATL PK


early totals that jumped out YTD:(2-1):

Texans/Redskins Under44 1/2
Bears/Cowboys Over40 1/2

[NittanyLions94]

Early leans and thoughts:

Vikings -5.5, Under 39

Thought the Vikings looked alright against the defending SB champs in a tough environment. Favre losing his favorite target didn't help, as well as Harvin not being able to work much with him. Adrian Peterson should be able to get a little more going this time against a defense that won't be able to jump the run as quickly. Miami struggled with a pretty bad Buffalo team and needed a gift safety to cover that one. Minnesota's rush D scares me a little bit, but I don't think Miami will have all that much success throwing on them.

Pittsburgh +5.5

Loved them last week, leaning towards taking the points in what could be a pretty low scoring game. With Polamalu and Aaron Smith back, the defense as a whole can get back to where they were. Lawrence Timmons has battled some injuries, but he's healthy now. The Raiders ran on this team last week, and the Steelers should be able to get something going on the ground there. Not that enthralled with VY and the passing game either, and I think they can shut that down while focusing on the run.

Browns -2

I told myself I wasn't going to bet bad teams this year(or at least ones that I thought were bad), but I really like this spot Cleveland is in. KC is coming off a win that was fueled almost solely with the return game. Everyone saw then beat the vaunted Chargers(losing September record under Norv), and yet Cleveland is still -2? Not the best reason to bet, but it's interesting to look at.

Bears/Cowboys Under 40.5

Jason Garrett refuses to use his weapons, and Chicago flashed a decent pass rush this past week. Cutler is still not very good, and I don't see how they go on the road and successfully move the ball against the Cowboys' D.

[Underdog88]

Really like that teaser play FF, also at first glance that Cowboys over stood out to me.


Boys home opener off a loss where they couldn't put points up. I would think they are good for 27 or so with Chi putting up 14-20. Boys team total looks like a possible play for me.


As much as I really liked the Titans last week, I don't like the matchup for them this week. Pitt will ground and pound, I would expect 35+ carries from Pitt. The Steelers run D is stout, Chris Johnson was held to 57 yards last season. I can't endorse a play on a team laying chalk whose strength will likely be stifled just because their starting qb is out. Titans weakness is pass D imo, so the question is will Pitt let Dixon throw the ball on the road?




Ravens/Bengals o40- Not sure about the side just yet but I do think this number is a little soft. Yes I know both totals between these two ended up way under last season, but I think things are different now. I'm buying the Ravens as a legit team to do big things this season. Once the offense gels, they will be a tough team to stop. Never bough TJ as a number one wr, but opposite Boldin with Mason and Heap? I have a tough time seeing either team being held under 3 tds in this one.

[Underdog88]

Lean Broncos at home vs the Seahawks. SF repeatedly shot themselves in the foot vs Seattle. Broncos offense looks like it will be pretty productive, and Seattle is historically bad vs AFC.

[Underdog88]

Browns -2

I told myself I wasn't going to bet bad teams this year(or at least ones that I thought were bad), but I really like this spot Cleveland is in. KC is coming off a win that was fueled almost solely with the return game. Everyone saw then beat the vaunted Chargers(losing September record under Norv), and yet Cleveland is still -2? Not the best reason to bet, but it's interesting to look at.

This is one game where I think many will expect a KC letdown. I don't. On MNF they showed their commitment to the run game, and I think it will pay dividends vs the Browns. I thought KC's run D was pretty solid vs SD- the Browns averaged 4.5 ypc last week and still lost. I think the advantage goes to KC in the run game, defense and special teams. Cleveland looks like the same team that is turnover prone.... lean KC to get the job done on the road.

[Underdog88]

Early leans and thoughts:

Vikings -5.5, Under 39

Thought the Vikings looked alright against the defending SB champs in a tough environment. Favre losing his favorite target didn't help, as well as Harvin not being able to work much with him. Adrian Peterson should be able to get a little more going this time against a defense that won't be able to jump the run as quickly. Miami struggled with a pretty bad Buffalo team and needed a gift safety to cover that one. Minnesota's rush D scares me a little bit, but I don't think Miami will have all that much success throwing on them.

Agree with everything except for worrying about Minny's rush D (which played solid vs the Saints imo). Minny held the best offense in the league to 14 pts on the road. The Dolphins looked terrible offensively vs Buffalo, I think they will look that much worse vs Minny. Parcells was unhappy with the development of Henne in the offseason, and after watching last week's game I can see why- short arming passes and overall looking uncomfortable in the pocket. I think the Vikes could get a couple turnovers in this one. Buffalo was unable to generate any sort of run game, 50 total rushing yards. Does anyone think the same happens in Minny's home opener? Me either.

[FlyersFan]

This is one game where I think many will expect a KC letdown. I don't. On MNF they showed their commitment to the run game, and I think it will pay dividends vs the Browns. I thought KC's run D was pretty solid vs SD- the Browns averaged 4.5 ypc last week and still lost. I think the advantage goes to KC in the run game, defense and special teams. Cleveland looks like the same team that is turnover prone.... lean KC to get the job done on the road.

maybe it is just me and i will admit i missed the first quarter of the game and I may have been suffering from travel day weary eyes.....BUT....what did KC do on this game on offense? I mean they ran 3 plays in SDG territory in the first 3 quarters i believe. They were 1-11 on 3rd down and didn't even amass 200 yards in that game, and the TOP was like 38:00 to 22:00 in SDG favor. I think KC played well defensively, but still allowed SDG 5.9 YPP in that game. Not sure other than a bend but don't break defense what I could be sold on when it comes to KC to play them to basically have to win SU on the road (even if it is cleveland)

I am admittedly not a follower of the NFL like i follow CFB but to me I am not sold on KC to the point where I am going to basically ask them to win on the road (+2 is pretty much worthless and you have to think they will win to make that bet IMO) is tough. Delhomme is banged up I believe and that is a factor somewhat I will admit.

