Divisional Playoff Discussion

[Daws1089]

NO -7/ 57
IND -6.5/ 44
MINN -2.5/ 45.5
SD-7.5/ 42


So far I see a lot of people liking AZ. I do not like AZ. I think they could have trouble getting focused for this one after such a huge win. Also, if GB was able to score at will on AZ, I can't even imagine what NO would do to the defense. AZ is better at stopping the run, but that doesn't really concern NO as they will throw 40 times without any problems. This total is extremely high for a playoff game. 57 points? I wonder if this is a trap. AZ is part of a 96 pt game last week and now they are playing the explosive saints so this has to be a shootout too? I don't know. A lot has to go right (or wrong) depending how you look at it for 57 pts to happen. I have to think AZ looks to sure up some of their defensive problems for this week and NO works on stopping some of the things AZ did on offense. I guess we'll see. There are probably better bets out there.

Balt +6.5 looks good to me too. 6.5 is begging for INDY money imo. I know Indy was -2 at BALT in the regular season, but laying less than a touchdown seems too easy.

[Q-Unit]

I can see a lot of sentiment that AZ keeps it rolling, and NO playing their worse at the worst time possible.

That being said, AZ proves that indeed you could theoretically turn it on when you need it most whereas NO would love nothing better than to duplicate AZ's showing on offense.

that total seems a bit high, I would lean under (what do I know lol), as I could see a lopsided affair that keeps it under akin to NO and NE when that game was a blowout but seemed to be progressing towards the over, but still hit the under incredulously.

- Daws, whats gonna happen to McNabb and Reid in your opinion? I think Philly fans should see there's not much out there in the QB department, and I still dont understand why they crucify the guy so much, he's rock solid good, albeit short on the "clutch" end.

As for Reid, I dunno why he hates running the ball so much. Their backs only ran it 10 times that whole game, and 7 times the week before. Dallas played man-to-man for the most part, bringing pressure on McNabb and/or dropping their LBs and rolling their safeties over to cover deep routes. I mean they didn't even try to make them respect the run.

I mean granted McCoy only had 5 touches, but his ypc was still 4.8. Far from an expert but I would think making your O one dimensional just makes it easier to scheme for the D.

Sorry to dredge this up, but I wanted to hear what you had to say. I really think Reid's adversity to running just keeps his O handcuffed when all he has to do is keep them honest, not asking them to be a power running team. I didnt even see that many screen passes.


- I think Indy's D is further along than New England's D this season, and Manning will do just enough to get by Baltimore. I think Manning has a decent history of success against the Ravens, he won't be rattled.

- I like Dallas' chances (of course), as long as their D is just playing out of their minds and they are facing a less mobile, more mistake-prone (given the circumstances) Favre. If Minny really succumbed to Favre's demands to pass more, and they don't feed AP that much, I think they will be OK. If they do feed AP, it will prove to be tougher, Favre could pick them apart without pressure. I'm nervous but not so much, I'm honestly happy I won't have to hear those playoff drought discussions for another decade or so lol.

- San Diego should dominate the Jets, but the way I've been picking games, I wouldn't put much stock into that. Both teams IMO reek of posers. San Diego has a crappy crappy crappy running game. Both Tomlinson and Sproles have had a subpar year, maybe faulted to a less dominant O-line, but they are one dimensional on offense. and the Jets will exploit this.
As a D, they are Ok but not spectacular, but that may be enough for the Jets to move the ball. Tough call, but IMO the Super Bowl representative for the AFC will be the winner of the Colts/Ravens game. Like I said, what do I know lolol

[Daws1089]

Q,

Your opinion on the Philly ground game is spot on. for whatever reason, Reid does not believe in running the ball at all. Like you said, even just 5 or 6 more runs would help keep the defense honest in certain situations. Even if they only avg. 3.5 yds a carry or around that its fine. I don't get it and never will. I'm sure part of it was that they were down in the game, but that doesn't prevent them from running the ball until they are in the 4th quarter I'd say so why no running before that? It's a debacle and I don't know what else to really say about it other than the eagles won't win a super bowl until Reid is gone. The philosophy is garbage.

