Wild Card Discussion

[FlyersFan]

This might be the strangest wild card weekend i can remember. As i pointed out last week we could have up to 4 week 17 rematches and we got 3 of them. What makes it even more interesting is that all 3 matchups were absolute blow outs of the blowest of blowout proportions...lol.

PHI@DAL (-3 1/2 & 45).............from the files of tough to beat a team 3x in the regular season but the way DAL has played the last couple of weeks and how bad PHI looked on Sunday, i have no idea. I would lean under maybe, but honestly nothing would shock me in this game. I would expect a more competitive game, but PHI had everything to play for Sunday and went from a 1st round bye and a home game to a 6 seed and no hope for a home game, so not sure what the deal is honestly.

NYJ@CIN (-2 1/2 -125 & 34 1/2)...........CIN is sliding in the wrong direction. They have given up 105 points in the last 4 weeks, and 95 of those came versus Minnesota, San Diego and the Jets, all playoff teams. They have only scored more than 18 points 2x in their last 11 games and only twice scored more than 24 points in a game (45 versus chicago and 31 versus Green Bay). They have a ton of injuries and are 3-4 in their last 7 games. Normall i would say take the Bengals anyway and fade Sanchez who IMO has been awful for the most part of the last 2/3 of the season. But the Jets formula is running the football, safe passes and play defense. I don't read a lot into the 37-0 win as the Bengals were really playing grab ass football, but it does make it tough to lay points with them when their offense can't score points and they have injuries on the defensive side of the ball. I would honestly lean Under and probably like Under41 1/2 in a 2 team teaser with something else. I just haven't been a fan of my Bengals and the way they've played for about 6-8 weeks now. And the Jets enter as winners of 5 of 6 even if 2 of them were garbage free wins IMO. They have also won 4 of their L5 road games. One other disturbing CIN trend is the fact that they flat out can't score points after halftime. Starting with week 17 and working backwards (0, 14, 11, 3, 6, 3, 3, 9, 0, 14, 0). They have scored exactly 5 TD's in their L11 games in the 2H and been blanked 3 times. And that includes a grand total of 12 points in a 3 week stretch versus Detroit, Oakland and Cleveland, all of which were close competitive games (and they lost he OAK game). Really tough to back CIN IMO rookie QB or no rookie QB.

BAL@NE (-3 1/2 & 43)...............Wes Welker apparently has a torn MCL and ACL (and would have probably torn any other CL's if they were available to be torn) which i think changes the dynamics of the Pats offense. NE beat BAL 27-21 in like week 3 or 4 so these teams have some familiarity with one another. I still think it's tough to beat a Brady and Bellichick team on the road in the playoffs, but the Welker injury puts a little bit of a quirk into laying more than a FG. Lean Under here again. Flacko is pedestrian and BAL has only scored 78 points in their last 5 road games (about 15.5/game). I expect a conservative game plan and losing Welker takes a lot of steam out of the NEP offense. With that being said im sure it will be 458-451.

GB@ARI (-2 1/2 -115 & 48).....it's like the oddsmaker said lets make everything a FG and like 45 point total in all these games. No clue here honestly. GB is 7-1 in their L8 games but only 2 of those were over playoff teams (BAL and DAL) other than the blowout over ARI on Sunday 33-7. ARI is just 3-3 in their L6 games and did beat MIN but that was their ONLY win over a playoff team this year. Their win column is a who's who of teams that sucked ass for the most part (STL x 2, DET, CHI, SEA x2, NYG, JAX and HOU). In fact only 1 of those teams even had a winning record and they lost to the only other half way decent team in their division (SF) both times. I really have a hard time backing ARI today in this game honestly. I don't think it's too much to think that GB goes back to ARI and packs their lunch again for them. There will be a couple road upsets and this is one i think.

Road upsets always happen (usually a couple). I would rank them in this order of chance (just my opinion):

GB
NYJ
PHI
BAL

CIN doesn't score points and even if they win it won't be my much which means the NYJ will be in that game and when you're in the game and you can run the ball and play D you have a good shot. PHI I expect a better game from and DAL would have to beat them 3x which is tough, but not impossible. NEP will find a way to win that game even without Welker IMO. I am not a Flacko of seagulls fan.

probably won't be around much going forward but curious to see other's thoughts.

