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Jack here. Love the site, some really good stuff here. Hopefully I can contribute!
A brief bit about me. I've been doing this for about 5 years. The first 2 years were breakeven and dissapointing. I tried to analyze, find the "smart" 1-2 picks a week. I ended up second-guessing myself and it felt like I kept making the wrong decision.
Rather than trying so hard to pick winners, I started just focusing on lines that I thought had "value". If I think the home team should be -7 and they are -5, it's an autobet. No second-guessing, no more analysis. That's not to say I don't analyze, but once value is identified I play it without remorse.
This has given me a 55%+ winning percentage each of the last three years. I flat bet only and record all my bets in terms of units (this season, 1 unit = $500). I'll also list the vig at -110 even if I find a better line, which I do try to do. I don't pay more than 10% vig.
Week 1 Picks (Locked)
- I try to do a writeup but this week has just been crazy with work, life, and fantasy football drafts. Feel free to ask and I will elaborate when I can.
CLE/TB (O37) - 2 Bad O's, 2 Bad D's, 2 teams that should be trying to prove they dont belong in the NCAA
IND (-2) Indy early season? Money. Indy vs Houston? Money.
BUF (+3) - Bills are bad but have a knack for covering early in the season
ATL (-1) Falcons have something to prove against a Steelers thirdstringer.
CHI/DET (O44) Either team may get there themselves. Each team should put up 20.
PHI (+3) - This line is way too high IMO. Kolb will surprise some.
-GJ
A brief bit about me. I've been doing this for about 5 years. The first 2 years were breakeven and dissapointing. I tried to analyze, find the "smart" 1-2 picks a week. I ended up second-guessing myself and it felt like I kept making the wrong decision.
Rather than trying so hard to pick winners, I started just focusing on lines that I thought had "value". If I think the home team should be -7 and they are -5, it's an autobet. No second-guessing, no more analysis. That's not to say I don't analyze, but once value is identified I play it without remorse.
This has given me a 55%+ winning percentage each of the last three years. I flat bet only and record all my bets in terms of units (this season, 1 unit = $500). I'll also list the vig at -110 even if I find a better line, which I do try to do. I don't pay more than 10% vig.
Week 1 Picks (Locked)
- I try to do a writeup but this week has just been crazy with work, life, and fantasy football drafts. Feel free to ask and I will elaborate when I can.
CLE/TB (O37) - 2 Bad O's, 2 Bad D's, 2 teams that should be trying to prove they dont belong in the NCAA
IND (-2) Indy early season? Money. Indy vs Houston? Money.
BUF (+3) - Bills are bad but have a knack for covering early in the season
ATL (-1) Falcons have something to prove against a Steelers thirdstringer.
CHI/DET (O44) Either team may get there themselves. Each team should put up 20.
PHI (+3) - This line is way too high IMO. Kolb will surprise some.
-GJ