Week 14 Discussion

[Daws1089]

Discussion has been lacking in the nfl and it is an integral part of picking games. I've been struggling lately so I think I need to get some different opinions and perspectives on games to help right the ship.


Pitt -10

Come I know CLE sucks, but what the hell has PITT done to deserve a 10 pt road fav line? Losers of 4 in a row to teams like OAK, KC, BAL, and CIN. You have to go back to a month ago before you will see the last game the Steelers won. Clearly their secondary has issues when Palomalu doesn't play. They cannot be nearly as creative and complex when Carter plays. Cle has sucked all season long, but they did put up 23 pts last week against a decent SD team. Their offense atleast looked alive unlike earlier this year at times. It's a division game so mean CLE has that going for them, but I'm having issues finding any other reason to take besides PITT not deserving the line.


WASH -1

WASH has had a tough schedule as of late going up against DAL,PHI, and NO. I think this will ultimately prepare them for a win on sunday @ OAK. OAK off a big win at PITT, but I think WASH's defense should be able to limit OAK on offense. Campbell playing much better lately too.


I think Dallas is the right side in that game against SD. Throwing SD out there as a dog after the run they have been on is asking for SD money. The public will remember dallas' loss last week and Romo's lack of success in December, but Dallas has the tools to win this game. Books don't want us to take Dallas imo.

[Bacon]

The WASH -1 line jumped out at me too, I guessed it was going to be much higher. I guess Vegas still counts WAS as a scrub team even though they've been playing a lot better lately. They should have beat the Saints if not for a series of lucky breaks in the last few minutes and OT.

[Stifler's Mom]

I suspect a letdown of titanic proportions for Washington this week.

Oakland on the other hand has been playing decent since changing QB's (finally, it only took them what, 2 years to figure out Russell blows?), and at least not giving games away.

I think everyone will be looking at that game like you said, thinking the team that should have beaten the Saints should easily beat horrible Oakland, but to me the line is looking for Washington money.

Tough to take the Raiderettes needing the SU win to cash though, lol

[Underdog88]

I suspect a letdown of titanic proportions for Washington this week.

I agree there. Not sure if I will be backing the Raiders, but I do think that this could be a huge letdown. I don't think the Skins have enough firepower in the run game to exploit the Raiders. Raiders also in a letdown type spot, which is my concern.

[recovering77]

Daws, let me throw my opinions on those 2 games.

Washington/Oakland:
Both teams coming in with a lot of momentum. Washington has covered 4 in a row, but are losers of 3 in a row. Oakland is coming off SU wins vs. Cincy and Pitt in the past 3 weeks. The skins look like the public pick to me. They have played consistently well ever since the second half of the ATL game. Oakland has had better highs IMO, but I don't think they've played well 2 weeks in a row for years. After the Cincy game, Oakland looked like they couldn't even move the ball on Thanksgiving against Dallas. If I lean, I take Oakland because the tiebreaking factor might be the East going West theory. I lean more on an UNDER. Oakland has not played 2 consecutive overs all year, Skins have played 5/6 OVERs, and both their last games have gone wayyyyy over, yet the total is set at 37.5 only.

Dallas Vs. San Diego:
San Diego is regarded as a top 3-5 team in the league. Winners of 7 in a row, and covering 4 of their last 5, San Diego is considered the hottest team in the league. The public knows about Romo's December troubles, however it was the defense that cost them the game last week. I'm not sure if this line is setup with Dallas as a favorite because of the usual overinflation of America's Team, or if Vegas really perceives Dallas to be the better team. Earlier this week the public was all over the dog in this matchup, but they've given some back to Dallas during the week.

**One telling stat I heard on the Radio is San Diego is sometihng like 13-0 in the past 3 years in December. This reminds me of the "Romo has never lost in November" stat that came out the week of the Green Bay game. In this matchup I lean Dallas.

[Daws1089]

Seahawks +6.5

I don't think the books will get many takers on this dog line. People thought Houston was finally a playoff team this year, but nope they are 5-7 and in the midst of another crap season. The loss last week really hurt them and I wouldn't be surprised if they lay an egg in this game. Yea Seattle blows on the road, but they have won 2 games in a row. It's not like Houston is some difficult place to play or anything. It's not like Houston is some good team either. They have a ton of flaws like their entire defense pretty much. So with people thinking the Texans need this game to stay alive in the playoffs and playing the road weary Seahawks why is the line -6.5? Seems weak to me. I think this is a seahawks bet or nothing.

[Daws1089]

KC/BUFF Under 37.5


These two defenses are horrible. KC is the 31st ranked defense overall, but Buffalo's offense is garbage. So why is this total set below 40? It's because the offenses are garbage too. I can see this being a close game throughout with a lot of running. I lean under. What's up with Buffalo being a road fave too? I guess because KC is just that horrible.

[Daws1089]

Linesmakers still havent budged at all on the DAL/SD line despite the heavy amount of takers on SD at +3. This tells me the books are fine with that and are welcoming as much moeny as people want to throw at SD because they like dallas to win this one.


Benagals +6.5

Anyone else think Minny hits a little speed bump ging into the end of the season? The loss last week is understandable, but Minny has played a really weak schedule and I think is a product of that. Bengals are a solid team they can run the ball and play good defense. They can also throw the ball when needed, but they have been trying to prove a point over the last few weeks by running the crap out of the ball. This is a big test for minny and im not sure they win this one.


Dolphins/Jags Over 44

Seems awfully high for these two teams doesn't it? Teams that can stop the run and also run it a lot with a total of 44? Why not 40 or even 39 for that style of play? I felt like this would be a borefest, but this line has me thinking over. Any thoughts?

Bears +4

Packers have been cruising and everyone knows that. They beat DAL, SF, DET on Thanksgiving, and BALT on mnf. The Packers are not a great road team and I think they are a little over valued now since they've gone on this 4 game win streak. Their defense is good and people realize that now so it may be time to go against this team. Only problem is backing Cutler. The Bears need this game, although they are almost out of the hunt. They also have revenge in this game. Bears or a no play I think.

Arizona -3.5

Some confidence in this line by the oddsmakers. The 3.5 on the road tells me they like Arizona. AZ has a chance to lock up the division with a win on mnf. Kurt Warner has played out of his mind in his last 4 games something like 12 tds to 0 int. I like SF and think they have potential to become a division winner, but not this year. They don't have enough of a pass rush to disrupt warner and their offense is not running the ball as well since they moved to the spread offense.

[Underdog88]

Benagals +6.5

Anyone else think Minny hits a little speed bump ging into the end of the season? The loss last week is understandable, but Minny has played a really weak schedule and I think is a product of that. Bengals are a solid team they can run the ball and play good defense. They can also throw the ball when needed, but they have been trying to prove a point over the last few weeks by running the crap out of the ball. This is a big test for minny and im not sure they win this one.

Been looking at the Bengals all week. My one problem is that in all likelyhood the Vikings will be able to shut down the run game, which is the reason Cincy has been thriving. With two really solid defenses and Minny off a blowout loss I would expect a much lower scoring game here... thinking 20-17 type result.

[Underdog88]

I'm thinking this is also a letdown week for the Dolphins... off a win @ home vs NE, they are now back in the hunt. Watching the game I thought it was obvious the Patriots gave that game away. Now the Fins are back on the road where they are just 2-4 with wins @NYJ and @CAR. They lost rather badly to the Bills last road game, Henne threw picks left and right. Word is they may be scrapping the Wildcat, because without Brown it has been ineffective (they were repeatedly booed while running it last week). The Jags are a pretty solid home team this season going 5-1 so far, with an understandable loss to the Cardinals. I like Garrard's ability to protect the ball, he has 9 tds and 4 ints @home. This could be a close one with turnovers being the difference, so I'm leanning heavy towards the home team to get things done.

[Underdog88]

The Jets are laying points on the road lol. TB should have won convincingly last week vs Carolina, but they had twenty or so turnovers in the redzone. I'm still bitter about it, would have made that play every time but was rewarded with a loss. I don't think I can back TB this week because of it, but under no circumstances would I consider backing Clemens on the road as a favorite. The Jets are not a good football team, and it wouldn't surprise me to see them lose out the rest of the season. They are also going to be without cb Dwight Lowery, and I think Sheppard is on the downslide of his career. This is also TB's most winnable game left on the board. Maybe I will play on TB ML small....

[Underdog88]

Bears +4

Packers have been cruising and everyone knows that. They beat DAL, SF, DET on Thanksgiving, and BALT on mnf. The Packers are not a great road team and I think they are a little over valued now since they've gone on this 4 game win streak. Their defense is good and people realize that now so it may be time to go against this team. Only problem is backing Cutler. The Bears need this game, although they are almost out of the hunt. They also have revenge in this game. Bears or a no play I think.

I wouldn't bet the Bears with your money. They very well could win, but I get the feeling I would regret playing the Bears immediately after kickoff lol. They haven't beaten a team with a winning record this year....

[Underdog88]

One dog I think gets blown out of the water is Denver. They have played great on the road for the most part, but I think they are outmatched vs the Colts here. The high line paired with close games the Colts have been playing makes it a tough play, but I think this is just a bad spot for Denver. Second straight road game, last time they were in this spot they were blown out by Baltimore. Off a very easy blowout win @ KC, where they were able to run all over the Chief. If theyget behind and are forced to throw it could get ugly....

[recovering77]

At first look, I really wanted to take Cincy too. I've been waiting for Minnesota to hit a bump in the road all season, as they have been covering machines. It was a great spot last week for Arizona coming in as a 3 point home underdog with Warner fresh off a concussion.

Then I look at the line and think it's way too high. The line opens at 7 and moves down to 6.5. Cincy is a very very popular pick this week among the gambling community. They are something like 7-0 this year as an underdog, and something like 5-0 as a favorite. I don't like how the public has taken notice of this, and many are picking Cincy as their POW. However, Minny has covered like 4 of their last 5, and Cincy is coming in off 3 consecutive ATS losses, so this line may be justified there.

This will probably end up being a no play for me. I might just throw some Cincy's way, cuz betting against Minnesota has cost me so much money this year.

As far as Chicago goes, it is a very scary pick. The #1 consensus play has lost something like 6 weeks in a row. I haven't seen a streak like that in a very long time. It's like clockwork. Vegas may be trying to throw the sharps a curveball this week, cuz this line just seems way off. ESPN Insider has the line at 7.5. With a hook like that, I find it shocking that this line opened at 3. Chicago hasn't covered in like 2 months, so this line seems especially fishy.

[BetterKing]

I agree with you on the lowly Bears< they have stunk it up this year, but they can beat Green Bay. I capped it twice and kept getting Green Bay by 3. However, this also goes against an amazing stat that if you can cap a winner, they should cover close to 6 in most cases. Either way, I will be taking a chance on the Bears. Good Luck!