I like some teaser action using the Under41 1/2 in the NYJ/CIN game, GB +9 1/2 and possibly the Eagles.

[Daws1089]

good stuff flyersfan. Regarding DAL/PHI andy reid has never lost in the first round of the playoffs and Wade phillips has never won in the playoffs. I know Dallas has been playing great, there's no hiding that, but they were also playing great in 2007 and lost to the giants in their first playoff game. I know this yea ris different because Dallas has won their last few games convincingly and has looked really good. Eagles defense is very overrated, which I've thought for some time now. The secondary cannot cover WR, the LB/S can't cover TE. It's bad.

Also, I have a feeling the eagles didn't really throw everything they had at Dallas yesterday knowing that they might have to play them again this week. They barely blitzed which is unlike them and their offense looked very vanilla. So I anticipate the Eagles to bring a lot more next week in all areas of the game. Now you may argue that the eagles had so much on the line how couldn't they bring everything they had? Well I think Dallas had revenge on the mind from last year's last game where Phila won 44-6 and are just simply playing better football right now. It's tough to argue, but the eagles knew it wasn't the end of the world if they lost yesterday because they would have another shot at dallas to redeem themselves and bring all of their weapons. It is discouraging to see the eagles roll over with a 2 seed on the line. Tough to pick the winner here, but 3.5 has me leaning dallas.

GB's defense is nasty and I think it will be hard for AZ to turn it on again next week.

NYJ are playing so well against the run right now and consequently that is Cincy's forte. That's without even mentioning Revis to shutdown whoever you put him on whether it be Reggie Wayne, Ochocinco, or whoever. The guy is as good as it gets at coverage. Again, it's a tough pick, but I lean NYJ.

Originally I thought Baltimore may be able to pull that upset because NE is just terrible on D. You scheme it up all you want to hide your weaknesses, but I can see Baltimore just pounded the **** out of run and then air it out later. Brady has won important games before with limited WR, but he still has Moss which could be enough to keep pace with Balt. Another tough game to pick.

[Underdog88]

Oh man I'm so glad this thread is here. Great thoughts by both:thumbs:


FF- Interesting thoughts on the Bengals. I've watched my share of Jets games this season and honestly I wasn't impressed. However it does seem like the Bengals really coasted the last couple weeks and lost plenty of defensive players. Would think this game stays very close and whoever has the most success on the ground/ kicking game wins. Low total for playoffs but I won't be rushing to play the over....


Bal/NE I disagree completely on the under. No doubt Welker out hurts the Pats offense, but the Pats will plug Edelman or whatever his name is to play the role. Welker only had 5 catches in the first matchup, which was his first game back off injury. Let's not forget this is Belichek who always seems to get max potential out of every player. God I hate that ****er but the Ravens may still get thrown all over. Balty faced some good offenses that were above average on the road, and they let up 23@pitt, 27@GB, 33@ Minny, 27@NE, 26 @sd. The Ravens were able to run all over the Pats in the first meeting averaging 6.8 ypc, and were in a tough spot (Pats coming off road loss). Rice & MmmmKayhee should be able to get some yardage on the ground here imo. I don't think Flacco is the greatest, but he can make the plays. I have a hard time seeing either team getting held under 20pts, so naturally I think the over is a great play.

[Underdog88]

Eagles defense is very overrated, which I've thought for some time now. The secondary cannot cover WR, the LB/S can't cover TE. It's bad.

Biggest concern for me, as I'm considering backing the Eagles. Witten is good enough to kill Philly if they don't pay extra attention to him. Pay extra attention to him, and the run game could hurt them. My thing is I can't see the Boys just shutting down the Eagles offense once again. Maybe they do, as -they allowed o pts allowed yesterday and 16 in last meeting. In between the Eagles scored at least 23 in 7 straight. I smell a shootout. Philly team total is going to be 20.5, which looks pretty damn good to me as well.




I think I am going to be in the minority here, but I think the Cardinals beat the Pack.

