This might be the strangest wild card weekend i can remember. As i pointed out last week we could have up to 4 week 17 rematches and we got 3 of them. What makes it even more interesting is that all 3 matchups were absolute blow outs of the blowest of blowout proportions...lol.
PHI@DAL (-3 1/2 & 45).............from the files of tough to beat a team 3x in the regular season but the way DAL has played the last couple of weeks and how bad PHI looked on Sunday, i have no idea. I would lean under maybe, but honestly nothing would shock me in this game. I would expect a more competitive game, but PHI had everything to play for Sunday and went from a 1st round bye and a home game to a 6 seed and no hope for a home game, so not sure what the deal is honestly.
NYJ@CIN (-2 1/2 -125 & 34 1/2)...........CIN is sliding in the wrong direction. They have given up 105 points in the last 4 weeks, and 95 of those came versus Minnesota, San Diego and the Jets, all playoff teams. They have only scored more than 18 points 2x in their last 11 games and only twice scored more than 24 points in a game (45 versus chicago and 31 versus Green Bay). They have a ton of injuries and are 3-4 in their last 7 games. Normall i would say take the Bengals anyway and fade Sanchez who IMO has been awful for the most part of the last 2/3 of the season. But the Jets formula is running the football, safe passes and play defense. I don't read a lot into the 37-0 win as the Bengals were really playing grab ass football, but it does make it tough to lay points with them when their offense can't score points and they have injuries on the defensive side of the ball. I would honestly lean Under and probably like Under41 1/2 in a 2 team teaser with something else. I just haven't been a fan of my Bengals and the way they've played for about 6-8 weeks now. And the Jets enter as winners of 5 of 6 even if 2 of them were garbage free wins IMO. They have also won 4 of their L5 road games. One other disturbing CIN trend is the fact that they flat out can't score points after halftime. Starting with week 17 and working backwards (0, 14, 11, 3, 6, 3, 3, 9, 0, 14, 0). They have scored exactly 5 TD's in their L11 games in the 2H and been blanked 3 times. And that includes a grand total of 12 points in a 3 week stretch versus Detroit, Oakland and Cleveland, all of which were close competitive games (and they lost he OAK game). Really tough to back CIN IMO rookie QB or no rookie QB.
BAL@NE (-3 1/2 & 43)...............Wes Welker apparently has a torn MCL and ACL (and would have probably torn any other CL's if they were available to be torn) which i think changes the dynamics of the Pats offense. NE beat BAL 27-21 in like week 3 or 4 so these teams have some familiarity with one another. I still think it's tough to beat a Brady and Bellichick team on the road in the playoffs, but the Welker injury puts a little bit of a quirk into laying more than a FG. Lean Under here again. Flacko is pedestrian and BAL has only scored 78 points in their last 5 road games (about 15.5/game). I expect a conservative game plan and losing Welker takes a lot of steam out of the NEP offense. With that being said im sure it will be 458-451.
GB@ARI (-2 1/2 -115 & 48).....it's like the oddsmaker said lets make everything a FG and like 45 point total in all these games. No clue here honestly. GB is 7-1 in their L8 games but only 2 of those were over playoff teams (BAL and DAL) other than the blowout over ARI on Sunday 33-7. ARI is just 3-3 in their L6 games and did beat MIN but that was their ONLY win over a playoff team this year. Their win column is a who's who of teams that sucked ass for the most part (STL x 2, DET, CHI, SEA x2, NYG, JAX and HOU). In fact only 1 of those teams even had a winning record and they lost to the only other half way decent team in their division (SF) both times. I really have a hard time backing ARI today in this game honestly. I don't think it's too much to think that GB goes back to ARI and packs their lunch again for them. There will be a couple road upsets and this is one i think.
Road upsets always happen (usually a couple). I would rank them in this order of chance (just my opinion):
GB
NYJ
PHI
BAL
CIN doesn't score points and even if they win it won't be my much which means the NYJ will be in that game and when you're in the game and you can run the ball and play D you have a good shot. PHI I expect a better game from and DAL would have to beat them 3x which is tough, but not impossible. NEP will find a way to win that game even without Welker IMO. I am not a Flacko of seagulls fan.
probably won't be around much going forward but curious to see other's thoughts.