As far what happens with Reid and Mcnabb, hes the qb. Of the two games Kolb started he did damn well, but two games and some mop up work is such a small body of work that we have no way of knowing if he is capable of taking over. In Reid's offense you have to have a good qb so in my opinion next year, Donovan is still the best option. Let him play out the contract and then he will be on his way out of town after next year. Kolb will be the starter when his time comes, although I think his contract is up next year too lol. And Vick will not be back next year. Someone will offer him better money, plus his option is way to hefty for the eagles to want to pick up. I heard some idiot on philly sports radio today calling in to say he wants to trade donovan and a 1st rounder for Cutler. LMAO. I'll take Mcnabb in heartbeat over that fraud.

Anyway, next year will be a sad year for me and other philly fans. It will be the last year of McNabb and Westbrook. Although I wouldn't be surprised if the Eagles release Westbrook before the season. It's sad. I also fully do not expect Sheldon Brown, Shawn Andrews and Mike Vick to be back. All are long gone in my opinion of course. Should be pleny new faces in Philly next year.

I think Dallas goes to the Super Bowl Q. They got all the parts and are playing so well. The biggest thing they have going for them right now is not one injury.

[yomonte]

Idon't think the line on NYJ/SD will go below 7. I'm surprised they didn't leave up the hook. If it hits 6 1/2, I'll make another bet. On Balt/Indy, Peyton had way too much time off. One wild card will cover the spread and it sure won't be the Jets. I really like Balt to be that wild card. I should grab the 6 1/2 now as I see that line going down. I've seen lower lines on worse teams against Indy Just my two cents, now I'm broke.

[hodown]

New orleans -7 under 57
Wagerline: 58% of consensus on arizona
Sportsbook: 83% of money on arizona

First thing I look at is to see if the line is in pick the winner range. Things I notice about games so far and games this week are: all four totals went over last week, and the public is on all four road teams. The latter is very surprising to me. The public likes what they see out of the teams they have watched recently, and don't like what they see from the teams that got byes that didn't really finish the season strong. You think if we got this line midseason that the majority would be on arizona? No. Bottom line is this. Arizona has no quality road wins of this stature, arizonas defense is suspect, warner will be a sitting duck. New orleans defense is fast, aggressive, and I think will control this game. If the cards had no answers for gb, they will have no answers here either. The saints have had time to rest starters and regroup for the most important postseason in franchise history and will be playing at home with the best homefield advantage in the nfl. I also believe that when new orleans gets ahead they won't go for the throat, its the playoffs afterall and style points don't matter, only the win. I expect to see new orleans jump out ahead and salt it away on the ground. The fact that arizona/gb put up 96 last week makes this under my top play of the week. Gbs def was a pharse, new orleans is not. One more point on no/az, 89% hiting the over. And one more point, arizona and neworleans are a combined 13-20 on the over this yr, somewhat surprising.

Baltimore + 6.5
Wagerline: 52% consensus on balt
Sportsbook: 76% money on balt

Pick the winner scenario, kind of sucks seeing so much on balt but it is what it is. Been back and forth on this game all week long. Prob not a strong play here but this is my take.

Indys margin of victory is 7 points on the year. Typically their games go back and forth between being up 3, down 4, etc. This makes me like points against them. However, I'm a very staunch proponent of the pick the winner system. Since it hits 85% of the time, there should be one or two games in the playoffs where it doesn't hit. I think with the colts and a high spread that this is one of them. Its tough for me to get over balt's egg at gb, on which balt looked helpless on both sides of the ball. They do have good momentum, and momentum is key in the playoffs. The colts really don't have that many weapons offensively, and the defense, though better than ne's, isn't top notch. Colts just don't have the makeup to pound teams. I think this one is tight throughout, and goes either way.

