Daws1089's Week 15 Plays

[Daws1089]

ytd is terrible. I should have it up before sunday


Jags +3 +110

2 units


I just had to with the plus odds. I think this game goes under too, but i'm trying to limit my plays with the way i've been picking this season. I hope JAX brings everything they've got... Or maybe the public will just rape again.

[Daws1089]

who makes these lines anymore? Seems like the majority of favs are covering every week so how is vegas making out on this if it continues to happen week after week? Is it just me or is it just really hard to figure lines out this year? I know the public doesn't lose all the time, but the games where they are just all over one side like 70% or more they are killing it. I need to be more like them.

[Stifler's Mom]

The public is definitely having a good year on NFL this year, generally speaking. With the lack of parity, teams like Indy (and others) just keep winning/covering in spots that historically would be ones where the public would be trapped big time by low lines and them not doing so. San Diego catching 3.5 at Dallas last week and winning outright is another prime example. Public was like 87% on San Diego in that game. It was just about every square's top play, and the books never wavered. That's a situation where the books are gonna be on the right side 90% of the time, and in most cases a cover by that dog will be a "lucky" one, for lack of a better term. Sort of like SF capitalizing on 7 Arizona turnovers Monday night. No way they win that game with an even turnover ratio, IMO. But, as this season would have it, SD makes an early goal line stand, amongst other things, takes control of the game, and wins outright.

Honestly, I believe it's been heading this way for probably the last 3 seasons, although I think this year it's most obvious. Some teams are just so ****ty this year and rarely ever cover. Detroit was like this last year. Going against Cleveland, st louis, etc has practically been free money for the public every week. They use the old "the Rams suck" and "the Browns suck" capping style that normally results in them reloading their account with a confused look on their faces, and it's working this year.

So yea, when you have the public cashing with Indy, SD, etc every week, and cashing against Cleveland, st Louis etc every week, they're already starting off with a plate full of winners pretty much automatically, making it tough to not cone out ahead.

Public cleaned house in baseball this year too. It happens. But NFL has historically been a good sport for the books, so my guess is that adjustments will be made at some point, just like when they were cleaning house with NE 2 years ago and the books had finally had enough and then NE failed to cover a game the rest of the year.

Just gotta stick to whatever it is you believe is the best way to handicap the games IMO, and keep making choices you are comfortable with and believe in. JMO....

[Daws1089]

thanks for the advice stif


Cowboys +7.5

2 units

why so low is saints are unstoppable and dallas is a blunder in december?

[Daws1089]

Steelers -3 +100
Titans -4.5

2 units each

i think this is the time to back pitt with this line. Public is so high on GB despite their **** road sched and play. Also, I will take tennessee to win against the dolphins who haven't done much of anything on the road this year, now they are going to win back to back road games? not uh.

[Daws1089]

ytd:21-39-1 -39.6 units


updating my record so I don't get yelled at for not posting my losing record this season:beerbang:

[Underdog88]

ytd:21-39-1 -39.6 units


updating my record so I don't get yelled at for not posting my losing record this season:beerbang:

I'm surprised I haven't gotten called out. lost track of 3 sports- I had a losing record posted in at least one of them. :beerbang: