Discussions this season have been seriously lacking, I will take some blame for not contributing as much. Been a crazy year for me, but it's time to finish strong. It's getting down to must win situations for many teams, but that doesn't mean they win.....
Homedogs first
Jaguars vs Colts
Bills+7 vs Pats
Rams+??? vs Texans
Lions+??? vs Zona
Panthers+7 vs Minny
Redskins+3 vs Giants
Waiting to see what that Jags line will be. Been backing Indy for the past 5 weeks and they have been good to me, but I would be very wary here. Jags let me down big time vs Miami, and were completely ineffective offensively. I'm not sure the Colts will be able to contain Jones-Drew as well as the Fins did. Jaguars now likely need to win out to make the playoffs, but I believe hold the best conference record among wildcard teams. I would think they come out fired up after their 5 game home win streak just got snapped. I would expect a shorter line this week as the Colts really have nothing to play for- save the undefeated season. I get the feeling that this will be a 3.5 or so, and you'll likely need a Jags su win to cover.
The Bills at home catching 7 after a su win @ KC. Though they won, they looked pretty bad doing so. Fitz was ineffective as hell. In reality, KC should have won the game, Chambers dropped a gimme pass that would have put them into scoring position for the win. The Patriots are off a rather uninspiring win themselves, where the Panthers did a great job shutting down the offense. It's obvious that the Pats team is not what it once was, but i do think they are still light years ahead of the Bills team that will be taking the field on Sunday. The Pats now need to keep the lead in the AFC East, this is a crucial game to them IMO. After being shut down, I am very leery of MR Moss. He has killed the Bills ever since he came to NE, and we don't have the secondary to stop him and Welker (IMO top 5 wr in the game). How the hell is Welker always open? Buffalo will need to have an effective run game, and control TOP if they want to be in this one. Not sure which Fitz plays sunday. Bills do have revenge angle bvut that can only take you so far....
I really haven't watched enough of the Rams to make too many observations, but I don't think I want to back them ever. The Texans are such a jeckyll/Hyde team, I don't trust them at all. Houston will likely be laying 7, I'll leave this one to someone else to talk about....
Let me start by saying I love Arizona. My season has been saved by Zona plays, been wrong one time (blowout loss vs Indy) and have hit 7 dog MLs backing/fading them. Arizona off a loss to SF, suddenly they pretty much only have a one game lead over SF (as SF would hold the tie breaker if they ended up with identical records). Zona @DET, vs STL then vs GB. SF @Philly, vs DET, @STL so really Zona would have to have an epic choke to lose the division. I don't think that happens at all. Detroit is just what the doctor ordered for Arizona's offense, which couldn't hold on to the ball last night. I would think they return to form vs a Lions D that can't stop anyone. After all the fumbles, I'm not sure if Hightower or Wells will get more touches, but either way I think they run all over Detroit. Looking at Arizona's season they have fared well after a loss, and I would have a strong lean to the over as well. This offense is too high powered to not produce after an embarrassing 9 pt effort. Lean Zona-pts, but bigger lean to team total over.
The Panthers are off a loss @NE, where the defense showed up but the offense couldn't do dick. Despite forcing 3 turnovers the Panthers couldn't put points up. One reason was their abysmal 3-13 on 3rd down. Another could be the fact that they only attempted 24 rushes! Really? This is a team that's having serious qb issues, has arguably the most talented rb tandem, and they run the ball just 24 times? They averaged over 5 ypc too. I don't understand the playcalling there, but running the ball is going to be tough vs Minny this week. One thing I will say is that Minny has played a cupcake road schedule. Only tough teams were @GB, @Zona , @Pitt and they went 1-2 those games. I'm not too sure I would back a team-7 on the road with those results. Also really do the Vikings have much to play for?
The Skins overcame what I thought could be a letdown spot last week by beating Oakland rather convincingly. This coming off 3 straight losses of 3 pts or less. The Giants lost in a shootout to Philly. How do you lay chalk with a team on the road that has beaten two teams all season with a winning record? Lean Skins, but you'll need a su win to cover in all liklihood, which the Skins have had trouble doing in close games all season....
Homedogs first
Jaguars vs Colts
Bills+7 vs Pats
Rams+??? vs Texans
Lions+??? vs Zona
Panthers+7 vs Minny
Redskins+3 vs Giants
Waiting to see what that Jags line will be. Been backing Indy for the past 5 weeks and they have been good to me, but I would be very wary here. Jags let me down big time vs Miami, and were completely ineffective offensively. I'm not sure the Colts will be able to contain Jones-Drew as well as the Fins did. Jaguars now likely need to win out to make the playoffs, but I believe hold the best conference record among wildcard teams. I would think they come out fired up after their 5 game home win streak just got snapped. I would expect a shorter line this week as the Colts really have nothing to play for- save the undefeated season. I get the feeling that this will be a 3.5 or so, and you'll likely need a Jags su win to cover.
The Bills at home catching 7 after a su win @ KC. Though they won, they looked pretty bad doing so. Fitz was ineffective as hell. In reality, KC should have won the game, Chambers dropped a gimme pass that would have put them into scoring position for the win. The Patriots are off a rather uninspiring win themselves, where the Panthers did a great job shutting down the offense. It's obvious that the Pats team is not what it once was, but i do think they are still light years ahead of the Bills team that will be taking the field on Sunday. The Pats now need to keep the lead in the AFC East, this is a crucial game to them IMO. After being shut down, I am very leery of MR Moss. He has killed the Bills ever since he came to NE, and we don't have the secondary to stop him and Welker (IMO top 5 wr in the game). How the hell is Welker always open? Buffalo will need to have an effective run game, and control TOP if they want to be in this one. Not sure which Fitz plays sunday. Bills do have revenge angle bvut that can only take you so far....
I really haven't watched enough of the Rams to make too many observations, but I don't think I want to back them ever. The Texans are such a jeckyll/Hyde team, I don't trust them at all. Houston will likely be laying 7, I'll leave this one to someone else to talk about....
Let me start by saying I love Arizona. My season has been saved by Zona plays, been wrong one time (blowout loss vs Indy) and have hit 7 dog MLs backing/fading them. Arizona off a loss to SF, suddenly they pretty much only have a one game lead over SF (as SF would hold the tie breaker if they ended up with identical records). Zona @DET, vs STL then vs GB. SF @Philly, vs DET, @STL so really Zona would have to have an epic choke to lose the division. I don't think that happens at all. Detroit is just what the doctor ordered for Arizona's offense, which couldn't hold on to the ball last night. I would think they return to form vs a Lions D that can't stop anyone. After all the fumbles, I'm not sure if Hightower or Wells will get more touches, but either way I think they run all over Detroit. Looking at Arizona's season they have fared well after a loss, and I would have a strong lean to the over as well. This offense is too high powered to not produce after an embarrassing 9 pt effort. Lean Zona-pts, but bigger lean to team total over.
The Panthers are off a loss @NE, where the defense showed up but the offense couldn't do dick. Despite forcing 3 turnovers the Panthers couldn't put points up. One reason was their abysmal 3-13 on 3rd down. Another could be the fact that they only attempted 24 rushes! Really? This is a team that's having serious qb issues, has arguably the most talented rb tandem, and they run the ball just 24 times? They averaged over 5 ypc too. I don't understand the playcalling there, but running the ball is going to be tough vs Minny this week. One thing I will say is that Minny has played a cupcake road schedule. Only tough teams were @GB, @Zona , @Pitt and they went 1-2 those games. I'm not too sure I would back a team-7 on the road with those results. Also really do the Vikings have much to play for?
The Skins overcame what I thought could be a letdown spot last week by beating Oakland rather convincingly. This coming off 3 straight losses of 3 pts or less. The Giants lost in a shootout to Philly. How do you lay chalk with a team on the road that has beaten two teams all season with a winning record? Lean Skins, but you'll need a su win to cover in all liklihood, which the Skins have had trouble doing in close games all season....
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