Lessons Learned by Tommy Gold after his first 1000 picks!

[TommyGold]

Yes, it is true, I've achieved my first 1000 picks milestone and I decided to do some analysis on it.

Some people have asked how I handicap my games, if I use any kind of systems or statistic models, or if it is just done by feeling.


My analysis is done game by game, where I look to several aspects of the game, starting with motivation and commitment of each side on the game, then I break down the matchups between the teams in order to finish with a final number or probabilities for each outcome. I usually play on Moneylines, Handicaps and Totals like everyone else, taking attention on how each team performs on their offense and defense, and to have a proper read for each team, I watch a lot of games yearly as my availability allows, in order to know the team's moment and since I follow NBA long time ago, it's easier for me to predict how each team will play on their next game. I also read the boxscores carefully on the games that I don't have opportunity to watch and I try to keep pace with the news, which I believe is standard practice among most successful punters.

I use a lot of feeling on my betting, meaning, I look at how good the key or influential players are performing on their teams, I try to gauge their motivation, to know how the coaches will approach the game, in order to antecipate their gameplan. A team with a goad coach, or with a good and sound gameplan, with good motivation, can be a very nice proposition, because we can expect few errors from them than can compromise our plays. About motivation, sometimes some players might be fired up for tonight, so we can count on extra-effort and that can be contagious for the rest of the team, because leaders show the way for the rest of their teammates.

Other times, an underrated player might have an huge window of opportunity to show up and do his best to get noticed. As a former youth basketball player, I know how those guys might feel and I try to get on their heads and then to foresee how they might play during the game in terms of effort. Then, we have the usual array of questions in an handicapper's checklist for each team, like the following:

- how a certain team plays against a certain kind of game (run and gun vs slow place);

- if the team loves to play at home or on the road (some teams only do their job at home ;);

- if they know how to manage leads (some teams just blow it or open room to some sort of backdoor cover...);

- if the team gets extra motivation by playing against teams on the spotlight;

- if the coaches are smart enough and do the same study as I do about their adversaries and don't do lineup errors on their rotation;

- know how the team performs without a certain player in their lineup

- which referees favor more the home teams than others...

- know how a certain team will perform for a certain period of time without a key (inteligent) player, some teams have good backups, others don't...


I also try to figure it out why certain lines are moving, if there is any breaking news, if it is just money flowing on the markets.

This is what I do pregame. Then I keep tab of all these aspects on my notebook and record my plays on a spreadsheet, where among other things, I record my own line and odds against the line and odds offered as a great friend of mine and teacher told me to do, and in the end of the day or in the next day, I update the record and from time to time, I just go back and try to see if I'm heading in a good way or if I'm straying off course...


This leads me to my overall record since NFL 2009 Week 1 (Sep. 13, 2009) until yesterday, Jan. 6, 2010.

From 2009.09.13 to 2009.10.17: 31-33 (-0.47 units won/64 units risked);
Until 2009.10.25 season record: 46-52 (-2.74 units won/98 units risked);
Until 2009.11.01 season record: 57-66 (-1.3 units won/123 units risked);

So, my first 1/8 picks lead me to short loss. Then I had to deal with some problems on the next 3 weeks (from 2009.11.02 until 2009.11.22) and the indecision to deal properly with those problems lead to a loss of focus and motivation on my handicapping that was paid dearly (-29.37 units lost on 125 picks), a great lesson learned indeed, as you can see on my record:

Until 2009.11.08 season record: 62-75 (-7.03 units won/137 units risked);
Until 2009.11.15 season record: 68-87 (-11.91 units won/155 units risked);
Until 2009.11.22 season record: 106-142-2 (-30.67 units won/248 units risked);

On the last two weeks of November I hit bottom and then started a steady and consistent (so far) bounce back and I think I got back my mojo:

Until 2009.11.29 season record: 202-218-4 (-9.94 units won/420 units risked);
Until 2009.12.06 season record: 276-297-5 (-10.19 units won/573 units risked);
Until 2009.12.13 season record: 310-337-5 (-16.06 units won/647 units risked);

On the first week of December I had two days with flu and headaches and on the Xmas week, I had little sleep time since the family had a new arrival, so my head did't had enough time to rest and when that happens, the results are very negative:

Until 2009.12.20 season record: 359-374-6 (-3.58 units won/733 units risked);
Until 2009.12.27 season record: 409-418-9 (+4.47 units won/827 units risked);
Until 2010.01.03 season record: 476-476-12 (+15.28 units won/952 units risked);

