NFL Week One Discussion

**Underdog88** · 09-05-2010, 05:47 PM

7 home dogs.... wow.

No faves over 1 touchdown.

Team plays that stick out to me at first glance

Tampa Bay-1.5

Buffalo+3

Texans ML

Rams+4

Seahawks+3

To me these lines are all based on hype and perception. Cleveland won 2 road games last season. The Dolphins are all hyped up but the Bills rarely lose at home to them. The Texans never can beat the Colts, so why is this such a short line? The Rams got better, did Arizona? I think not. SF again I think is overhyped, though I am not sold on the Hawks.

**Underdog88** · 09-05-2010, 05:57 PM

possible over plays

Cincy/NE o44- I think both teams will have improved offenses, and to me it's likely both can get over 20 points. Would lean towards Cincy as a live dog, but I do think there could be value in the over. I'm not sold on the Pats D as anything special at all, and I think the Bengals can establish the run there.

Detroit/Chicago o43- both meetings last season totaled over 60 pts, and the Lions offense got better in the offseason. Both teams had bad secondaries last season, so I think the big play potential is there. Last season Detroit allowed 35 passing tds, while the Bears allowed 29.

Those are my fave 2. I think a case could be made for GB/Philly, but at the same time it's inflated. I don't like the Vikings/Saints over, though I would expect many to be on that side

**DukiesBaby** · 09-05-2010, 07:43 PM

Oakland 6.5 Tennessee -6.5 41

Detroit 6.0 Chicago -6.0 43

Green Bay -3.0 Philadelphia 3 47

San Francisco -3.0 Seattle 3 38

Indianapolis -2.0 Houston 2 47

The lines in bold make me say wtf?

oakland detroit both on the road less than td underdogs 1 with no offense and other with no defense?

Green bay is that good they are worthy of being favs in philly?

San fran going to loudest stadium in football in the pacific northwest with alex smith is automatic -3?

Colts favored by less than a fg, can the texans beat the colts? who just get better with age....

i dunno i just dont understand why these lines are the way they are, but maybe thats why i get pounded usually in first 2 weeks of football season....:puke:

**DukiesBaby** · 09-05-2010, 07:59 PM

Games i like...

St Louis +4 New Look Rams, Proclaimed Stud QB, home opener, Whole team just carries the we are getting better confidence.... arizona on other hand, D Anderson over matt lionheart? this is your genius plan to get u back to top of nfc west? LoL cleveland cant find a role for anderson, i dont think cardinals are gonna after too long...

Cleveland +1.5 I am buying on the cleveland browns this season, and selling on the Tampa Bay Crapo'neers ... IMO Tampa might just be the worst team in football... Cleveland like st louis to me has some bright future days ahead of them...:thumbs:

Pittsburgh +2 i dont care who quarterbacks for Steelers with that Defense and a good running game and solid wr's and solid te @ home this team is gonna win vs atlanta.

Over 44 NE/CINCI This might be a sucker play but with injuries to bengals secondary, and new england secondary questionable.... both teams with really good qb's and wr core i could see a 30+ score each....

**Underdog88** · 09-05-2010, 08:28 PM

Originally posted by DukiesBaby

Cleveland +1.5 I am buying on the cleveland browns this season, and selling on the Tampa Bay Crapo'neers ... IMO Tampa might just be the worst team in football... Cleveland like st louis to me has some bright future days ahead of them...:thumbs:

What do you see that makes you think the Browns are better than the Bucs? Just curious. I saw the Browns just took Rogers off the pup list so he may play, but that defense on the road is a concern. I think the Bucs have the better defense and are at home vs a team that has had trouble stopping the run...

**gadfly36** · 09-06-2010, 04:16 PM

I know I'm a homer here but this is one of the few games I think the Bucs can win. They are at home and their defense can be a game saver, if the offense can score 17 points they can win. Mike Williams is a game changer and Freeman appparently can play with a broken thumb. If not both backup QBs looked good in the preseason. Just my opinion.

**DukiesBaby** · 09-06-2010, 05:45 PM

Well i like jake delhome as their QB, With Colt McCoy as your back up QB and future franchise QB, i think they have a very young team, and that young team is full of college talent, i understand alot of these players arent the biggest of names, but they are doing a very good job of piecing things together there, hardesty is a great pickup for future, i think highly on masaqui, and the browns defense is very underrated.

living in las vegas has kinda opened my mind up to watching more of the non popular teams,
like on sundays when i goto the casino all i see is all the wagering being thrown on Dallas, Minnesota, Green Bay, Indy, Pittsburgh, Patriots, and the fading of the lions browns and rams....

i dont think the browns are by any means at the level to compete with the ravens colts and steelers, but i do think they are a winning team vs at least half the league...

i would never try to sway anyone to my pick, everyone has gut feelings, strong opinions, and researched knowledge...

Just in my opinion, from watching alot of browns, lions, rams, bills games, and looking for signs of a team that could be getting better, i think the browns are making the right moves to be a force in their division in the coming years ahead, and they have Mike Genius Hologram....

im an underdog kinda guy so maybe part of me wants to see these teams make a come back, but i think the browns are in best position out of the bad teams to make a move up in the long run, short term as in right now, the rams look like the bad team to make a instant move due to a terrible division....

I agree with gads about tampa's defense is better but if this is a low scoring game i can see delhome being able to get 2 td's... he is familiar playing against tampa, and josh freeman throwing to m williams r borwn s straughter, doesnt seem like a winning combination, no experience, and delhome i think is they key difference in this match up...

with that being said watch delhome throw 2 picks for td's and make me look stupid for backing him... i hope he comes out with the something to prove attitude that he can still play...

**FlyersFan** · 09-06-2010, 11:52 PM

i have never had the luck that a lot of you have had in the NFL wagering arena.....luck is probably a bad word but you get the drift....lol....my sports have always been CFB, CBB, College baseball/softball and some hockey........but i will toss in my 2 cents as i think it's important to keep the discussion threads going. I really wish we had the same thing in CFB but everytime i try one it dies.

CIN/NEP..........already played it Over44 and part of a teaser at Over37. Basically I concur with what the Udognflmaster said in his write up.

CHI/DET Over43..........these games seem to be shootouts or duds and I like the former. Good weather in CHI and maybe the most underrated and least talked about WR group is the Bears. Armashadoo (whatever) and Knox I think will both have very solid seasons and Cutler will get them the ball, and probably the Lions the ball as well. Flip side, the Bears D isn't the 85 bears D and I think the Lions can muster something in the low 20's. Kind of tough to know exactly what you're going to get, though, as they were very pedestrian and struggled in Pre-season (yes i know it is preseason). Almost a play against an awful Lions D IMO that couldn't stop anyone....I mean crappy jake delinterception was 20 of 25 against them in the preseason. Bears 31- Lions-20

Teaser of the week: these I actually do well on.....LOL....

CIN/NEP Over37 & STL +11...............interesting thing about the AZ/STL game is I expect a lot of running the football from both teams which makes +11 a lot of points. Steven Jackson supposedly is fit and wants to be the man. You have a rookie QB starting his first game minus his best WR out for the year. On the flip side you have mistake prone Anderson minus Bolid who is gone....and a 2 headed running game that they want to feature with Hightower (with hooks and maloney leading the way) and Wells. I expect conservative game plans from both teams, especially STL. AZ will throw, but i expect much more balance than they had under Warner when they were slinging the ball all over the field.

I personally think this week is kind of hard because there are a lot of new variables with teams. For instance, Kolb in Philadelphia.......McNabb in Washington.....AZ loses Warner and bolid and brings in Anderson the human turnover......Rams with a rookie QB.....PIT minus Rothlesmolester...... and not really sure what to base a lot of these plays on.

Anyhow my worfffless 2 cents for the week.....and be sure to check out all my selections in the other forums that i have up.......:laughing:....man is that gay to post that in your thread.

**FlyersFan** · 09-06-2010, 11:58 PM

also kind of like SEA (1H)....SEA is always one of the toughest places to play in the league and I expect a spirited effort from the seachickens in Caroll's first game for at least a half. I don't trust them over the course of the game especially with Crappleback throwing the ball.

**Stifler's Mom** · 09-07-2010, 08:08 AM

Discussion thread = good.

A few things I thought I'd add. First of all, I was slightly surprised to see the Bungholes called a live dog at NE. That made me think....and I came to the conclusion that yea, why wouldn't NE be a bigger fave if they were a shoe in to win that game? I mean it's not like people won't back them at a higher number. Yeah, it's a new year, but probably the same old public who loves Brady/Moss/Bellicheat I'm guessing and thinks they're supermen who can win every game by 20+ at will. You might just be right about that one Udog...

I think Pittsburgh takes down Atlanta. Too much hype about Ben there, and it seems almost everyone is jumping on the Falcons as a road fave against a team who has a ton to prove/play for, and has a historically strong home field advantage, a hard nosed defense with their leader back, and (hopefully) an improved running game from last year. Scrambling QB's can be a strange added dimension too that NFL defenses don't see a ton of, and as long as Dixon doesn't implode and lose it on his own, I think the Steelers have a great shot to win that one.

Is Jacksonville going to have anything at all this year? They have played most teams tough even when they aren't very good in the past, and I think Denver is as overhyped and as overrated of a team as you'll see this year in the NFL. I strongly dislike -2.5 faves though....

Which brings me to Indy/Houston. Indy to me looked weak in preseason....even when they had their first stringers in. Manning (imo) pretty much carried an Indy team with a lot of glaring weaknesses on his shoulders all the way to the SB last year, and (also imo) this is quite possibly the year they take a step back. Line is begging for (and getting) Indy money, as people are betting them like it's still 2006 or 2007 here, but that's probably not the reality.

Lots of hype surrounding Miami. Lets see if they can live up to it. Most teams don't...

Oakland getting under a TD at Tennessee (or on the road anywhere for that matter)? Seriously? +6.5 road dogs are usually a strong play, but can the Raiderettes be trusted to win outright here, as would normally be the case using "pick the winner"? Well, turnover machine J-Marcus Russell IS gone.....

For me, the WTF line of the week is GB @ Philly. Why is GB -3 @ Philly in the first place? This line is tough to read imo. IS GB THAT good to be favored at Philly, or is Philly THAT bad to be a home dog period? Nah, probably just another over reaction to a QB change making the public down on Philly and of course they are up on Rogers/GB (and probably rightly so, as they are by every indication a quality team and serious contender). Philly is a tough place to play though, and they will definitely come out with some serious motivation to prove they can win without McNabb, and winning/losing is usually the result of more than 1 guy....unless of course your QB is 5 picks per game Jay Cutler or the previously mentioned J-Marcus Russell, who seem to be just fine at losing games single handedly. Might be the "stay away and watch game of the week" as it could probably easily go either way quite easily.

Like U-dog, I'm not sold on SF as a road fave @ Seattle either, although just seeing SF as a road fave makes me think they are worthy of some respect here, and Singletary has them improving all the time, while Pete Carroll is nothing but a failed NFL coach who did well with a stacked team at USC against basically teams with lesser talent. Could Joe Pub be right here?

Another line I find strange is NYJ -2. Why isnt this Jets -3.5? Anyone? Public loves the Raisins, so maybe that's why....but still, I find the line to be suspiciously low and asking for Jets money, even if it's not getting it (yet). Public could be right here, as the Jets may have overachieved last season....plus is Beavis in game shape?

Oh, and imho the pathetic Chiefs have a very good shot to win outright on MNF game #2.

This is what stood out to me at first glance this morning....

