Super Bowl Early Line Discussion

[DukiesBaby]

i still hate the saints, but nfl is all about the saints winning this year....

Best bet IMO has to be points over, over 55? 28-28 that just is like free donoughts at crispy cream when the red light turns on, im gonna grab my doughnut at 55!



Good luck everyone

wont bet sides in superbowl as i will be rooting for Colts to destroy the AINTS:beerbang:

[Stifler's Mom]

I still stand by SIA as the best dog book out there, as you don't have to be "tagged" as a "favorites" player to catch a good dog line, and they don't make you pay mass juice...and often times you can get as good of a line as anywhere AND reduced juice. They are +6 -105 right now for the Saints.

I think everyone and their immediate family is thinking Indy and the unstoppable Manning theory here. Why the 3.5 opener then? If this was so obviously advantage Indy, why not a -7 or so to open? I think you guys are selling the Saints way short, and are way too high on Indy. JMO

[Larry]

Im not selling the Saints short at all. Im sure they're gonna put up their share of points, I just dont see how they're gonna stop the Indy offense.

[FlyersFan]

im not selling NO short either. Personally, i think this site has sold the Colts short all year. Nothing but excuses as to why they keep winning and how they shouldn't. Played 2 bad offenses now is the one i've been seeing in the playoffs. I guess i have a chip on my shoulder for the colts...lol...Peyton just basically took apart the best defense in football.....and the Jets team that everyone had winning last week.

I have no clue who wins. I honestly think this is a tough superbowl to predict because you can make arguments for both teams and there isn't a huge underdog like in a couple of years past perception wise. In the end i think Indy is the better team but not by much.

And NO was outgained by almost 200 yards and if not for a whole host of turnovers, a couple of VERY questionable calls in overtime.....wouldn't even be playing today.

Just have a really really hard time going against Peyton knowing he is facing a defense that is really average at best.

But GL to those on either side...:thumbs:

[Stifler's Mom]

The Colts have won close all year, because of Peyton's greatness and ability to get it done when it counts. That doesn't cover spreads though, and plenty of teams have slowed and frustrated him at times. And that's just what the Saints try to do, frustrate teams and force turnovers.

As far as the playoff games, the Jets were unable to keep up once they fell behind, and it was their undoing. Baltimore was just plain average this year, and sucked a big one on the road, so the Colts hammering them was no shock at all, but imho handicapping this game on the premise of what happened last week, or in the last 2 weeks, is a big mistake, if anyone is doing so....and I know people are, cause I've heard and seen alot of the reasoning usual public overreaction reasoning in that "How are the Saints gonna stop Indy if the Jets and their #1 defense couldn't", and "the Saints are lucky to even be here and don't deserve it". Crap like that. Forgetting that the Saints were also 13-0 at one point and looked unstoppable and indestructible. Forgetting they played a hard nosed team in the Vikings that could actually throw AND pass AND play defense, and still did come out on top, and just seeing it as "lucky to win". Forgetting that the Saints are a complete and total opposite of the Jets and Ravens, presenting a completely different challenge for Indy/Manning to deal with on both sides of the ball. Indy's 31st ranked run defense looked pretty good when there was no real solid passing game to go along with the run, and credit them for that, but when the Saints have those large wideouts and a healthy Jeremy Shockey running all over the secondary, I seriously doubt they will be "stacking the box" to stuff the run like they had the ability to do against the Jets, and that the Saints more than likely have every much of an ability to shred the Colts D as Manning does the Saints D. Forgetting it's the Saints who are currently getting 6 huge points, and I'm talking with the current +6 when I talk about the game here, not who I think will win outright. I think this is going to be a great game and down to the wire, and that the +6 points could quite possibly be huge, considering a) Indy/Manning's habit of winning games late this year and b) the Saints obvious ability to put a TD up in no time and slide in the backdoor, even if they are behind late.

Most numbers on paper actually do point to the Saints winning this outright from the way I look at games, but there is always the Manning factor, and that is something I don't think anyone can dispute, nor would I ever try to, and a factor that should scare anyone, because he probably really is the best all around QB to ever play the game, and will probably be noted as such once it's all said and done for his career....hence the +6 points, 4 of which I believe are justified....and all of which I think certainly have a chance to come into play, as I really see no reason Indy should blow the Saints out unless the Saints beat themselves with turnovers, which could happen to anyone.

In any case, I just hope it's a good game. Both teams are great ones, and to me seeing either one win would be just fine. The Saints is a great story, and my daughter is a big Colts fan, so if they win then that's great too. She will have gotten to see twice in her almost 11 years already what I probably never will get to....my team win a championship....being a Bills, Clippers, and (formerly) and Expos fan, lol, and not giving a crap about any one particular team in hockey.

[Daws1089]

Well said Stifler's mom. Well said.

[Q-Unit]

I agree that capping only the last 2 weeks is a mistake, but recent history has to be taken into consideration AND the whole season (albeit to a lesser extent).

