The Knuckleballers 2010-2011 NFL Tracking Thread

**The Knuckleballer** · 09-12-2010, 09:24 AM

Overall Record (0-0-1) -.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-0) 0 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (0-0-1) -.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (0-0) 0 Units

Total Unit Based Record (0-0-.2) -.2 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (0.00%)

I have three picks to kick off the first Sunday of NFL action. Below are the picks with analysis:

Broncos +3 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units): According to my system, the wrong team is favored in this matchup. I have this game capped at Broncos -3. Orton should have time to look for his receivers today, as he goes up against a Jags defense that has struggled to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. In fact, the Jags had only 14 sacks last season (worst in the NFL with the next closest team being the Chiefs with 22). The Jags are a team that thrived on 3rd down last year, converting 45.1% of their 3rd down opportunities. The Broncos must get them off the field when they have the chance. 3rd down conversion % will likely be a telling statistic at the end of this game. Look for the Broncos to win this game by the score of 23-20.

Panthers +6 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): I expect the Panthers to be much improved this season with Moore starting at quarterback and two very dangerous running backs in Stewart and Williams. My system has Carolina defeating the Giants by 1 point. Per my ratings, the Giants had the most ineffective defense in the league last season, and I�m not sure if we will see much improvement this season. The Giants allowed opposing quarterbacks to have an average quarterback rating of 93.16, which was fourth worst in the league. Look for Moore to have a good game today, but I expect us to see a large dose of Stewart and Williams. I predict that the Panthers will win by the score of 23-21. Upset Alert!!!

Cardinals -3.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units): Quarterback questions abound in this matchup. Who will step up? The Cardinals released Leinart and cleared the way for Anderson to be the undisputed starter. In my opinion, this clears the air and takes a lot of stress off of Anderson. Now he just has to play football. The Rams were highly inefficient on offense and ineffective on defense last season. I don�t expect that to change overnight. The Rams defense was shredded by opposing quarterbacks and struggled to get off the field on 3rd down. Fitzgerald has a big day today, as the Cardinals win by 10+ points. I predict that the Cardinals win by the final score of 27-14.

**The Knuckleballer** · 09-12-2010, 09:27 AM

I'm trying to bump this thread up the board, because it is not showing that I have any new posts even when I do. Good luck to everyone today!!

**Underdog88** · 09-12-2010, 09:43 AM

GL today Knuckleballer :thumbs:

**The Knuckleballer** · 09-13-2010, 07:35 AM

Overall Record (1-2-1) -3.7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-1) -3.3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (1-1-1) -.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (0-0) 0 Units

Total Unit Based Record (2-5.5-.2) -3.7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (25.97%)

Tough start to the NFL season yesterday, and I only have one small play for tonight. Good luck and remember that this is a marathon not a sprint! We get stronger as the season progresses.

Chargers -4.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit): A contrarian at heart, I try not to make it a habit of siding with the public, but my system has a small play on Phillip Rivers and the Chargers tonight. Sure they have question marks. Will they miss LT? Can they win with Vincent Jackson suspended? Last season, the Chargers had the 2nd most efficient offense in the NFL according to my ratings. Unfortunately, they only averaged 3.3 yards per rush, which was worst in the league. Maybe trading LT was the right move. My system has this game capped at Chargers -8. I predict that Rivers shreds this Chiefs defense and the Chargers win by a score of 27-17. Good luck and enjoy Monday Night Football!

**The Knuckleballer** · 09-19-2010, 09:26 AM

Overall Record (1-3-1) -4.8 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-1) -3.3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (1-1-1) -.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (0-1) -1.1 Units

Total Unit Based Record (2-6.6-.2) -4.8 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (22.73%)

Coming off of a great Saturday in college football, I hope to see continued success this week in the NFL. The lines are tight, but I have found value in three of the early lines. Last week was tough, but many times, the first few weeks of NFL action are slow. Remember that this is a marathon not a sprint. My system is designed to win over long periods of time. Give it time and good luck today! Below are my picks for today:

Cardinals +6.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): After just one week, Atlanta�s offense was ranked 30th in the league (per my ratings). Meanwhile, Arizona�s defense was ranked 7th in defensive effectiveness. I expect for the Falcons to improve their offensive efficiency this week and move towards a more appropriate level for a team with this talent level (ranked 10th-15th in offensive efficiency). My system has the fair value line at PK. Meaning no team has a distinct advantage in this matchup. Thus, this game could be a coin toss, so I want to be on the side getting points.

Bills +13 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): This spread is large for a reason. The Bills struggled to get anything going on offense against the Dolphins last Sunday. Spiller failed to get off to the start that many expected. Thus, Rodgers and the Packers are big favorites this week. It all makes perfect sense, except that we have only played one game. The scary part for Green Bay backers is that 75% of the public agrees with the odds makers. As a contrarian, I hate picking with the public. My system has this line capped at Packers -7. I will take the points and hope that the Bills can generate some offense. Maybe Spiller will have a breakout game this week.

Steelers +5.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units): No Roethlisberger, no problem. This Steelers defense stymied the Falcons running game last Sunday, allowing just 58 yards on the ground. Can Johnson break through this defensive front seven? As a fantasy team owner, I hope so, but for the sake of this pick, I hope that Johnson struggles to get anything going on the ground today. My system has this game capped at Titans +2. A sharp contrast to the Titans -5 we are seeing at most books. Take the points and realize that you may not need them today. This is my UPSET ALERT!!!

