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Monday's Selection ...
Note:
I gave you 3 underdog outright winners Saturday with Kansas St, Stanford, and Purdue.
I follow that up with two more dogs on Sunday with Carolina, and the big play on the Chargers, and even a miracle pick six cover with Seattle as the free pick.
The entire day however was about San Diego winning the game outright.
The last Chargers drive was the epitome of the Giants season as I illustrated in my breakdown on Sunday. They went right down the field without resistance.
Truth of the matter: Chargers were in control of that game from start to finish. There's your 5 point dog to win outright making it a perfect 5-0 weekend.
The NFL season has hit it's halfway mark, and I'm telling you right now that I am just getting this train started. You will see nothing but consistency in a very positive way.
We have arrived at the launch pad, and we are now ready to take off as this 2nd half of the season is going to be epic.
We will keep building up for the bowl games, NFL playoffs and you already know my "Super Bowl" history.
It's about to get really good, really fast. Simple as that.
Now watch me bang home this Monday winner and make it a 3-day run of +100 dimes and considering how on fire I have been with weeknight college football winners, it's shaping up to be another big winning week.
Long way to go here in 2009. Long way to go. Let's keep the winning momentum going tonight.
15 DIME - PITTSBURGH STEELERS - (if line is 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 3. If it's 3 you buy the 1/2 and lay 2 1/2.) Who do you trust tonight? Ben Rothliesberger of Kyle Orton?
For my dollar, it's Big Ben. Simple as that.
Last week the Broncos were exposed by an aggressive Ravens defense that had a week to prepare for Mr.Orton and the Denver offense.
Baltimore flat owned Orton all day long with a variety of blitzes, stunts and just an all out great gameplan defensively.
Now the Steelers come in here off a bye week, and if you don't think for one second Dick Lebeau won't have an even better gameplan for Orton, then you don't know Lebeau.
I am not taking anything away from their 6-1 start, it's been great but if you really examine it, they are a couple of plays away from being 4-3.
They should have never beaten Cincinnati with the deflected pass, Dallas was 1st and goal inside the last minute and couldn't punch it in.
And the Patriots blew a 14 point 2nd half lead which is something a Bill Belichick coached team just doesn't do.
My question is this. If the Broncos were 4-3 what would this line be tonight? Steelers -6...-7?
Value in this game tonight sides with the Steelers.
Now I know what you are thinking. You are thinking the Steelers haven't played anybody. Only 3 of their 7 opponents have a better than .500 record while the Broncos played 5 of 7.
So you are correct in your thinking. The Steelers have had it pretty easy so far this year but you can't discount the advantage Pittsburgh has coming in here off their bye week. It is huge.
Would I be tempted to take Denver if the Steelers didn't have 2 weeks to prepare? Oh most certainly.
But you give me the defending Super Bowl champs 2 weeks to gameplan you, and I will gladly roll the dice with Pittsburgh every time.
I just can't get the Ravens game out of my mind. Just can't.
The Broncos offense was just terrible and what concerned me even more was Denver had 2 weeks to prepare a great gameplan in which to attack the Ravens. I'm talking 2 full weeks to prepare and here is what you got.
10 drives total for the game with 8 of those drives ending with a punt. 3 times they went 3 and out. 2 times they picked up one first down and then punted. 200 total yards for the game. 3 of 13 on 3rd down. Average yards per play 3.4 yards.
You were able to do all that with 2 weeks to prepare!?!? A lot of teams start off the year being perceived as much better than they are until they start really facing good defenses at which time your offensive weaknesses start getting exposed.
I mean, let's be honest here folks, he is still Kyle Orton and he will never be confused with John Elway.
As far as Pittsburgh is concerned, they seem to always peak in November and December. It is their mantra to start slow and finish strong.
The fact of the matter is Denver will not be able to consistently run the football which means, just like last week, winning this game will fall squarley on the shoulders of Orton. He failed miserably last week and he will again fail miserably this week.
He couldn't do a thing versus the Ravens defense last week, and I saw nothing in that game which leads me to believe he will be able to do a thing against Pittsburgh's defense tonight.
And your 3rd string right tackle faces Harrison all night long. Ouch.
Bottom line is this. If Kyle Orton plays perfect football tonight and beats me, I will tip my cap to him but quite frankly I don't see that happening.
Since he took over as head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Mike Tomlin has coached his team 4 times on Monday night. He is 4-0.
Let's go ahead and make him 5-0 as the Steelers defense makes it a long night for Mr. Orton and Big Ben does what Big Ben always does, come up big in the big game in front of the Monday night crowd
Monday's Selection ...