Dallas +2.5 over 45.5
Wagerline: 55% consensus on minny
Sportsbook: 81% money on dallas

No question dallas is getting hyped and hit hard in this one. I'm admittedly biased against the vikes and am trying to not let that sway me. Vikes are undefeated at home and dallas is the hotter team. Off and def statistics are essentially the same as well as the overall look of both teams. I would say the line is appropriate, minny giving 3 for homefield, dallas giving 0.5 because they're the hotter team. Minny just didn't really do it for me this year. I thought they might, but who have they beaten? They've been dynamite at home but no wins I'd classify as outstanding. winning last week means pressure off of dallas, and onto minny and favre. I try to look at playoff games in terms of what I would do if it were a neutral field, and I lean dallas. Also don't trust favre in big games as he tries to do too much. Both offenses lean pass over run which makes me like the over and I think a favre turnover late seals this for dallas.

San diego -7
Wagerline: 54% of consensu on nyj
Sportsbook: 69% of money on nyj

Line has adjusted from -9, which may have been a touch high. In playoff time I don't think books try to take the public as much as they try to get even money. If the initial line comes out wrong then their hands are kind of forced. Jets are smoke and mirrors in my opinion. I just don't see how a rookie qb who has had a horrible season is going to go on the road and beat the hottest team in the league. Postseason was handed to the jets, and they were fortunate to play a bengals team that is identical to themselves, and even more anemic offensively. They do play good defense but have a nonexistent passing attack. The jets are out of their element here, and sanchez will be forced to throw it, and that won't be good for nyj. Jets defense will be on the field quite a bit and will ultimately capitulate. Over/under will be tough cuz the chargers may put up a lot. Love the pick the winner here.

[DukiesBaby]

to me when i look at the matchups, i feel like its pointless to try and pick the underdogs who might win.... this whole year has been about these 4 home teams and how dominate they were going into week 12 and 13 i just dont see any of this changing we are in one of those years where these select few teams are heads and shoulders above everybody...

im going to be riding the home teams and eating all the points this weekend for as i believe they are the 4 best teams in football this year and they are all at home....


picks:

colts
saints
vikes
chargers



Good luck everyone and hope we get some decently good games too watch :beerbang:

[Underdog88]

wow guys.... thursday already and I haven't even typed one thought. Back in a sec with something

[Underdog88]

Jets are smoke and mirrors in my opinion. I just don't see how a rookie qb who has had a horrible season is going to go on the road and beat the hottest team in the league. Postseason was handed to the jets, and they were fortunate to play a bengals team that is identical to themselves, and even more anemic offensively. They do play good defense but have a nonexistent passing attack. The jets are out of their element here, and sanchez will be forced to throw it, and that won't be good for nyj. Jets defense will be on the field quite a bit and will ultimately capitulate. Over/under will be tough cuz the chargers may put up a lot. Love the pick the winner here.

No offense but every time I see reasoning for a play against the Jets this postseason it has been the rookie QB angle. Anyone remember Big Ben? I think this is a Jets team that is coming in with a chip on their shoulder and a defense playing at a pretty high level. I will say they got a lucky roll of the dice to get in the playoffs, but they still won the games needed and it's a moot point now.

In regards to the bolded part, I don't see how you can say they have a non existent passing attack. They are #1 vs the pass and were really consistent all year, only allowed 8tds through the air, while getting 17 picks. SD allowed 23 tds. I don't quite see how the Jets are out of their element as they have a good pass D and SD doesn't usually stick to the ground game enough. I don't see how Sanchez will be forced to throw, as SD has had trouble facing teams that are efficient on the ground.


Playing devil's advocate a bit here but look at SD's schedule.....