**The Knuckleballer** · 09-19-2010, 09:44 AM

**joepa66** · 09-19-2010, 09:45 AM

Toss a shutout Knuckler.....GL :thumbs:

**The Knuckleballer** · 09-20-2010, 06:41 PM

Overall Record (2-5-1) -9.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-3) -9.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (2-1-1) +1.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (0-1) -1.1 Units

Total Unit Based Record (4-13.2-.2) -9.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (22.99%)

Yesterday was tough. The Cardinals and Bills took it on the chin, but the Steelers managed to pull off the upset in Nashville. Tonight should get us back on the right track. Below is my pick:

49ers +5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units): The Saints love the spotlight. They excel when the lights are on and the pressure is high. Unfortunately for the Saints they are running into a hungry 49ers team tonight. The 49ers struggled on offense and defense last week, but looking back to last season the 49ers ranked second in defensive effectiveness (per my ratings). Plus, their offense was ranked seventh in offensive efficiency (per my ratings). In my opinion, these statistics represent the true 49ers. Look for this team to bounce back in a big way on Monday Night Football. This game will likely go back and forth with several lead changes. My system has the 49ers losing by no more than a field goal, but I would not be surprised to see the 49ers pull of f the upset. Thus, I�m putting the Saints on UPSET ALERT!!! Good luck tonight!

**The Knuckleballer** · 09-26-2010, 08:47 AM

Overall Record (3-5-1) -7.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-3) -9.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (3-1-1) +3.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (0-1) -1.1 Units

Total Unit Based Record (6-13.2-.2) -7.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (30.93%)

Today, I have two big 4 Unit Picks. Both are dogs traveling to tough venues, but I am confident that both teams can walk away with the �W� if they play up to their numbers. Thus far, we have had a slow start to the NFL season, but I fully expect today to be a step in the right direction. Good and enjoy the picks!!

Titans +3 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): I have the Giants finishing no better than 3rd in the NFC East this season. Something just seems to be missing with this team. The Titans are coming off a mistake laden loss to the Steelers last Sunday, and they will be hungry for a win. Both the Titans and the Colts lost last Sunday. The difference between the two teams seems to lie on the defensive side of the ball. Last season, the Giants were dead last in defensive effectiveness according to my ratings, and they have showed very little improvement this season (ranked 30th currently). In contrast, the Titans are shutting teams down on 3rd down and forcing big plays. In fact, the Titans have only allowed their foes to convert only 17.2% of their 3rd down attempts. The Giants are allowing opponents to convert 42.9% of their 3rd down attempts. My system has the Titans winning this game by a touchdown. UPSET ALERT!!

Falcons +3.5 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): The public loves the Saints! They have a flashy offense and a defense that creates big plays. What is not to love? For starters, the Saints� defense has allowed opponents to convert 45.5% of their 3rd down attempts and have only managed only 1 sack (tied for last in the NFL). Secondly, they no longer have one of their most dangerous weapons (Reggie Bush is out with an injury). Finally, the public loves the Saints. According to my system, this line is based entirely off of last season�s stats and public perception. I have this game capped at Saints +4.5. There is definitely some value in this line. In fact, I would not be surprised to see the Falcons pick up a win in this division rivalry game. UPSET ALERT!!

Chiefs +3 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Browns +10.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Lions +11.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

**Underdog88** · 09-26-2010, 08:57 AM

Originally posted by The Knuckleballer

I have this game capped at Saints +4.5

How?

**Guest** · 09-26-2010, 11:46 AM

Good Luck with your picks today. I am off to a similar start this season, lets hope we can turn this thing around today. I'm going to follow your action today.......Lets get'em!

**The Knuckleballer** · 09-27-2010, 12:33 PM

Overall Record (7-6-1) +3.5 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-0) +8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-3) -9.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (5-1-1) +7.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (0-2) -2.2 Units

Total Unit Based Record (18-14.3-.2) +3.5 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (55.38%)

Yesterday was a great day! Both the Titans and the Falcons pulled off the upsets leading the way to a 4-1 day with two 4 Unit WINNERS!! Tonight, I have no picks. The line is very tight, and I would encourage everyone to wait until next weekend. Once again, there is NO VALUE IN TONIGHT'S LINE. Good luck to those that chance it!!

**The Knuckleballer** · 10-03-2010, 11:01 AM

Overall Record (7-6-1) +3.5 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-0) +8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-3) -9.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (5-1-1) +7.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (0-2) -2.2 Units

Total Unit Based Record (18-14.3-.2) +3.5 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (55.38%)

Panthers +12.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): This is a spread that will be covered due to a solid running game. Williams and Stewart have started slow this season, but look for them to get on track today against a Saint�s team that is allowing 4.39 yards per rush. The longer Brees sits on the sideline, the greater the likelihood that the Panthers cover this 12.5 point spread. My system has the fair value line at Saints -7. Good luck and enjoy the NFL action!

Falcons -7 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Bears +3.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

**The Knuckleballer** · 10-09-2010, 11:47 PM

Overall Record (8-8-1) +4.3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-0) +8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (1-3) -6.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (5-1-1) +7.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (0-4) -4.4 Units

Total Unit Based Record (21-16.5-.2) +4.3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (55.70%)

Bucs +7 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): The Bucs are coming off of a bye week, and they are playing a Bengals team that is recovering from a tough loss the Browns last week. My system has the fair value line at Bengals +1. This may come as a shock to many, but I fully expect this game to be decided by less than a field goal either way.

Eagles +3 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): The Eagles have several question marks, but what team doesn�t. The key to this game will be the Eagle�s defense. This Eagles defense has 12 sacks this season and they are holding quarterbacks to an average rating of 61.22. Combine this with Smith�s struggles thus far this season, and I don�t expect him to have much success. My system has the fair value line at 49ers +8. Thus, I am putting the 49ers on UPSET ALERT!

Rams +3 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Bears +3 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Broncos +7 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Titans +7 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

The Knuckleballers 2010-2011 NFL Tracking Thread