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Final 2009 Defensive Hog Index
Cold, Hard Football Facts for January 4, 2010
ABOUT THE DEFENSIVE HOG INDEX
The Defensive Hog Index is our effort to quantify which team has the best defensive front in football. It's proven a huge indicator of success since we introduced it during the 2007 season: teams that are better in the DHI are 20-2 in the playoffs over that time, and the No. 1 team in DHI has won the Super Bowl each year (2007 Giants and 2008 Steelers).
This isn't rocket science, folks. The Defensive Hog Index simply looks at at each team in three major, easy-to-understand categories and ranks them by average in these categories.
The top defensive front is that which posts the highest average rating across the board. The Defensive Hog Index is based upon these criteria:
YPA – Yards Per Attempt. So simple, even you can understand it. This rates a defense's ability to stuff an opposing ground game.
NPP% – Negative Pass Plays, expressed as a percentage. This is how often an opponent's pass plays end in either a sack or interception. Defenses that get after the quarterback and overwhelm the opposing offensive line naturally force sacks and INTs. These negative pass plays are calculated as a percentage of attempts. So if a team foces two sacks and two INTs in 40 pass plays, their NPP% will be 10 percent (4/40).
3down% - Opposition success rate on third down. The lower the percentage, the higher the defensive success.
DEFENSIVE HOG INDEX UPDATE
Based on the buzz of the big media and the blogosphere alike, and the tenor of the emails to the cardboard-box world headquarters, the Defensive Hog Index remains the Quality Stat that has Trolldom in a tizzy (final numbers for 2009 are below).
The Defensive Hog Index, as you know, has been the most insightful indicator of postseason success in all of sports since we introduced the Quality Stat in 2007.
It’s a stat so accurate that Trolls use it to shoot beer cans off the heads of their children to pass the time between playoff games. (Please note, the Cold, Hard Football Facts do NOT condone this activity … at least not without a few drinks to take the edge off.)
The indicator, as we first discovered last year when it was pointed out to us by a loyal CHFF reader, has gone 20-2 straight up and 18-4 ATS picking playoff winners over the past two years.
But is that brilliant performance a fluke, or is it a pigskin portent of things to come, a magical statistical elixir of football enligtenment?
We don’t know. The Taco Bell Diet has us feeling weak and mentally malnourished. Plus, The indicator is only two years old. That’s not a lot of data and we might have just caught a wave of success of Defensive Hog-ism.
But we do know this: its worth as an indicator will be tested like never before here in the 2009 postseason. After all, three of the big favorites to win the Super Bowl, the NFC No. 1-seed Saints, the AFC No. 1-seed Colts and the AFC No. 2-seed and red-hot Chargers all fielded poor Defensive Hogs in 2009.
New Orleans finished the year No. 15 in DHI – No. 27 against the run (4.52 YPA), No. 6 forcing Negative Pass Plays (10.16%) and No. 14 on third downs (37.96%).
San Diego finished the year tied for No. 26 in DHI (with the lowly Bucs) – No. 24 against the run (4.45 YPA), No. 22 forcing Negative Pass Plays (8.45%) and No. 23 on third downs (40.39%).
Indianapolis finished the year a dreadful No. 30 in DHI (ahead of only the woeful Lions and Rams) – No. 19 against the run (4.33 YPA), No. 25 forcing Negative Pass Plays (8.10%) and No. 31 on third downs (45.02%).
In other words, success in the 2009 regular season and success in our Defensive Hog Index clashed violently this year, like Persians and Spartans hacking away at each other at the Gates of Fire.
Teams favored by the DHI
So we know the NFL’s quaint old seeding system favors teams like the Saints, Colts, Chargers and Vikings. It even handed these teams a week off to refresh and regroup or, in the case of the Colts, to not show up to play for the third week in a row.
But who does the DHI favor? It might prove to be an important question.
As loyal CHFF readers know (Hi cousin Bo!), the No. 1 team in the DHI has won the Super Bowl each of the two years since we introduced the indicator (2007 Giants, 2008 Steelers).
This year, that trend favors a team we identified as a Super Bowl dark horse back in December: the Packers.
Green Bay finished the 2009 season with the NFL’s No. 1 Defensive Hogs. They stuff the run as well as anyone (3.59 YPA, 2nd); they force more Negative Pass Plays than any team in football (11.61%), paced by a league-leading 30 INTs, and they’re No. 9 in third-down defense (36.02%).
But the Packers, for all the proficiency of their Defensive Hogs, are just 11-5 and the NFC’s No. 5 seed.
It’s a similar tale for most of the leading Defensive Hogs who appear in the playoffs this year:
The Eagles are No. 2 in the DHI, but the NFC’s No. 6 seed.
The Vikings are No. 3 in the DHI, and the NFC’s No. 2 seed (so that looks like a winning combination).
The Jets are No. 4 in the DHI, but just 9-7 and the AFC’s No. 5 seed.
The Ravens are No. 7 in the DHI, but just 9-7 and the AFC’s No. 6 seed.
So anything short of a Vikings Super Bowl victory, there will be an upset in the 2009 playoffs: either the top Defensive Hogs will upset the NFL’s top-seeded heavyweights; or the NFL’s top-seeded heavyweights will upset the almighty power of the Defensive Hog Index.
Stay tuned.
In the meantime, here are the final numbers from the 2009 season.
Final 2009 Defensive Hog Index
Team YPA # NPP% # 3down% # Avg
1 Green Bay 3.59 2 11.61 1 36.02 9 4.0
2 Philadelphia 4.06 12 11.06 3 33.03 2 5.7
3 Minnesota 3.89 6 9.97 9 34.5 3 6.0
4 N.Y. Jets 3.76 4 9.19 16 31.51 1 7.0
5t Miami 4.21 15 10.9 4 34.85 4 7.7
5t San Francisco 3.64 3 9.94 10 36.67 10 7.7
7 Baltimore 3.43 1 9.71 12 36.7 11 8.0
8 Dallas 3.97 9 8.63 21 35 5 11.7
9 Carolina 4.44 22 10.08 7 35.53 7 12.0
10 Arizona 4.49 25 10.06 8 35.34 6 13.0
11 Cincinnati 3.94 7 9.12 17 38.57 16 13.3
12t Denver 4.5 26 10.2 5 37.16 13 14.7
12t Pittsburgh 3.85 5 9.75 11 42.29 28 14.7
14 Washington 4.02 10 9.24 14 39.73 21 15.0
15 New Orleans 4.52 27 10.16 6 37.96 14 15.7
16 Oakland 4.54 28 9.49 13 35.81 8 16.3
17 N.Y. Giants 4.18 14 8.66 20 38.69 17 17.0
18 New England 4.44 23 9.02 18 37.11 12 17.7
19 Buffalo 4.71 30 11.21 2 40.42 24 18.7
20 Seattle 4.15 13 6.88 29 39.01 19 20.3
21 Houston 4.31 18 7.29 27 39.3 20 21.7
22t Atlanta 3.96 8 7.61 26 45.33 32 22.0
22t Cleveland 4.58 29 8.83 19 38.91 18 22.0
22t Tennessee 4.27 16 8.19 24 40.83 26 22.0
25 Chicago 4.29 17 8.32 23 41.15 27 22.3
26t San Diego 4.45 24 8.45 22 40.39 23 23.0
26t Tampa Bay 4.78 32 9.22 15 40.19 22 23.0
28 Jacksonville 4.05 11 5.53 32 44.98 30 24.3
29 Kansas City 4.72 31 7.14 28 38.12 15 24.7
30 Indianapolis 4.33 19 8.1 25 45.02 31 25.0
31 Detroit 4.42 21 6.12 31 40.48 25 25.7
32 St. Louis 4.4 20 6.4 30 43.54 29 26.3
Cold, Hard Football Facts for January 4, 2010
ABOUT THE DEFENSIVE HOG INDEX
The Defensive Hog Index is our effort to quantify which team has the best defensive front in football. It's proven a huge indicator of success since we introduced it during the 2007 season: teams that are better in the DHI are 20-2 in the playoffs over that time, and the No. 1 team in DHI has won the Super Bowl each year (2007 Giants and 2008 Steelers).