[Franchise]

UD - I agree on your thoughts on the BAL/NE total. Baltimore has had problems in coverage and it would be just like NE to come out in 5 wide and throw on every play like they did to Minnesota a couple of years ago. The no huddle would reduce the impact of guys like Gregg and Naghata. Also this is the perfect spot for Moss since he will definitely get some chances deep and Baltimore has taken a ton of PI's this year. And if they try and take Moss out of the game then Brady will pick apart the rest of the secondary, IMO. Plus NE's D is obviously down so Baltimore should be able to score with them as they will have to abandon their run first, second and third offense if they get down 7-10 points early. I like NE and the over. I'll have some thoughts on the other games later.

[Daws1089]

I would like to hear your reasoning for AZ Udog. I know GB has given up tons of points on the road this year.

[Daws1089]

The more I think about it, the eagles line seems off. The eagles had something to play for on sunday, unlike AZ and CIN and they still got destroyed. Yet, the oddsmakers come back with almost the same line? That tells me they are not very confident in dallas. Also, the public now knows about dallas only giving up 17 pts over the last 3 games of the season as well PHI only scoring 16 in the first matchup paired with the 0 on sunday. Dallas has scored 44 pts combined in the two matchups, yet the total comes out at 45? Seem like they are inviting an under bet.

If you look at desean jacksons numbers this yr against the cowboys they are not good. Apparently DAL is the only team who realizes that you need to jam him at the line of scrimmage and then double him over the top because it really has frustrated him and pretty much made him not a factor. Jenkins and Newman will most likely bring more of this on saturday so its going to be someone else who beats the cowboys or the eagles will need to use Jackson in other ways like reverses or maybe he can make an impact on special teams.

[gadfly36]

didnt find the info since 05, but until then teams are 11-6 going for a 3rd straight win, which surprised me because i really thought it was the other way. in my opinion i think the only dog who has a chaance to win this week is baltimore due to the welker injury. dallas dominated phillie at home and their at home again, green bay beat arizonas second team but when their first team comes out it'll be another story, as for ne they are playing possibly the best defense in the nfl without there no. 1 guy. below are stats i found on the net.


Since the merger, there have been 17 instances of a team trying to beat another team thrice in a season. In 11 of those cases, the team succeeded. Teams, like this year's Cowboys, who have the better record and were therefore playing at home, are 9-3 when trying to beat a team three times in a season. Here's the data:

+------+-------+-----------+-------+-----------+-----+-------+
| year | team1 | t1_record | team2 | t2_record | loc | score |
+------+-------+-----------+-------+-----------+-----+-------+
| 2004 | GNB | 10-6-0 | MIN | 8-8-0 | H | 17-31 |
| 2004 | STL | 8-8-0 | SEA | 9-7-0 | R | 27-20 |
| 2002 | PIT | 10-5-1 | CLE | 9-7-0 | H | 36-33 |
| 2000 | NYG | 12-4-0 | PHI | 11-5-0 | H | 20-10 |
| 1999 | TEN | 13-3-0 | JAX | 14-2-0 | R | 33-14 |
| 1998 | DAL | 10-6-0 | ARI | 9-7-0 | H | 7-20 |
| 1997 | NWE | 10-6-0 | MIA | 9-7-0 | H | 17-3 |
| 1997 | GNB | 13-3-0 | TAM | 10-6-0 | H | 21-7 |
| 1994 | PIT | 12-4-0 | CLE | 11-5-0 | H | 29-9 |
| 1994 | MIN | 10-6-0 | CHI | 9-7-0 | H | 18-35 |
| 1993 | RAI | 10-6-0 | DEN | 9-7-0 | H | 42-24 |
| 1992 | KAN | 10-6-0 | SDG | 11-5-0 | R | 0-17 |
| 1991 | KAN | 10-6-0 | RAI | 9-7-0 | H | 10-6 |
| 1989 | HOU | 9-7-0 | PIT | 9-7-0 | H | 23-26 |
| 1986 | NYG | 14-2-0 | WAS | 12-4-0 | H | 17-0 |
| 1983 | SEA | 9-7-0 | RAI | 12-4-0 | R | 14-30 |
| 1982 | MIA | 7-2-0 | NYJ | 6-3-0 | H | 14-0 |

[FlyersFan]

Woodson is a big Q for GB on Sunday which makes them a big Q now IMO....(not Q-unit, just a big Q)...but i have 1 question for the AZ lovers and backers this week....

who has ARI beaten besides a sliding MIN team this season? go back and check out their wins that i posted. Where is the impressive victory. To me, they had 4 free wins in an awful division and really did nothing to impress me this season. They aren't going to sneak up on anyone this year either. I expect a competitive game but Green Bay has every bit the weapons ARI has on offense if not more (they have a much better TE and i will take Driver, Jennings and Jones plus Grant no problem) and they have the better defense.