Guess my point is there have to be better plays than KC +2. But maybe not. JMO. I honestly would like to see another game out of both teams before trying to guess who has what this year. Not exactly rushing to play CLE either.

[FlyersFan]

Cowboys over stood out to me.


Boys home opener off a loss where they couldn't put points up. I would think they are good for 27 or so with Chi putting up 14-20. Boys team total looks like a possible play for me.



Ravens/Bengals o40- Not sure about the side just yet but I do think this number is a little soft. Yes I know both totals between these two ended up way under last season, but I think things are different now. I'm buying the Ravens as a legit team to do big things this season. Once the offense gels, they will be a tough team to stop. Never bough TJ as a number one wr, but opposite Boldin with Mason and Heap? I have a tough time seeing either team being held under 3 tds in this one.

You know i was thinking the same thing but then backed off. May give that a lot closer look later in the week and may tease that total down to 33 and play it over with like MIN +1 1/2 or something.


And same feelings on that DAL game. Week 1's were not an offensive show case for anyone and I expect Week 2 to be different. Bears can move the ball and for all the crap Cutler gets he can toss the ball around....sometimes to the other team and you may get some cheap scores in this one too.

[Franchise]

Personally one that jumps out at me along with Minny is NE -3 @ NJ Jets.

I realize this is getting pounded and is a very public play but the Jets are flat out overrated. I was concerned on Monday night about how the Ravens offense would gel with their new parts and that might lead to some struggles against the Jets. What it did was expose Cromartie and Wilson and I would expect to see NE just pound away at this weakness. NE is very good at attacking a weakness and will have no problem throwing the ball all over the field and playing hurry up for a quarter to exploit the Jets weaknesses.

Add in the increased motivation for Bellichek and Brady with all the talking by a team that was 7-7 in mid december and was allowed into the playoffs by Peyton and the Colts. The knocked off the power playoff teams led by Marvin Lewis and Norv Turner, two legendary playoff coaches. I expect a step on their throat game where the Pats try to embarass the Jets.

I also think the Jets hurt themselves more than they realized by getting rid of Faneca and that will be enough to give the young Pats defense a chance to fly around and make plays. Especially when you consider they only have to defend about 10-15 yards from scrimmage since the Jets don't attack downfield.

I see an FU game from NE like their undefeated season against a team that want to beat more than any other. They may talk the good talk in public but you can tell Brady has the big FU bone in him.

[FlyersFan]

Lean Broncos at home vs the Seahawks. SF repeatedly shot themselves in the foot vs Seattle. Broncos offense looks like it will be pretty productive, and Seattle is historically bad vs AFC.

The more I look @ that game the more I agree with you Udog......SEA could have been down 21-0 early in that game if not for the 49'ers ineptitude....Opener in Denver which is never an easy place to win....and I like playing average and above teams coming off a loss in an opener (especially coming home) going up against an average to below average team coming off a win in their opener. I think SEA will have a decent season but IMO, had they lost that game or barely won @ home, this line would have been more like DEN -6 or -7 and so I think there is a ton of value in them at -3/3.5 or whatever it is (probably -9 for me at betus...:laughing:)

And i agree with Franchise...that NYJ offense has been searching for any kind of leadership since camp and I think they are lost right now. That was as bad (not to take a thing away from b'more) an offensive performance as I have seen....and correct me if i'm wrong but lmao....BAL was missing like 2 starters in the secondary and they still couldn't take advantage of anything.

[Underdog88]

I may be in the minority siding with the Jets Sunday. I still think they Patriots defense is weak. The Patriots were bad on the road last season (2-6) and I don't think just because Welker is back their problems are solved. The Jets looked terrible on MNF, but I think things could be different vs the Patriots. The Bengals game could have been much closer if not for early lead and a special teams td.

[Guest]

I actually like the Bengals this week....this is a huge game for them and they came out last week like they weren't prepared for whatever reason. Once they figured it out they really played relatively solid football. I think this is a knee jerk reaction to the Ravens beating a Jets team that quite honestly looked to be about as bad an offense as any i have seen in this league. Lose here and you're 2 games back in the division and 0-2 to start. I think that the Bengals have a very good chance to win this game and will take the point. I also am debating using Cincy +8 in a teaser.

Agreed. Going to New England after the Patriots got physically pounded by the Ravens in last years playoffs was a disaster waiting to happen for whomever came to Foxboro. Brady and the Pats were a buzzsaw that would have chopped up any club that stepped on the field Sunday.

The Ravens are without a doubt a solid football team but they are far from a dominant team just because they beat the self proclaimed "Kings of the NFL". The Jets never tested the Baltimore secondary which is by far their weakness without Reed and Foxworth. That will change this week with Palmer, who has owned Baltimore, and the Bengals receiving corps. Not to mention Benson put up two 100 yard games against Ray Ray and the Raven run defense last season.

Emotionally and physically that was a huge game for the Ravens. They are now asked to go on the road, once again, on a short week and beat a motivated team in a building that has been a house of horrors for them recently? That is a lot to ask from any football team especially one that has lost in Cincinnati four out of the last five years.

The Bengals are definitely worth a moneyline play and without a doubt worth playing as a home underdog.