***The Knuckleballers 2010-2011 NFL Tracking Thread***

[Guest]

Nice System Knuckle

Hey Buddy, I wanted to congratulate you on your system. You are the man! I have been following your system this season. Keep up the great work! I look forward to your future picks this season!

Thanks,

Jester

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (12-10-1) +10.1 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-0) +8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (3-3) -.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (5-1-1) +7.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (2-6) -4.6 Units

Total Unit Based Record (29-18.7-.2) +10.1 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (60.54%)

No time for write-ups this morning, but below are today’s NFL picks. Nothing above a 2 Unit Pick this week. The lines are tight, and this is far from the best NFL card we will see this season. Take it easy today and enjoy the football. Good luck!

Rams +9 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Browns +14 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Falcons +1.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Lions +10 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Chiefs +4.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Raiders +7 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (15-13-1) +9.7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-0) +8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (3-3) -.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (6-2-1) +7.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (4-8) -4.8 Units

Total Unit Based Record (33-23.1-.2) +9.7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (58.61%)

No time for write-ups this week, but I wish everyone good luck! Enjoy the NFL action!

Browns +13 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Steelers -3 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Seahawks -7 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (17-14-1) +12.6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-0) +8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-3) +2.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (6-2-1) +7.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (5-9) -4.9 Units

Total Unit Based Record (37-24.2-.2) +12.6 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (60.26%)

Giants +3.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit): The Giants will have Romo running for his life tonight. The Giants have logged 21 sacks this season, and opposing quarterbacks have averaged a mere 68.21 quarterback rating. On offense, the Giants will likely try to dominate this Cowboys defense on the ground. The giants are averaging an impressive 4.67 yards per rush, while the Cowboys are allowing teams to average 4.24 yards per rush. Manning will likely see favorable 3rd down yardage due to the Giants running game, which will keep the Cowboys on their heels and allow the Giants to win the time of possession battle (my prediction: 32 minutes Giants to 28 minutes Cowboys). My system has the Giants at -2.5 with a total of 48. Good luck and enjoy this UPSET ALERT!

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (18-14-1) +13.6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-0) +8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-3) +2.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (6-2-1) +7.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (6-9) -3.9 Units

Total Unit Based Record (38-24.2-.2) +13.6 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (60.90%)

Happy Halloween! Today, we only have three picks. The NFL lines are tight this season. We just have to take the value that is out there and run with it. Good luck and enjoy the NFL action!

Chiefs -7 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Titans +4.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Steelers +1 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (18-17-1) +10.3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-0) +8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-3) +2.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (6-2-1) +7.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (6-12) -7.2 Units

Total Unit Based Record (38-27.5-.2) +10.3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (57.84%)

Cowboys +7 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Lions +6 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Seahawks +7.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Bucs +10 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Colts +3 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Raiders +1 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (22-19-1) +9.8 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-0) +8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-4) -1.2 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (7-3-1) +7.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (9-12) -4.2 Units

Total Unit Based Record (43-33-.2) +9.8 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (56.43%)

We had a great day yesterday, and I am expecting more of the same today in the NFL. Good luck!!

Panthers +7 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Cowboys +11.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Titans +1 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Texans +1 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Chiefs -1 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (23-23-1) +5.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-0) +8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-5) -4.5 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (8-3-1) +9.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (9-15) -7.5 Units

Total Unit Based Record (45-39.6-.2) +5.2 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (53.07%)

Bears +1.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit): According to my system, the wrong team is favored to win tonight’s game. My one fear is that the Dolphin’s convert 45.7% of their 3rd down attempts. Fortunately, we have Thigpen at the helm tonight, and I fully expect this Bear’s defense to keep him guessing. Per my ratings, the Bear’s have the 2nd most effective defense in the NFL, and opposing quarterbacks have an average rating of just 65.62 when they face these “Monsters of the Midway.” My system has the Bears winning this game by the score of 21-17 despite allowing Miami to outgain them by more than 40 total yards of offense. Good luck and enjoy this UPSET ALERT!

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (24-23-1) +6.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-0) +8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-5) -4.5 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (8-3-1) +9.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (10-15) -6.5 Units

Total Unit Based Record (46-39.6-.2) +6.2 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (53.61%)

Yesterday was ugly. We went 3-9 in college football and need to bounce back in a big way today. My system has 8 NFL picks that have a high probability of hitting. Good luck and enjoy today’s NFL action!