Also, if the NE/BAL game is an over, then why is the line set at 43? Oddsmakers know everything we know and they i am pretty sure are aware of the earlier game seeing 48 points. If you are going to talk about what the Ravens allowed, then you have to talk about what they scored on the road too. 78 points in their last 5 road games or 15.5PPG basically. And yes the Pats can plug in Edelweis, but i think it's really a knock and selling Welker short to think you replace one of the game's best route runners, quickest receivers and the leader in receptions. He is not as good as Welker, end of story. I am not sold on that game going Over by any stretch of the imagination. And Randy Moss is a deep threat, not a good route runner...big difference. Losing Welker does not automatically make Moss a better option. They can now focus on Moss and lets face it, Moss is not the kind of guy who will work extra hard to shake free. NE has a bad defense but i don't think the Ravens will take much advantage of it. Also ONLY 1 TIME in their last 11 games have the Ravens had a game total end up over 43. And that was a 48-3 win over Detroit. Also, BAL has scored 144 points in their L8 games (threw out the DET game) which is roughly 18 PPG. Not necessarily looking Under as a great play, but there are a lot of factors that are being ignored on this game as far as the total IMO.

[Daws1089]

Same can be said for the Eagles when talking about who have they beaten. Eagles have no wins against playoff teams this season and 4 of their 5 losses were to playoff teams.

Sorry for so much eagles talk, but thats who i follow

[Underdog88]

Also ONLY 1 TIME in their last 11 games have the Ravens had a game total end up over 43. .

Oddsmakers know this too. No doubt Welker is better then edelman, I'm just saying I think they can still move the ball. I think this over and the Philly over are my two favorite totals, been wrong before...

[FlyersFan]

Same can be said for the Eagles when talking about who have they beaten. Eagles have no wins against playoff teams this season and 4 of their 5 losses were to playoff teams.

Sorry for so much eagles talk, but thats who i follow

hey daws, first off talk all the eagles you want. Second, maybe the same CAN be said for PHI. The problem was there were a lot of **** teams in the league so everyone had a lot of **** wins, but they were 0-2 versus DAL, they lost to SDG on the road and got blown out by New Orleans at home. PHI put up a lot of points versus garbage defenses this year honestly. And i don't buy into that they "just didn't want to show a lot" versus DAL. If they had beaten DAL they would have had to have played 1 less game, had a bye week and opened with a home game with the possibility of a second if New Orleans had lost. You can't tell me they just went in and didnt' really care. They got their ASS handed to them plain and simple. Now whether DAL can do that again i don't know, but im trying to figure out how the Eagles are now 21 points better than they were 7 days ago to cover that number. Plus these 2 teams are very familiar with one another which makes it even more interesting. I think if Witten has a big game then DAL wins this. If the eagles can shut down Witten then i think that will make Romo a lot more uncomfortable as his only other option is Austin. Which may lead to some turnovers. The Eagles have given up 102 points in their L4 games which is not very impressive if you ask me. Udog may be onto something when he thinks looking at the Over. It is interesting when you've seen 2 games so far with 36 and 24 points and they set a total at 45?????

Honestly, all these teams have big quesiton marks IMO. This is a tough slate of games if you ask me.

And the more i look at CIN the more worried i get. They have 1 solid chance and that is to stack the box with 8 guys and be able to negate the Jets running game on the early downs. Stinkchez has been at his worst this year when they have to put the game in his hands and the Bengals have 2 VERY solid corners. If they can stick the NYJ in a lot of 3rd and longs, i really like the Bengals chances. Jets have a very solid O-line and the bengals have injuries so just not sure.

My initial best play is NYJ/CIN Under 41 1/2 & GB +9 1/2 (-130) in a 7 point teaser.

[FlyersFan]

Oddsmakers know this too. No doubt Welker is better then edelman, I'm just saying I think they can still move the ball. I think this over and the Philly over are my two favorite totals, been wrong before...

i am liking the PHI Over the more i look at the numbers.