@Oak- unimpressive win/no cover as Oak runs for 148 4.6 ypc
vs Ravens- Ravens rush for 130. SD held to 53 rushing yds and are 0-5 in redzone
vs Dolphins- decieving final score as SD had late pick 6 and Fins fumbled on the 1 (they were 1-4 in redzone). Miami 149 rushing 4.8 ypc.
@Pitt- Completely got ran over. 177 allowed and SD was held to 17 yds on the ground (after getting down quick they virtually abandoned the run though).
@Denver- were held to 73 yds rushing and allowed 101. Chargers 2-11 on 3rd down

after that IMO the schedule got quite a bit easier.....

@KC, vs Oak, @NYG (they were handed that one on a silver platter lol). I give SD credit for the home win vs Philly, where they ran effectively 119 4.3, and held the Eagles to 29 rushing yards. They rolled Denver in a revenge game then KC again, Cleveland, and then a quality win vs Dallas.....


A couple things stick out to me.

though I think SD is a very good team, they may be getting a bit too much credit for rolling bad teams. The Jets are not some mystery team- they may throw a couple wrinkles in, but for the most part you know they are going to pound the run and try to create a couple opportunities for Sanchez to work the play action. They are not a team that will abandon the run, something I think SD is great at taking advantage of. The Chargers allowed 182 to Tenn, 114 to Cincy, 108 to Dallas, 115 to Clev, 177 to Pitt, 149 to Mia, 130 to Balty, 148 to Oak. I would think the Jets put up 140 minimum on the ground. No doubt NY would love to control TOP, as that's how SD lost the games they did. I think SD's best opportunity to get big chunks of yardage would be on delays and counters from Sproles to offset the blitz packages the Jets will throw at them....

A couple things worry me about playing the Jets. First is the fact that Cincy shredded them on the ground. 171 7.8 ypc. I'm sure they got an earful throughout the week about stopping the run, but who knows how they react. If Sd's run game is on they win and cover. They were vs Philly 119 4.3 pyc and looked great. If the Jets do stop the run and create long yardage situations, I like their chances.

Another worry is special teams. IMO the Chargers have the advantage there, and though the Jets punter returns I am still worried about the kicking game a little. SD has the better passing attack. Everyone is on Revis jock, but he really is that good. Gates is always a problem and I'm curious to see how the Jets blitz and still keep an eye on him, but IMO shutting down Vincent Jackson and the run would probably lead to a Jets su win. As of right now I lean towards Jets+pts and ML.

[hodown]

The sentence was misleading. I was getting at nyj having problems offensively with the pass, not defensively. I should've made that more clear.
On the rookie qb angle, its not just that he's a rookie, he's thrown 13 strikes against 20 picks! I'm assuming, and this is a big assumption, that sd is going to stuff the box and force sanchez to win this. As much huffing as the entire jets team does, I'm not buying in. Maybe nyj does a good job of managing the game the way they did against indy, but I see this going more along the lines of the nyj/saints game. Its fashionable to try and find these wildcard teams to pull upsets but I'm not seeing it here. I've been wrong a few times before however

[Underdog88]

Ah I see hodown:thumbs:



Colts/Ravens- I think this had to be a tough line for oddsmakers to set. After all the ravens just dismantled the Patriots. The Colts haven't played a meaningful game in a month. The Colts don't win by 7 or more, they sneak by and do what it takes to get the W. Kind of reminds me of what people were saying about the Colts during the 06 sb run. Most people making a play on the Ravens will do so thinking they at least keep it close, but I don't see it the same way. This line is too easy to think trap and go Ravens. Biggest difference between the regular season matchup and this one is that this is @Indy. The Ravens did not impress on the road. 3-5 with the sole win vs a playoff team coming early in the season @SD. road losses to NE, Minny, Cincy, GB and Pitt. Congrats to beating Cleveland and Oakland (unimpressively I might add). Look at the numbers that opposing qbs racked up vs the Ravens on the road. Favre, Brady, Palmer, Rogers, River all 230+. Do you really want to back this team facing the best qb ever? I don't.