The Colts aren't the only teams who squeaked by teams all year, the Saints had their share of comebacks and close wins (right before their Dallas loss) versus:

Atlanta
Washington
St. Louis

2 of those 3 teams aren't exactly juggernauts, and the fact they lost SU trying to a bad Tampa Bay Buccaneers team.

The Colts have gotten it done, with a rash of injuries, and a new rookie coach (albeit same system in place, same philosophy). 2 MORE weeks off for the SB after that bye week, to prepare, get healthy, etc...

- the main reason (AND given my lack of success, the reason this play will lose) is that the Colts could be tied, or down a point with 2 minutes left, and Manning will drive them down the field for a TD to cover.

- That last one might be improbable as I do fear that scenario unfolding with a game winning FG as we've seen too many times.

- But I have seen too many times, other scenarios where the Colts are down 3-7 points in the middle of the 4th quarter, only to tie the game, stop the opponent, and get that last drive to cap the spread.

This should be a GREAT game, and I am definitely looking forward to it, I just still lean to Colts at this point. Not selling Saints short, just like the Colts in this spot.

[recovering77]

I was really disappointed when Favre threw that INT, cuz I knew New Orleans was going to win at that point.

New Orleans is a talented squad, but they're defense is severely overrated. Yes they cause turnovers, but any decent qb can abuse that defense. Peyton Manning will pick them apart.

That is what I initially thought. Apparently I'm not the only one in the world that thinks Indy rolls. So I thought closer. I watched the media that is hyping up Peyton Manning to be the best QB ever, replaying the last meeting between these two teams where Manning destroyed Drew Brees' Saints 31-10.

Then I realized, I have no choice but to take New Orleans in this situation. Crowning Peyton Manning as the best ever, and New Orleans not only lucky, but just happy to be here.

One trend I realized is that repeat SB champions never cover their second super bowl. New England did not cover their second super bowl win. Pittsburgh -6.5/7 first SB, cover. Last year Pitt -6.5/7, NO COVER. I don't remember the line for Indy/Chi, but that doesn't matter much to me.

I see a back and forth game where Peyton Manning has a career defining drive down 3 points, and scores the game winning td to win by 4. People are forgetting that Indy has been in close games all year long. They have forgotten because the last two haven't even been close.

New Orleans plus the points :thumbs:

[FlyersFan]

you know the interesting thing is that i see a lot of people just saying "saints" and i really haven't seen a good argument as to why the saints from a matchup standpoint and i would be curious to hear that actually.

also, stif....i guess i am still thinking the pick the winner thing...do you throw that out the window here?

I have decided not to get involved in the game from a gambling standpoint but it makes for interesting discussion which is why i keep jumping in.

One question mark that i did think of on IND is this.......what if NO hits Manning like they hit Favre...not even sack him, just beat the living crap out of him (which by the way i think i enjoyed seeing last Sunday more than anything else this playoff season.....)....does Manning get happy feet?

More i think about it the more interesting it gets to me at least. I still standy by INDY having more of the advantages and i do like them to win this game.

Stiffy, again...pick the winner or no since that is your deal?

[Daws1089]

pick the winner system hasn't faired nearly as well this year as it has in previous seasons. Last superbowl pick the winner didn't work, but that has nothing to do with this year.

[Q-Unit]

One factor I think of that probably has no bearing on this Super Bowl, is the recent "smack" talking the defensive coordinator of the Saints was doing. Well the media blew it up, I didnt think it was a big deal, but it did make me focus on the fact that Gregg Williams was the defensive coordinator back with the Jaguars who played the Colts 2x a year.

I didnt do the leg work to back this up, but that makes me think does he have better personnel with the Saints or did he have better players with the Jags? Does it matter? As I recall Manning had trouble with only the Patriots D back in the day. And this does mean he is familiar with Williams style of defense.

- All in all, when you have 2 weeks (from a degenerate's point of view lol) to pick apart a game, you start to factor in past history, trends, recent history, voodoo economics, Reaganomics, etc.... and it really comes down to who does Vegas think will win?

- even that is subjective! lol

What is interesting is, if both teams remained perfect in the regular season and somehow made it to the Super Bowl, would would the line be?

Colts -3?
a pickem?

So does this line reflect the Manning factor, the Colts better SU record this season (by one win), Vegas knowing the Majority will be on the Colts, so they shade the line? Or vice versa trying to entice bettors to back the "feel good" Saints?

:bang:

[FlyersFan]

pick the winner system hasn't faired nearly as well this year as it has in previous seasons. Last superbowl pick the winner didn't work, but that has nothing to do with this year.

thanks. i don't bet NFL really and haven't followed the NFL a whole bunch this season from a wagering standpoint.

[Daws1089]

If Freeney does not play with the torn ligament in his ankle the game becomes a little different in my opinion. Without him, their defense upfront is not much to write home about. That would give Bushrod a bit of a break at LT too for NO. We'll see, I have a feeling he will still play, but it's something to keep your eye on.

[yomonte]

Freeney more than likely won't play and is probably why Pinny went to five. Betus and Sia, according to SI, are still settin' at 6.

[FlyersFan]

who is dwight freeney??