And then, you have the last 56 picks, which gives us a total of 1008 picks:

NFL 2009 Season record: 63-71-3 (-14.18 units lost/134 units risked);
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 100-120-3 (+8.34 units won/220 units risked)
NCAAB 2009-2010 Handicaps & Totals season record: 168-154-3 (+0.96 units won/322 units risked)
NCAAB 2009-2010 Moneylines season record: 12-39-1 (-21.42 units lost/51 units risked)
NBA 2009/2010 Handicaps and Totals Record: 122-80-1 (+30.74 units won/202 units risked)
NBA 2009/2010 Moneylines Record: 23-21 (+13 units won/44 units risked)
NCAAF 2009-2010 Bowls Point Spreads and Totals season record: 12-13-3 (-2.08 units lost/25 units risked)
NCAAF 2009-2010 Bowls Moneylines season record: 6-4 (+5.75 units won/10 units risked)

Until 2009.01.06 season record: 506-502-14 (+21.11 units won/1008 units risked)

Since I started handicapping NBA on the forum, 2009.11.23, my overall season record is this one: 406-360-12 (+51.78 units won/760 units risked).


There are some questions that my current record poses, like what to do on the future about my NFL Sunday and Monday Night Games picks, specially on the last weeks, or the college hoops moneylines.

I should also ask myself how long and how many seasons I need on NHL and NBA to just focus on those two sports (together with MLB) or if college basketball with a lower but acceptable rate of return can also be a source of profits. This leads to the ethereal discussions of money management and how much one should commit per pick on each play, an issue that for now I'm avoiding to deal since I always risk the same amount in order to not compromise my expected true edge. ;)


I would like to share my thanks to all of those that showed support to me and I hope that this thread hopes you in some manner in your handicapping. :)


Good luck!

[FlyersFan]

Until 2009.01.06 season record: 506-502-14 (+21.11 units won/1008 units risked)

There are some questions that my current record poses

actually what is poses is what i've said all along about gambling in general and most people on this site and every other site....it's a giant Fking waste of time for people to be doing this. all that work for 21Units....:dunno: I would think that all of your time could have been put to better use in some other areas of your life when you start talking about the "opportunity cost" of gambling. i took it up a few years ago and basically had a little fun with it for about 3-4 years but i really don't do much of it. i enjoy coming on this site and interacting when i can but time is better served elsewhere and not trying to pick a card in 9 different sports everyday like that IMO. I have made more than i've lost but i finally came to the realization over the last year that it doesn't come close to justifying the time spent doing it, and to think that you can do this for some miniscule time every day and win is selling it short.

i know to some it's "fun" but i would have to believe that there are better uses of time than sitting around looking at every single line on a daily basis. Even if it's just a 1/2 hour a day you spend x 365 days...you would have spent almost 12 normal 16 hour days out of your year doing this. for every guy who has a +100 unit season in a sport he will have an awful season to offset it. for every guy who does well in 1 sport he will give it back in another.

most people don't even make 21 units so props to you in all seriousness for making something over your 1008 posts in all those sports......:thumbs:

just my 2 cents....

[NittanyLions94]

actually what is poses is what i've said all along about gambling in general and most people on this site and every other site....it's a giant Fking waste of time for people to be doing this. all that work for 21Units....:dunno: I would think that all of your time could have been put to better use in some other areas of your life when you start talking about the "opportunity cost" of gambling. i took it up a few years ago and basically had a little fun with it for about 3-4 years but i really don't do much of it. i enjoy coming on this site and interacting when i can but time is better served elsewhere and not trying to pick a card in 9 different sports everyday like that IMO. I have made more than i've lost but i finally came to the realization over the last year that it doesn't come close to justifying the time spent doing it, and to think that you can do this for some miniscule time every day and win is selling it short.

i know to some it's "fun" but i would have to believe that there are better uses of time than sitting around looking at every single line on a daily basis. Even if it's just a 1/2 hour a day you spend x 365 days...you would have spent almost 12 normal 16 hour days out of your year doing this. for every guy who has a +100 unit season in a sport he will have an awful season to offset it. for every guy who does well in 1 sport he will give it back in another.

most people don't even make 21 units so props to you in all seriousness for making something over your 1008 posts in all those sports......:thumbs:

just my 2 cents....

The thrill isn't all in the winning of money though. Sure that's the ultimate goal, but the excitement of watching a game while you have money riding on it is undeniably more exciting than just watching a random game. So for people that do break even in the long run, like this guy, it is more of a hobby than anything else. He isn't losing money, but he isn't making money, but he is at least getting some sort of thrill out of it.