I like some teaser action using the Under41 1/2 in the NYJ/CIN game, GB +9 1/2 and possibly the Eagles.
PHI@DAL (-3 1/2 & 45).............from the files of tough to beat a team 3x in the regular season but the way DAL has played the last couple of weeks and how bad PHI looked on Sunday, i have no idea. I would lean under maybe, but honestly nothing would shock me in this game. I would expect a more competitive game, but PHI had everything to play for Sunday and went from a 1st round bye and a home game to a 6 seed and no hope for a home game, so not sure what the deal is honestly.
NYJ@CIN (-2 1/2 -125 & 34 1/2)...........CIN is sliding in the wrong direction. They have given up 105 points in the last 4 weeks, and 95 of those came versus Minnesota, San Diego and the Jets, all playoff teams. They have only scored more than 18 points 2x in their last 11 games and only twice scored more than 24 points in a game (45 versus chicago and 31 versus Green Bay). They have a ton of injuries and are 3-4 in their last 7 games. Normall i would say take the Bengals anyway and fade Sanchez who IMO has been awful for the most part of the last 2/3 of the season. But the Jets formula is running the football, safe passes and play defense. I don't read a lot into the 37-0 win as the Bengals were really playing grab ass football, but it does make it tough to lay points with them when their offense can't score points and they have injuries on the defensive side of the ball. I would honestly lean Under and probably like Under41 1/2 in a 2 team teaser with something else. I just haven't been a fan of my Bengals and the way they've played for about 6-8 weeks now. And the Jets enter as winners of 5 of 6 even if 2 of them were garbage free wins IMO. They have also won 4 of their L5 road games. One other disturbing CIN trend is the fact that they flat out can't score points after halftime. Starting with week 17 and working backwards (0, 14, 11, 3, 6, 3, 3, 9, 0, 14, 0). They have scored exactly 5 TD's in their L11 games in the 2H and been blanked 3 times. And that includes a grand total of 12 points in a 3 week stretch versus Detroit, Oakland and Cleveland, all of which were close competitive games (and they lost he OAK game). Really tough to back CIN IMO rookie QB or no rookie QB.
BAL@NE (-3 1/2 & 43)...............Wes Welker apparently has a torn MCL and ACL (and would have probably torn any other CL's if they were available to be torn) which i think changes the dynamics of the Pats offense. NE beat BAL 27-21 in like week 3 or 4 so these teams have some familiarity with one another. I still think it's tough to beat a Brady and Bellichick team on the road in the playoffs, but the Welker injury puts a little bit of a quirk into laying more than a FG. Lean Under here again. Flacko is pedestrian and BAL has only scored 78 points in their last 5 road games (about 15.5/game). I expect a conservative game plan and losing Welker takes a lot of steam out of the NEP offense. With that being said im sure it will be 458-451.
GB@ARI (-2 1/2 -115 & 48).....it's like the oddsmaker said lets make everything a FG and like 45 point total in all these games. No clue here honestly. GB is 7-1 in their L8 games but only 2 of those were over playoff teams (BAL and DAL) other than the blowout over ARI on Sunday 33-7. ARI is just 3-3 in their L6 games and did beat MIN but that was their ONLY win over a playoff team this year. Their win column is a who's who of teams that sucked ass for the most part (STL x 2, DET, CHI, SEA x2, NYG, JAX and HOU). In fact only 1 of those teams even had a winning record and they lost to the only other half way decent team in their division (SF) both times. I really have a hard time backing ARI today in this game honestly. I don't think it's too much to think that GB goes back to ARI and packs their lunch again for them. There will be a couple road upsets and this is one i think.
Road upsets always happen (usually a couple). I would rank them in this order of chance (just my opinion):
GB
NYJ
PHI
BAL
CIN doesn't score points and even if they win it won't be my much which means the NYJ will be in that game and when you're in the game and you can run the ball and play D you have a good shot. PHI I expect a better game from and DAL would have to beat them 3x which is tough, but not impossible. NEP will find a way to win that game even without Welker IMO. I am not a Flacko of seagulls fan.
probably won't be around much going forward but curious to see other's thoughts.
I like some teaser action using the Under41 1/2 in the NYJ/CIN game, GB +9 1/2 and possibly the Eagles.
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