**Stifler's Mom** · 09-07-2010, 08:23 AM

Oh, i forgot STL +4. While dropping Matt Leinart = good imo (i said since his college days that i thought he would be a garbage NFL QB), something tells me Derek Anderson probably isn't the answer for Arizona or anyone else, although it does worry me that people are becoming too quickly interested in STL/Bradford just due to preseason performance, and are quickly overlooking the fact that he did alot of his damage against guys who are no longer under contract with an NFL team....or are happy as hell to be making the league minimum to be running around on special teams....and that once the regular season lights come on, things are much more difficult. They may be a decent play here, as road wins are tough to come by in the NFL, especially for mediocre teams, but imo are still a massive fade on the road and/or against quality teams this year, as they will still experience definite road struggles and their share of blowout losses this year when massively over matched in talent/experience. There seems to be a pretty strong buzz about them too, which will only increase if they win (or even cover) this game, and imo shave a few points off their lines here and there, as many find first impressions tough to get out of their heads.

**daft_picks** · 09-07-2010, 05:18 PM

Great to be back posting here and seeing the forums active, I love this time of year! The first week's card is scary, the one thing I immediately bet has been mentioned here several times Det/Chi OVER 43. To me that most likely goes way over or possibly under if they come out flat. Wouldn't be surprised to see a defensive score either, big game for both teams.

Others tossed around here are interesting, I do even like Cleveland but do I really want to be putting money on the browns? I like the Titans -6 obviously, line has been dropping and I think we win that game so it's a pick the winner situation. Our offense is going to be nasty, that game could easily go OVER 40.5 cause both D's are question marks. Also Boys/Skins O/U is @ 40, seems so low. Part of me likes playing for points the first few weeks because I really have no idea how a lot of these teams matchup. Cowboys @ -3.5 seem too easy...

Still letting it swirl around, have no clue who wins this Thursday but I lean Saints. Mostly I am just excited for the season to be here again!

**Underdog88** · 09-08-2010, 10:35 AM

Great to see you around adding to the discussion Stif! :beerbang:

Got a couple additions/responses to some stuff you posted so here we go

Originally posted by Stifler's Mom

Oakland getting under a TD at Tennessee (or on the road anywhere for that matter)? Seriously? +6.5 road dogs are usually a strong play, but can the Raiderettes be trusted to win outright here, as would normally be the case using "pick the winner"? Well, turnover machine J-Marcus Russell IS gone.....

I absolutely do not trust Oakland here. Jamarcus is gone but imo the upgrade is minimal with Jason Campbell. They are without power run game in Bush and have to rely on streaky McFadden to generate run vs the Titans. I think the Titans still struggle this season vs top passing teams, but do the Raiders fit into that criteria? I think the other side of the ball is where it gets ugly...

Oakland vs a top tier run game. Last season they only won two games when the opposing team rushed for 150+. KC rushed for 173 but had 2 turnovers, and the Bengals ran for 177 but had 4 tos. The other teams that ran well vs them go as follows, with margin of victory as well

Denver rushed for 215- won by 20

Giants rushed for 220- won by 37

Jets rushed for 316- won by 38

Dallas rushed for 195- won by 17

Cleveland rushed for 164- won by 14

Ravens rushed for 240- won by 8

No way can anyone tell me the defense has improved enough to where they can keep a top run game from getting 150+ especially in the home opener. Another key is that Tenn opened the season losing 6 straight last season, something that probably isn't lost on the staff . I would think they will look to make a statement here and put away the Raiders quickly, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Johnson and Ringer both get over 100 yards...

Strong lean on the Titans-pts and also thinking about the Titans team total over:thumbs:

**Underdog88** · 09-08-2010, 10:40 AM

also have to add that given the current total and spread, the Titans team total should come out @ 23.5, but would likely be juiced. 3 touches and a fg gets the W- may like that more than the spread play!

Curious to see what Horfin has to say about this one....

NFL Week One Discussion