This isn't rocket science, folks. The Defensive Hog Index simply looks at at each team in three major, easy-to-understand categories and ranks them by average in these categories.
The top defensive front is that which posts the highest average rating across the board. The Defensive Hog Index is based upon these criteria:
YPA – Yards Per Attempt. So simple, even you can understand it. This rates a defense's ability to stuff an opposing ground game.
NPP% – Negative Pass Plays, expressed as a percentage. This is how often an opponent's pass plays end in either a sack or interception. Defenses that get after the quarterback and overwhelm the opposing offensive line naturally force sacks and INTs. These negative pass plays are calculated as a percentage of attempts. So if a team foces two sacks and two INTs in 40 pass plays, their NPP% will be 10 percent (4/40).
3down% - Opposition success rate on third down. The lower the percentage, the higher the defensive success.
DEFENSIVE HOG INDEX UPDATE
Based on the buzz of the big media and the blogosphere alike, and the tenor of the emails to the cardboard-box world headquarters, the Defensive Hog Index remains the Quality Stat that has Trolldom in a tizzy (final numbers for 2009 are below).
The Defensive Hog Index, as you know, has been the most insightful indicator of postseason success in all of sports since we introduced the Quality Stat in 2007.
It’s a stat so accurate that Trolls use it to shoot beer cans off the heads of their children to pass the time between playoff games. (Please note, the Cold, Hard Football Facts do NOT condone this activity … at least not without a few drinks to take the edge off.)
The indicator, as we first discovered last year when it was pointed out to us by a loyal CHFF reader, has gone 20-2 straight up and 18-4 ATS picking playoff winners over the past two years.
But is that brilliant performance a fluke, or is it a pigskin portent of things to come, a magical statistical elixir of football enligtenment?
We don’t know. The Taco Bell Diet has us feeling weak and mentally malnourished. Plus, The indicator is only two years old. That’s not a lot of data and we might have just caught a wave of success of Defensive Hog-ism.
But we do know this: its worth as an indicator will be tested like never before here in the 2009 postseason. After all, three of the big favorites to win the Super Bowl, the NFC No. 1-seed Saints, the AFC No. 1-seed Colts and the AFC No. 2-seed and red-hot Chargers all fielded poor Defensive Hogs in 2009.
New Orleans finished the year No. 15 in DHI – No. 27 against the run (4.52 YPA), No. 6 forcing Negative Pass Plays (10.16%) and No. 14 on third downs (37.96%).
San Diego finished the year tied for No. 26 in DHI (with the lowly Bucs) – No. 24 against the run (4.45 YPA), No. 22 forcing Negative Pass Plays (8.45%) and No. 23 on third downs (40.39%).
Indianapolis finished the year a dreadful No. 30 in DHI (ahead of only the woeful Lions and Rams) – No. 19 against the run (4.33 YPA), No. 25 forcing Negative Pass Plays (8.10%) and No. 31 on third downs (45.02%).
In other words, success in the 2009 regular season and success in our Defensive Hog Index clashed violently this year, like Persians and Spartans hacking away at each other at the Gates of Fire.
Teams favored by the DHI
So we know the NFL’s quaint old seeding system favors teams like the Saints, Colts, Chargers and Vikings. It even handed these teams a week off to refresh and regroup or, in the case of the Colts, to not show up to play for the third week in a row.
But who does the DHI favor? It might prove to be an important question.
As loyal CHFF readers know (Hi cousin Bo!), the No. 1 team in the DHI has won the Super Bowl each of the two years since we introduced the indicator (2007 Giants, 2008 Steelers).
This year, that trend favors a team we identified as a Super Bowl dark horse back in December: the Packers.
Green Bay finished the 2009 season with the NFL’s No. 1 Defensive Hogs. They stuff the run as well as anyone (3.59 YPA, 2nd); they force more Negative Pass Plays than any team in football (11.61%), paced by a league-leading 30 INTs, and they’re No. 9 in third-down defense (36.02%).
But the Packers, for all the proficiency of their Defensive Hogs, are just 11-5 and the NFC’s No. 5 seed.
It’s a similar tale for most of the leading Defensive Hogs who appear in the playoffs this year:
The Eagles are No. 2 in the DHI, but the NFC’s No. 6 seed.
The Vikings are No. 3 in the DHI, and the NFC’s No. 2 seed (so that looks like a winning combination).
The Jets are No. 4 in the DHI, but just 9-7 and the AFC’s No. 5 seed.
The Ravens are No. 7 in the DHI, but just 9-7 and the AFC’s No. 6 seed.
So anything short of a Vikings Super Bowl victory, there will be an upset in the 2009 playoffs: either the top Defensive Hogs will upset the NFL’s top-seeded heavyweights; or the NFL’s top-seeded heavyweights will upset the almighty power of the Defensive Hog Index.
Stay tuned.
In the meantime, here are the final numbers from the 2009 season.
Final 2009 Defensive Hog Index
Team YPA # NPP% # 3down% # Avg
1 Green Bay 3.59 2 11.61 1 36.02 9 4.0
2 Philadelphia 4.06 12 11.06 3 33.03 2 5.7
3 Minnesota 3.89 6 9.97 9 34.5 3 6.0
4 N.Y. Jets 3.76 4 9.19 16 31.51 1 7.0
5t Miami 4.21 15 10.9 4 34.85 4 7.7
5t San Francisco 3.64 3 9.94 10 36.67 10 7.7
7 Baltimore 3.43 1 9.71 12 36.7 11 8.0
8 Dallas 3.97 9 8.63 21 35 5 11.7
9 Carolina 4.44 22 10.08 7 35.53 7 12.0
10 Arizona 4.49 25 10.06 8 35.34 6 13.0
11 Cincinnati 3.94 7 9.12 17 38.57 16 13.3
12t Denver 4.5 26 10.2 5 37.16 13 14.7
12t Pittsburgh 3.85 5 9.75 11 42.29 28 14.7
14 Washington 4.02 10 9.24 14 39.73 21 15.0
15 New Orleans 4.52 27 10.16 6 37.96 14 15.7
16 Oakland 4.54 28 9.49 13 35.81 8 16.3
17 N.Y. Giants 4.18 14 8.66 20 38.69 17 17.0
18 New England 4.44 23 9.02 18 37.11 12 17.7
19 Buffalo 4.71 30 11.21 2 40.42 24 18.7
20 Seattle 4.15 13 6.88 29 39.01 19 20.3
21 Houston 4.31 18 7.29 27 39.3 20 21.7
22t Atlanta 3.96 8 7.61 26 45.33 32 22.0
22t Cleveland 4.58 29 8.83 19 38.91 18 22.0
22t Tennessee 4.27 16 8.19 24 40.83 26 22.0
25 Chicago 4.29 17 8.32 23 41.15 27 22.3
26t San Diego 4.45 24 8.45 22 40.39 23 23.0
26t Tampa Bay 4.78 32 9.22 15 40.19 22 23.0
28 Jacksonville 4.05 11 5.53 32 44.98 30 24.3
29 Kansas City 4.72 31 7.14 28 38.12 15 24.7
30 Indianapolis 4.33 19 8.1 25 45.02 31 25.0
31 Detroit 4.42 21 6.12 31 40.48 25 25.7
32 St. Louis 4.4 20 6.4 30 43.54 29 26.3
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