Lang Sunday

[deadheadct]

The fist one is from his daily news show........

BRANDON LANG
PHILLY DAILY NEWS LIVE

BALTIMORE RAVENS under 43
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -3

ARIZONA CARDINALS over 47.5 (two for the $)
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These are his paid Plays..........


BRANDON LANG
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70 DIME - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS - (if 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 3. Never get beat by the hook.) - Until somebody shows me they can roll into Foxboro and beat Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in a playoff game, I will lay the number and roll with this combo everyday of the week.

Joe Flacco has had a nice year, but on the road in the playoffs I just don't trust him in his 2nd year.

I know he was somewhat successful last year in reaching the AFC championship game versus the Steelers and played well, but fact of the matter is he is no Tom Brady.

I also feel we are getting solid line value with the Patriots with Welker being out and just how big a deal everyone is making out of it and how Tom Brady can't survive without him.

Well my friends, I disagree.

Edleman filled in fantastic last week and he is a mini-me of Welker, and at home in a playoff atmosphere, this Patriots bunch will be hard to beat.

I don't think Joe Flacco knows just how hard a place this is to win in, and you don't know it until you have at least experienced it a time or two.

Somebody should have given Flacco Peyton Manning's number because he can tell him how hard it is to win there seeing as Peyton couldn't do it either.

New England was a perfect 8-0 at home winning every single home game by double digits with exception to week one beating the Bills by 1 and week 3 beating these Ravens by 6.

This game may be close for awhile but against this poor secondary of the Ravens they will do what they have done all year long and that is give up the big play to a good QB and I think we can agree Brady is just that.

This game will come down to which QB is able to make the big play and for my dollar it's Brady at home to remain perfect in the playoffs. Simple as that.

25 DIME - GREEN BAY PACKERS - (if 1 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 1. If 2 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 2. Buy the 1/2 down. Never get beat by the hook.)

25 DIME - GREEN BAY-ARIZONA OVER - Nothing leads me to believe this meeting will be any different than the last meeting.

You saw the Jets handle the Bengals for the 2nd week in a row. You saw the Cowboys handle the Eagles for the 2nd week in a row.

The Green Bay Packers will complete the hat-trick for rematch games with the win today.

If you give Aaron Rogers time to throw, he is going to make you pay. It really is as simple as that.

Now I said yesterday the Bengals just don't match up with the Jets, and then they went out and proved me right. Well my feeling today is exactly the same with the Packers and the Cardinals.

For whatever reason, whether it's the receiver corps or Rogers or Grant, the Packers have their way offensively with this Cardinals defense and because of that, they are without question the right side to this game.

Now does the line move scare me a bit? Absolutely. The world has moved this line from the Cardinals -2 1/2 to the Packers -1 1/2 as of this writing Saturday night.

Now you can look at this line move 2 ways. The first is everyone is betting the Packers and the linemaker can do nothing but move the line or two, maybe Green Bay should have been a 2 point favorite all along.

Either way, I just don't like the way the Cardinals have looked down the stretch and especially Kurt Warner. Since his concussion he hasn't seemed himself and bottom line is I don't trust him in this spot today.

As I said at the top, Jets delivered for a 2nd straight week, the Cowboys delivered for the 2nd straight week and I see no reason why the Packers, winners of 7 of their last 8 SU and 7-0-1 ATS to flat out pay out like a slot machine once again.

You add the fact the Packers have gone over 13 of their last 16 as a road favorite of 0-to-3 points, and the Cardinals have gone over 11 of their last 13 as an underdog of 0-to-3 points and I love the over as well.

I truly feel this is going to be a track meet from the opening kickoff and when the smoke clears the Packers win this won 34-27.

FREE SELECTION - BALTIMORE-NEW ENGLAND UNDER

[Stifler's Mom]

Not to get anyone excited that likes to buy points, but there is no way on earth that buying -2.5 to -2 or -1.5 to -1 is EVER going to be profitable in the long run.

Nor is buying -3.5 to -3 or -3 to -2.5 for that matter, especially with the extra juice books charge to do it, but do what you will.....

[tdawgmd]

Not to get anyone excited that likes to buy points, but there is no way on earth that buying -2.5 to -2 or -1.5 to -1 is EVER going to be profitable in the long run.

Nor is buying -3.5 to -3 or -3 to -2.5 for that matter, especially with the extra juice books charge to do it, but do what you will.....

Generally agree, but I have had my arse saved a lot this year by buying the half. A lot of the big matchups with short spreads tend to be close, and I'd much rather be sitting -3 or less if I feel like it could be close for the fav.

[recovering77]

Generally agree, but I have had my arse saved a lot this year by buying the half. A lot of the big matchups with short spreads tend to be close, and I'd much rather be sitting -3 or less if I feel like it could be close for the fav.

I don't remember many times in the NFL a team losing by the hook with the exception of the Pittsburgh Steelers games. I agree though. Buying up and paying something like -140 just isn't worth it.

[Stifler's Mom]

Oh, i'm not saying it never comes into play, but what does your book charge you to buy on or off 3?

If it's 20 cents, you'd need that half to come into play 1 in every 5 times you bet just to break even, right? Which I'm not saying is impossible depending on how many plays you make and what they are, but generally speaking, there is no way that buying a half point on or off 3 (or 7, 10, 14 etc) is going to come into play often enough to be profitable at 20 cents per half point.

And if you buy -3.5 to -2.5, i assume they are charging you 40 cents to do that at most books. That's 1 in every 2.5 games has to land exactly on 3. No way that's profitable.

I do realize some books (Pinnacle for one) charge less to buy, but there is still a "premium" on the "key" numbers there, i just don't remember what it is.

The thing with Lang is that he suggests all this point buying every single day, but doesn't seem to count it in his record as extra money lost....as if you can just buy points and choose your line for free, lol

I think i'm gonna keep track of this cat's record for 2010 and see how he does. I heard he lost over 1900 dimes last year, but can't personally verify it.

I'd like to throw the "dimes" aside and show if it would be profitable or not profitable to flat bet fade him on every play he releases....but in doing so, then every play where he buys from -3.5 to -3 or -3 to -2.5 would have to be @ -130 juice, which throws another wrench into the works....which is exactly what he wants....so his record is confusing to figure out and he can always boast some kind of nonsense that will continue to make people unsure.

I mean if he is taking wins/pushes instead of pushes/losses for every one where he buys the 1/2, but not charging himself 20 cents juice to do so, it's obvious right there how much his actual record is off by, lol

[Larry]

I almost never buy points, but I did today with NE. My reasoning is that I made a nice profit yesterday so why not use some of that a bring it down to 3, just in case. Like I said I rarely do this so once in a while aint really gonna cost me.