Lions +6 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS at home this season, and my system has the fair value line for this game at Cowboys +2.5. Don’t worry about the fact that the Lions will be starting Hill today, and they lost to the Bills last Sunday. Per my ratings, the Cowboys’ defense ranks 30th in effectiveness, and they allow opposing teams to an average quarterback rating of 103.65. Hill should be able to settle into a groove today and pull off the “upset.” Thus, I am putting the Cowboys on UPSET ALERT, and predicting that the Lions win by the score of 26-23.

Seahawks +11 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Packers/Vikings Under 45 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Rams +3 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Giants +3 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Browns +1 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Raiders +7.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Bucs +3.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (26-29-1) -4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-0) +8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-7) -11.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (9-5-1) +6.8 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (11-17) -7.7 Units

Total Unit Based Record (49-52.8-.2) -4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (48.04%)

Happy Thanksgiving to all that read this thread! Good luck and please enjoy this time with family and friends! Maybe you can even watch a little NFL action with the family. Just a thought.

Lions +6.5 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): The Lions are the best two win team in the NFL. Injuries and bad breaks have plagued this team all season. Thanksgiving will provide this Lions team with a little time in the spotlight, and I expect to see them take full advantage of this opportunity. The Patriot’s have the most efficient offense in the NFL, but their defense is shaky. The Patriot’s defense allows opponents to convert 50.7% of their 3rd down attempts. Not to mention the fact that opposing quarterbacks have an average quarterback rating of 93.6. These stats bode well for a Lion’s offense that is ranked 6th in offensive efficiency (per my ratings). Obviously, my number one concern is whether or not the Lion’s defense can slow down Brady. In my opinion, the key to this game will be the Lion’s ability to rush the passer. Thus far, the Lion’s defense has forced 27 sacks. If they can do this tomorrow, we may see the Lions pick up their third win this season. My system has the fair value line for this game at Lions -1. Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving!

Saints -3.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Bengals +9 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (26-32-1) -10.6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-1) +3.6 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-7) -11.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (9-5-1) +6.8 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (11-19) -9.9 Units

Total Unit Based Record (49-59.4-.2) -10.6 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (45.12%)

Titans +6 (Risking 5.5 Units to Win 5 Units): The Underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings between these two teams. Plus, the Titans have the edge on offense and defense in this matchup. Per my ratings, the Titans have the 2nd most efficient offense and the 4th most effective defense in the NFL. This may leave you scratching your head, but statistically speaking, the Titans are the best .500 team in the NFL. The Titans have question marks at quarterback, but what better team to face than the Texans. The Texans have allowed opposing quarterbacks to have an average quarterback rating of 107.71. It may not matter who is throwing the ball for the Titans. My system has the fair value line for this game at Titans -6. Good luck and enjoy this UPSET ALERT!

Packers/Falcons Under 47.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Bucs +7.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (28-33-1) -13.1 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-1) +3.6 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-7) -11.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (10-5-1) +8.8 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (12-19) -8.9 Units

Total Unit Based Record (52-64.9-.2) -13.1 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (44.41%)

Below are my Week 13 NFL Picks:

Jets +3.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Bills +5.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Raiders +13 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Browns +5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (30-35-1) -15.6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (2-1) +3.6 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-8) -14.4 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (11-6-1) +8.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (13-19) -7.9 Units

Total Unit Based Record (55-70.4-.2) -15.6 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (43.79%)

Tomorrow's picks are posted below:

Packers +14 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units)

Redskins +7 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Jets/Steelers Over 35.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Cardinals +2.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (33-36-1) -8.7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (3-1) +7.6 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-8) -14.4 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (13-6-1) +12.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (13-20) -9 Units

Total Unit Based Record (63-71.5-.2) -8.7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (46.77%)

Below are today's picks:

Vikings +13.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Redskins +7 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Jets/Bears Over 36 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Vikings/Eagles Over 37 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

[The Knuckleballer]

Both picks for the Vikings/Eagles game are cancelled due to inclement weather. Please check back later for updated picks on this game. Good luck, and I hope you enjoyed the 2-0 day!