Also really liking the NYJ Under41 1/2 in a teaser. If that game sees 42+ points with all the running and defense in that game i would be beyond shocked. The Bengals have only scored 18+ in 2 of L11 games as i mentioned. I think the Under34 1/2 is also a great play. Low line but seriously, i could see a 7-3 halftime score and a 16-10 final without much trouble.

[Q-Unit]

I can't cap for shyt, but I may just go with teams that show they can run the ball and play D:

Teams that qualify:

Baltimore
NY Jets
Dallas
Green Bay

- Arizona is so up and down, and people are waiting for them to go on that playoff run like last year, but that may not happen? I mean Green Bay struggles on the road, but at risk of sounding like an ESPN ANALyst, this IS the playoffs, and Ryan Grant has come on strong of late. The Super Bowl jinx hit Pitt hard, Arizona may not be far behind, but they do play good D. Running is another adventure, fumbles galore to be had, Edge had one last burst in him last postseason, but they do have fresher legs this time around, who knows.

- New England is too inconsistent on the ground, although Sammy Morris IMO is more rock solid than Maroney, who has to be hated by Belichick by now with all his timely fumbles. Morris could be = Antwain Smith of years back, just solid, nothing more. I agree that Engelman will fill in nicely for Welker, if not same production, enough to take pressure off of Moss. But Baltimore has been through the gauntlet all year, they've lost some close close games to some good teams, I always thought they'd be a handful if they get in.

- Cincinnati was one of best run D this season and Jets exposed them. But it did seem like they were trying for 3/4 of the game, so I wonder if they will reverse fortunes come this weekend. Benson's return could make a difference, and if one of the WRs would actually catch the ball for the Bengals, they could come out with a win vs the Jets. The Jets have a great D, as long as they protect Sanchez, they will obviously win. I just have a funny feeling Bengals sneak this one out.

- Philadelphia worries me as a Cowboys fan. All those 3 times in a season means nothing more than doubt that creeps into your head, and sometimes thats all you need to crap the bed. But I think the Boys are tired of the negative media, and will need to keep this train they are on riding. I did think it was weird as much on the line as Philly had, they didnt blitz as much. I mean I understand they know they could be facing boys again so they didnt show much? but the 2nd seed was right there, and in my book folks (to quote Lang lol), 3 playoff games with 3 chances to lose is worse than only 2. and all at home. Just saying.

IMO if the late Jim Johnson (R.I.P.) was still running the D, he wouldn't have hesitated to blitz a lot more yesterday, he's got all sorts of packages as it is.

just my thoughts

[Q-Unit]

Dallas gets RT Marc Columbo back, but I am curious as to how much they will play him? the back up, I forget his name, Doug Free or something has filled in admirably, and I wonder if the coaches will want to keep continuity on the line for the foreseeable future, but its an embarrassment of riches to have quality depth on the line in that regard.

Roy Williams is a bust, sucks ass, and has lost all confidence from Romo, he will throw it to him 2-3 times by default, and he'll drop 2 of those passes. If they wrap up Witten, they will go to Phillips the backup TE who has played solid, but is no Witten. That is if they rattle Romo. I see them going to the run game just as much if not more this game. They have waited for so long for Felix Jones to be healthy and running fast/strong. The Boys have an elite running game, but how much they commit to it has been subject to criticism all year.

That being said, I do not feel good about this game at all, the Eagles are still one of the more explosive teams if not the most this season. Donovan is healthy, how long can they hold down DeSean Jackson (there were at least 2 deep passes that barely missed his hands), and Celek would be the best TE in the conference if not for Witten's consistent production.

The blitzes will come a lot more this game from the Eagles, so if Dallas/Garrett arent stupid, they will keep running those draws they are so good at, keep dumping off those screens that worked mildly well, and occasionally take shots deep.

On D, they will need DE Spencer to continue to get to the QB, as double teams are always directed at DeMarcus Ware. Keith Brooking has surprised me this year with his emotional value, and some of his pass coverages are pretty damn good.

That being said, I completely agree with FF, and think this game will go over. It will be a good defensive game, but there will be some deep connections, and I feel like at least one special teams score from either team to push that over. It's gonna be a shootout folks! (channeling my inner-Lang again)