The events that took place in the 1stq for Balty last week totally skewed the numbers. Flacco had zero need to make a key throw at any point, and the ravens just pounded the run to get the game over with. I don't see it being the same way @Indy. The Colts still have a ton of weapons offensively- Peyton was 22-31 for 299@Bal, but did have 2 ints. They did a great job of holding the run game down, allowing just 98 yds 3.2 ypc. Flacco was held without a td pass and the Ravens were 0-4 in the redzone. Looking at this game I keep thinking the Ravens won the turnover battle, only had 2 penalties, won the T.O.P. and STILL LOST. I have to believe that the Colts will be able to move the ball through the air and do enough defensively to get the win, so for me a play on the Ravens is out of the question. Lean Indy- the number and perhaps a play on the Indy team over.....

[hodown]

Balt is scary and I don't see a strong side in either game. To me its weird to like balt and not the jets or visaversa, I don't see a huge difference in either matchup. Obviously the pressure is on both teams, but can't you kind of sense that if things don't go right for the colts to start off this game that there's going to be a sense of, "maybe we shouldn't have pulled our guys in week 16?" Same could be said for new orleans I guess.
I think new orleans is my favorite play of this week, however

[Daws1089]

Udog,

SD is terrible at running the rock so I'm not sure they will have much success with it, which sort of works to their advantage since NYJ are so good at stopping the run. Revis can't cover everyone so I'd think they use Gates, Floyd and Naanee a bunch. Maybe I'm wrong and SD will try to run the rock to throw NYJ off, but they are not very good at it so I don't know how that will go.


The Colts have been winning by small margins all year so maybe this larger line is an indicator to maybe back them? Colts have never won as a 1st rd bye team. They year they got to the super bowl they had to play wild card weekend. Flacco is banged up so I know BAL will want to keep the run game going. I don't think BAL has enough weapons if IND forces them to throw. I liked BAL initially, but now I;m thinking it might have been an overreaction to what happened last week. I'll have to think this game over more.


Minny is 8-0 at home, yet just a weak -2.5 pt favs? 2.5 leads em to believe the books are not all that confident in Minny. Other wise, whats preventing this from being -3.5 or -4? Is Minny's defense going to magically show up this week when a meaningful game comes along? Before they played the NYG who packed it in weeks before, the Vikes gave up 36 to Jay Cutler and the Bear's and 26 the week before to Matt Moore and the Panthers lol. Maybe those were just bumps in the road, but definitely a cause for concern. Teams have been able to run on this defense. The front line has not been much of a wall really and Jared Allen has done squat in the last quarter of the season. I like Dallas and their stellar D. Their offense has plenty of firepower to give Minny problems. Based on the short line, I'm siding with Dallas.

[FlyersFan]

Revis can't cover everyone so I'd think they use Gates, Floyd and Naanee a bunch.


.

exactly. funny nobody is talking about the physical advantages the SDG receivers have over the Jets DB's. They are tall and physical and somebody is going to have to matchup on Gates, Floyd, Sproles out of the backfield along with Revis on Jackson.

this is a completely different animal than they got last week with Cincinnati who never throws to RB's, doesn't have a TE and had 1 worth while WR.

And SDG runs enough...they aren't eagle like. But their passing game is what runs that team.

I think it is honestly going to be interesting to see if the NYJ can cover all those weapons. Sproles has some freeking wheels and GL putting a LB on Gates or Sproles for that matter.

[Reggie Hamlin]

The Jets have only lost 2 games by 10 points or more all year they got blown out in
new england and lost by 14 to the Saints other than that it's been single digits.
If they can run the ball and set up play action for Sanchez and keep the offense
simple they have a good chance here. The thing that worries me is Gates
he is the x factor you can't cover him with a LB if they try that look for him
to have a HUGE day over the middle. The Jets have to keep it close here if they fall behind say 10-3 or 14-6 they are in trouble. They have nothing to lose and should play this game pretty loose they are playing with house money.I like the Jets plus the pioints in what I think will be a pretty tight game. But I've been wrong before.

[Daws1089]

Kerry Rhodes will most likely cover Gates so yea good luck with a LB on sproles