Or something.

[FlyersFan]

The thrill isn't all in the winning of money though. Sure that's the ultimate goal, but the excitement of watching a game while you have money riding on it is undeniably more exciting than just watching a random game. So for people that do break even in the long run, like this guy, it is more of a hobby than anything else. He isn't losing money, but he isn't making money, but he is at least getting some sort of thrill out of it.

Or something.

i hear you. he was more asking about capping every sport or just some sports so it sounded to me like he was trying to make money at it. otherwise for an action junkie, they play everything.

when you start talking, though, like you were about having to have action on a game and having to have action period, and the action being the important thing that is a slilppery slope. that is how people end up at GA with no house, wife or kids. i guess i am just wired different than most that gamble. i don't like watching what i bet on and only gamble on things to make money. i would rather play an OVC game in CBB that gets updated every 15 minutes on yahoo's page rather than the Duke/NC game just because it is on TV.

i actually thought it was an interesting question and analysis by the guy honestly.

[TommyGold]

FlyersFan, what is for you the minimum returns using flat stakes for NBA/NFL/NCAAF/NCAAB or NHL/MLB sports? I'm curious to have your take on this, it seems that you know your stuff.

actually what is poses is what i've said all along about gambling in general and most people on this site and every other site....it's a giant Fking waste of time for people to be doing this. all that work for 21Units....:dunno:

Knowing that in soccer 3Way markets you've usually to deal with 10% to 12% vig, against the usual 4,5% vig in pointspreads lines, having a profit of +21 units after 1000 units is quite an achievement, but considering the amount of juice involved in the normal US Sports markets, 21 units is quite dissapointing.

However, if you take a better look at the weekly record, you'll see an interesting fact: the first 1/8 was a little negative and the second 1/8 was a bloody mess. I already explained what happened during those 3 weeks, reaching almost -31 units in my first 250 units risked is not a fact that I'm proud of...

Now, the last 3/4 of the season, since I started doing NBA this season, show a very nice recovery, almost 52 units won for 760 picks, which is more standard to what is expected from anyone with an edge on US sports markets, where you should get +50 to +60 units won after each 1000 units risked.

I would think that all of your time could have been put to better use in some other areas of your life when you start talking about the "opportunity cost" of gambling. i took it up a few years ago and basically had a little fun with it for about 3-4 years but i really don't do much of it. i enjoy coming on this site and interacting when i can but time is better served elsewhere and not trying to pick a card in 9 different sports everyday like that IMO. I have made more than i've lost but i finally came to the realization over the last year that it doesn't come close to justifying the time spent doing it, and to think that you can do this for some miniscule time every day and win is selling it short.

i know to some it's "fun" but i would have to believe that there are better uses of time than sitting around looking at every single line on a daily basis. Even if it's just a 1/2 hour a day you spend x 365 days...you would have spent almost 12 normal 16 hour days out of your year doing this. for every guy who has a +100 unit season in a sport he will have an awful season to offset it. for every guy who does well in 1 sport he will give it back in another.

It depends on how you manage your bankroll. For example, my best sport is NBA and then college hoops, while NHL and football are recent new additions to my portfolio.

If I used a 1-3 stars rating system (1 star = 1 unit, 2 stars = 2 units...) for my plays in this way, risking 1* on football and NHL and NCAAB and NBA ML, risking 2* on college basketball totals and spreads and 3* on NBA totals and spreads, my record after 1008 picks would have +83.55 units won after 1734 units risked, yet my rate of return would fall a little short of the minimum 5% expected. But using flat stakes shows me where I can improve in the future or where I messed up... ;)

Yet one should bet bigger where has the best return and so far, since the start, NBA has show the best return, and after the first 258 picks, my NHL action has surpassed my NBA returns. Meanwhile, my college hoops totals and spreads returns since Nov. 23, 2009 are in line with what can expect in that market, but I can't say the same with the NFL or the NCAAB ML... Yet, overall, my last 760 picks show that I'm the right course, question is, will I be able to keep on track?

How many months or seasons will be needed to see if I've an edge or not on this market? That is a question that only Time can answer.

most people don't even make 21 units so props to you in all seriousness for making something over your 1008 posts in all those sports......:thumbs:

just my 2 cents....

Many thanks FlyersFan! :thumbs:

[Underdog88]

TommyGold- I for one commend your approach to making wagers, and although it's time consuming to analyze past wagers it definitely is beneficial. Good Job :thumbs: