***NFL Week One Discussion***

[Underdog88]

I think Pittsburgh takes down Atlanta. Too much hype about Ben there, and it seems almost everyone is jumping on the Falcons as a road fave against a team who has a ton to prove/play for, and has a historically strong home field advantage, a hard nosed defense with their leader back, and (hopefully) an improved running game from last year. Scrambling QB's can be a strange added dimension too that NFL defenses don't see a ton of, and as long as Dixon doesn't implode and lose it on his own, I think the Steelers have a great shot to win that one.
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Am I seeing Atlanta favored right now? Pretty strong move that I'm sure has to do with the announcement of Dixon starting (whom I much prefer over Leftwich). Tough call here for me, do the linesmakers really have that much faith in Atlanta on the road (because they definitely didn't impress last season), or are they just fgeeding into the perception of the Steelers without Big Ben? Still mulling it over.

[Underdog88]

First of all, I was slightly surprised to see the Bungholes called a live dog at NE. That made me think....and I came to the conclusion that yea, why wouldn't NE be a bigger fave if they were a shoe in to win that game? I mean it's not like people won't back them at a higher number. Yeah, it's a new year, but probably the same old public who loves Brady/Moss/Bellicheat I'm guessing and thinks they're supermen who can win every game by 20+ at will. You might just be right about that one Udog...

I just think that the Bengals have a good enough pass defense to make some plays on the Patriots, and a strong run D (not like NE runs the ball effectively anyway). This Pats D really doesn't scare me anymore, and the Bengals offense got stronger in the offseason. Many will point to the addition of TO in the passing game, but I think te Gresham could be a key working off the run game. Cincy is a run first team, which brings up my biggest concern about backing them here. They have no fullback! Vakapuna was placed on ir, and Brian Leonard will miss the game because of a foot injury. I guess they will look to use a te as a fullback, which they did effectively late last season with Coats. Still a concern....

[Underdog88]

Agree about the GB/Philly game, line I believe opened at 1.5 and has risen since. One of those games where I think it could go either way, and I'm starting to warm up to an over play. Given GB road totals and Philly's home totals last season, this looks to be a fair number and not at all inflated like I had previously thought. Philly is coming in underrated because of Donovan leaving, but look at the weapons in the passing game (I think Maclin could be a beast this season). Asking both teams to get to 24 is not such a tall order.

[birdsfan5]

Agree about the GB/Philly game, line I believe opened at 1.5 and has risen since. One of those games where I think it could go either way, and I'm starting to warm up to an over play. Given GB road totals and Philly's home totals last season, this looks to be a fair number and not at all inflated like I had previously thought. Philly is coming in underrated because of Donovan leaving, but look at the weapons in the passing game (I think Maclin could be a beast this season). Asking both teams to get to 24 is not such a tall order.

The Eagles are going to get killed. The Oline is a joke, and the defense will be very weak this year. IMO Packers by 17+

[Daws1089]

Agreed birdsfan. They have all sorts of problems. Look at how laughable the secondary is. Stew Bradley off the ACL can't possibly be ready to go fully healed.

Offense will have major issues scoring tds in the red zone, they do every year. Jackson will have a harder time getting open too with with GB's physical corners.


The Bills/Dolphins game has to be the most messed up line. I like Buffalo because this line is just flat out off. Many people including myself are pegging Buffalo to be one of the worst teams this year, but I can't ignore this line. Miami could have problems offensively, specifically Marshall getting used to Henne and vise versa. I think the Bills will surprise people this year as strange as that sounds.

I'm leaning on Minnesota +5.5 for thursday. I mean has anyone even giving them a chance in this game? These two teams are very similar to last year's NFC championship game except no sharper for NO and no Rice for MINN among some other small changes, but MINN had that game. Even with 5 turnovers they still only lost in OT. NO defense I think is piss poor this year. Can't rely on to's this year. Vilma is playing hurt, no Sharper who makes the entire secondary better, and the pressure of performing on a night where their super bowl banner will be unveiled. I think 5.5 is a nice number to get with MINN. What do you guys think?

[Underdog88]

The Bills/Dolphins game has to be the most messed up line. I like Buffalo because this line is just flat out off. Many people including myself are pegging Buffalo to be one of the worst teams this year, but I can't ignore this line. Miami could have problems offensively, specifically Marshall getting used to Henne and vise versa. I think the Bills will surprise people this year as strange as that sounds.

I've been talking quite a bit with friends who seem to think the Billa will win 4 games tops, and I think they are better than people are giving them credit for. How on earth can they be worse than last season when they have a healthy o-line, another playmaker offensively, and (hopefully) some decent additions defensively. Is Miami really going to be good this season? Maybe, but that defense really doesn't strike fear in my heart. I think the line is right but the Bills win.

[FlyersFan]

Have a question...the Raiders run D has been beyond abysmal of late and Tennessee has one of the best backs in the NFL IMO. Is the Raiders run D any better? If so I kind of lean under here.....if not I don't see how anyone could back the Raiders if they can't stop the run here. Brown may run for 300 yards in the opener if that's the case.

[bookiekilla]

Brown may run for 300 yards in the opener if that's the case.

:dunno:

[FlyersFan]

:dunno:

meant chris johnson......

[Q-Unit]

I think you left out the Chargers at Chiefs, Underdog.

I like the Chiefs here lol, think the Chargers will miss Vincent Jackson more than they realize, and their D is name brand, but can be had IMO.

classic divisional rivalry game, and the Chiefs have some young talent coming together on D.

Cassel is a big ? mark, as he did very well filling in for Brady TWO YEARS ago, but he got hurt too early last year for us to really evaluate him.

:beerbang:

[Daws1089]

No one is really talking about the Skins in Week 1. If the line stays at +3.5 I'll bite. Mcnabb will help that offense hands down as will shanahan. My worry is that DAL just knows how to prepare for McNabb and they will frustrate him. But I can see WASH taking this game 20-17.

[Guest]

The Eagles are going to get killed. The Oline is a joke, and the defense will be very weak this year. IMO Packers by 17+

If the Eagles o-line is a joke, what is GB's? Even with a gimpy Jamaal Jackson I'm taking Philly's all day. Philly D-line underrated IMHO. I could see Graham and Cole having huge days.

[Canyonero]

I think you left out the Chargers at Chiefs, Underdog.

I like the Chiefs here lol, think the Chargers will miss Vincent Jackson more than they realize, and their D is name brand, but can be had IMO.

classic divisional rivalry game, and the Chiefs have some young talent coming together on D.

Cassel is a big ? mark, as he did very well filling in for Brady TWO YEARS ago, but he got hurt too early last year for us to really evaluate him.

:beerbang:

Hell no. Sure it will be hard, it's a divisional game and Chiefs have a really important home field advantage, first game of the season and the fans are gonna give their all. Chargers won't steamroll over the Chiefs, but even if the Chargers D is not that convincing the offense makes up for all that. All the WRs compliment each other, there's Gates - Rivers has a lot of good options. Mathews will be a big name this year. Chargers are gonna win this by at least 3 points.

[NittanyLions94]

I'm liking the Vikings tonight. Looking back at that game last year(I know, new year, but it's not a bad thing to peek at), Minnesota dominated the game for the most part and AP screwed them pretty good laying the ball on the ground. Betting on Minnesota is betting on them holding on to the football, which AP does not do very well. But I think that defense is enough to slow the Saints run game and force them in to obvious passing situations. Brees is as accurate as they come, but if you are throwing too much on that defense then you are allowing them to turn Jared Allen loose. Minnesota outgained them by nearly double, and almost rolled up 500 yds of offense on them. The Vikes have a talent advantage in the front 7 as well as at RB, and that's where I think Minnesota leans to get this one.

Other games:

-Loving Pittsburgh at home. Dixon had no time to prepare for that game in Baltimore last year, and actually didn't take a single snap all week in practice. This time he knows he's the man coming in and is a part of the game planning process. There was a huge contingency that wanted Dixon all along anyway. The defense is healthy again and has added some needed depth as well. The OL scares the hell out of my in this one, but I think Dixon can find some open guys and move the ball enough to keep the defense out of some short fields. I would expect this to be pretty low scoring, but Pittsburgh does very well at home early in the year.

-Colts -2. Sucker bet of the year? Peyton Manning is the king of covering short road numbers, and he may have his best defense in a long time in Indy. Houston is a hot pick coming in to the year, but can they keep Peyton out of the end zone?

-Jags -2.5. I expect Denver to be one of the lesser teams in the NFL this year, and don't see them winning an early road game. They not only lost Brandon Marshall, but Dumerville, Sheffler, and a few others are not going to be out there in this one. Kyle Orton with no weapons on the road and a slightly hobbled Knowshon Moreno? If MJD is healthy on Sunday then I think I'm going to side with those guys.

-Jets/Ravens Under 36. I wasn't impressed one bit by the Jets' offense last year, and it has done nothing to step forward this year(at least early) IMO. No Santonio Holmes early on, 1400+ yard rusher now down in KC, Faneca out of town. I'm not buying what the Jets are selling this year with "dream team" talk and things like that. Braylon Edwards had that one good year, but other than that, is he really the guy you want as your top threat? I know it's a banged up Ravens' secondary, but they've patched it together before. That front 7 still has something in the tank, IMO.

Back from a hiatus, had the FF draft with some guys and figured I'd come back and let you all fade me again. At least to start the year until I embarrass myself, lol.

GL to everyone, and as always, great info in here.

[Underdog88]

I think you left out the Chargers at Chiefs, Underdog.

I haven't gotten around to looking that hard at it, but I certainly think a case can be made for the divisional homedog. Prob the right move to let an aging LT go, but everyone has anointed Matthews as god and he's still a rookie. No way is Floyd in the same level as Vincent Jackson. I think it could take a couple games for this offense to gel. The Chiefs have added to DL and OL, and could have a legit run game.