Note:
I gave you 3 underdog outright winners Saturday with Kansas St, Stanford, and Purdue.
I follow that up with two more dogs on Sunday with Carolina, and the big play on the Chargers, and even a miracle pick six cover with Seattle as the free pick.
The entire day however was about San Diego winning the game outright.
The last Chargers drive was the epitome of the Giants season as I illustrated in my breakdown on Sunday. They went right down the field without resistance.
Truth of the matter: Chargers were in control of that game from start to finish. There's your 5 point dog to win outright making it a perfect 5-0 weekend.
The NFL season has hit it's halfway mark, and I'm telling you right now that I am just getting this train started. You will see nothing but consistency in a very positive way.
We have arrived at the launch pad, and we are now ready to take off as this 2nd half of the season is going to be epic.
We will keep building up for the bowl games, NFL playoffs and you already know my "Super Bowl" history.
It's about to get really good, really fast. Simple as that.
Now watch me bang home this Monday winner and make it a 3-day run of +100 dimes and considering how on fire I have been with weeknight college football winners, it's shaping up to be another big winning week.
Long way to go here in 2009. Long way to go. Let's keep the winning momentum going tonight.
15 DIME - PITTSBURGH STEELERS - (if line is 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 3. If it's 3 you buy the 1/2 and lay 2 1/2.) Who do you trust tonight? Ben Rothliesberger of Kyle Orton?
For my dollar, it's Big Ben. Simple as that.
Last week the Broncos were exposed by an aggressive Ravens defense that had a week to prepare for Mr.Orton and the Denver offense.
Baltimore flat owned Orton all day long with a variety of blitzes, stunts and just an all out great gameplan defensively.
Now the Steelers come in here off a bye week, and if you don't think for one second Dick Lebeau won't have an even better gameplan for Orton, then you don't know Lebeau.
I am not taking anything away from their 6-1 start, it's been great but if you really examine it, they are a couple of plays away from being 4-3.
They should have never beaten Cincinnati with the deflected pass, Dallas was 1st and goal inside the last minute and couldn't punch it in.
And the Patriots blew a 14 point 2nd half lead which is something a Bill Belichick coached team just doesn't do.
My question is this. If the Broncos were 4-3 what would this line be tonight? Steelers -6...-7?
Value in this game tonight sides with the Steelers.
Now I know what you are thinking. You are thinking the Steelers haven't played anybody. Only 3 of their 7 opponents have a better than .500 record while the Broncos played 5 of 7.
So you are correct in your thinking. The Steelers have had it pretty easy so far this year but you can't discount the advantage Pittsburgh has coming in here off their bye week. It is huge.
Would I be tempted to take Denver if the Steelers didn't have 2 weeks to prepare? Oh most certainly.
But you give me the defending Super Bowl champs 2 weeks to gameplan you, and I will gladly roll the dice with Pittsburgh every time.
I just can't get the Ravens game out of my mind. Just can't.
The Broncos offense was just terrible and what concerned me even more was Denver had 2 weeks to prepare a great gameplan in which to attack the Ravens. I'm talking 2 full weeks to prepare and here is what you got.
10 drives total for the game with 8 of those drives ending with a punt. 3 times they went 3 and out. 2 times they picked up one first down and then punted. 200 total yards for the game. 3 of 13 on 3rd down. Average yards per play 3.4 yards.
You were able to do all that with 2 weeks to prepare!?!? A lot of teams start off the year being perceived as much better than they are until they start really facing good defenses at which time your offensive weaknesses start getting exposed.
I mean, let's be honest here folks, he is still Kyle Orton and he will never be confused with John Elway.
As far as Pittsburgh is concerned, they seem to always peak in November and December. It is their mantra to start slow and finish strong.
The fact of the matter is Denver will not be able to consistently run the football which means, just like last week, winning this game will fall squarley on the shoulders of Orton. He failed miserably last week and he will again fail miserably this week.
He couldn't do a thing versus the Ravens defense last week, and I saw nothing in that game which leads me to believe he will be able to do a thing against Pittsburgh's defense tonight.
And your 3rd string right tackle faces Harrison all night long. Ouch.
Bottom line is this. If Kyle Orton plays perfect football tonight and beats me, I will tip my cap to him but quite frankly I don't see that happening.
Since he took over as head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Mike Tomlin has coached his team 4 times on Monday night. He is 4-0.
Let's go ahead and make him 5-0 as the Steelers defense makes it a long night for Mr. Orton and Big Ben does what Big Ben always does, come up big in the big game in front of the Monday night crowd
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