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TB +9.5 -115
+9.5 home dog off a bye week to a mediocre GB team? Really? I know TB blows, but taking a home dog of this large off a bye has been statistically one of the best plays in the NFL since the bye week was introduced.
TB with 2 weeks to get Johnson more integrated into the offense too, and I liked the way he looked when he came in at Philly (haven't seen him play after that), granted the game was already out of hand.
CHI -1.5
Historically strong spot for Arizona. Not. Warm weather west coast team playing on the road at 1pm in a cold/bad weather city, and Arizona is amongst the worst in this area. I'm not buying that a 1pm win over warm weather Jacksonville or an 8pm win over the struggling Giants have done anything to rectify all that.
Not only that, Arizona has done NOTHING all year except beat some bad/struggling teams. Bears weakness on D seems to be stopping the run too. Arizona can't run the ball for ****.
NE -10.5
Miami got basically manhandled last week vs NYJ but won because of the 2 100+ yd kickoff returns for TD's, turnovers, and because the Jets blow in general.
I can pretty much assure those things will not happen against NE, and NE with 2 weeks to prepare for a Miami team who has a rookie QB (look up Belichick's past record vs this), and I see no real reason to believe Miami will be able to hang against an NE team (whom I hate to say) is improving every week, especially on defense.
I see NE jumping out early, forcing Miami to throw, the turnovers will come, and it will be all she wrote for Henne and the 'Fins.
WASH +9.5
Hopefully even a poor WASH team can show up w/ 2 weeks to prepare. I said it before and I'm saying it again, ATL and what they've done this year doesn't really light my fire as anything more than an average team. WASH showed improvement (imo) on MNF against Philly after crippling themselves early with a big play against their D and turnovers, and I think they have every chance of competing to the end in this one if their heads are in the right place.
JAX -7 -105
KC is at the bottom of the league in both offense and defense. They blow. Jacksonville has been surprisingly better than I expected this year, and I think they will run run run till the Chiefs can stop it, which imo won't be anytime this season. Pick the winner situation here, and I'm not picking the feeble Chiefs.
CAR +13 -115
Key to the game, Carolina has one of the best pass defenses in the NFL , if not the best (last I checked....i'm really not one for basing my plays on stats). They showed it vs ARIZ and I believe they show it again this week vs NO. This line is a joke. CAR has their heads screwed on straight again after "upsetting" Arizona, has the talent to win against most teams, and I wouldn't be shocked to see CAR pull off another big upset against a divisional rival that they basically own, and who isn't going undefeated.
NYG -5
Funny how the Giants went from super bowl to toilet bowl in the minds of the public. IMO they're somewhere in between.
SD's 4 wins have been over OAKLAND x2, KC and MIA @ home. Please. The Giants are no super bowl contender, but neither is SD. SD can't stop anyone on D other than Oakland and KC, and the Giants will expose them big time today imo on that side of the ball. Even a half mediocre effort from the NYG defense will get them the SU win today, imo, as the NYG should be able to put up plenty of points, so i'm picking the winner.
Beating up on bad teams is what the Giants do, and imo SD is indeed bordering on bad.
PHI -3 +100
I can't imagine ROMO doesn't have a few turnovers here in primetime against an opportunistic PHI defense, and if he does, that should decide this one, as turnovers pretty much always do. He has gone 3 straight games without an INT they say on ESPN. Lets see if he can hold true to that tonight against PHI. With his history, i'm banking on no.
3 units each
CIN +3 -120
Yippee. The Raisins with a nice win last week over an undefeated team, but in a very favorable spot....at home, off the bye and with major motivation to knock off an undefeated team....and now they are "back". I was glad to hear that, because now the Bungles are off the bye, at home, and dare I say have the better defense. Line hasn't caught up to these 2 teams yet if you ask me, that's why Baltimore is (wrongly, imo) favored. In general, the public still sees CIN as at least mildly crappy and definitely sees BALT as a serious contender....neither of which are true.
Both teams motivated here, but I think both that the "up and coming" Bungles are the better team, and they sweep the season series today....
TEN +4.5
Luckily for TEN, their defensive struggles have been mainly against the pass, and passing all over them is something SF will have a very hard time lining up and doing. I think TEN used their bye week to turn things around and will be a tough team to contend with from here on out, while SF is still a few players and a year away from being that team.
A piss poor start for TEN and a hot one for SF have this line way off imo. Tennessee is still the better team here if you ask me, and the +4.5 is a nice gift. I feel it should be a pick em or so, due to home field for SF.
2 units each
CIN ml +120
TEN ml +175
1 unit each
As far as the HOU/INDY game, as while HOU can imo hang with them, HOU never shows up for 4 qtrs. I'm not going to try to pick ahead of time which qtr or half, HOU is going to show up and play, so I'll wait and see if i can get what I feel is a favorable 2H line on one of them....
Seattle/Detroit....even I won't bet on that ****fest....
+9.5 home dog off a bye week to a mediocre GB team? Really? I know TB blows, but taking a home dog of this large off a bye has been statistically one of the best plays in the NFL since the bye week was introduced.
TB with 2 weeks to get Johnson more integrated into the offense too, and I liked the way he looked when he came in at Philly (haven't seen him play after that), granted the game was already out of hand.
CHI -1.5
Historically strong spot for Arizona. Not. Warm weather west coast team playing on the road at 1pm in a cold/bad weather city, and Arizona is amongst the worst in this area. I'm not buying that a 1pm win over warm weather Jacksonville or an 8pm win over the struggling Giants have done anything to rectify all that.
Not only that, Arizona has done NOTHING all year except beat some bad/struggling teams. Bears weakness on D seems to be stopping the run too. Arizona can't run the ball for ****.
NE -10.5
Miami got basically manhandled last week vs NYJ but won because of the 2 100+ yd kickoff returns for TD's, turnovers, and because the Jets blow in general.
I can pretty much assure those things will not happen against NE, and NE with 2 weeks to prepare for a Miami team who has a rookie QB (look up Belichick's past record vs this), and I see no real reason to believe Miami will be able to hang against an NE team (whom I hate to say) is improving every week, especially on defense.
I see NE jumping out early, forcing Miami to throw, the turnovers will come, and it will be all she wrote for Henne and the 'Fins.
WASH +9.5
Hopefully even a poor WASH team can show up w/ 2 weeks to prepare. I said it before and I'm saying it again, ATL and what they've done this year doesn't really light my fire as anything more than an average team. WASH showed improvement (imo) on MNF against Philly after crippling themselves early with a big play against their D and turnovers, and I think they have every chance of competing to the end in this one if their heads are in the right place.
JAX -7 -105
KC is at the bottom of the league in both offense and defense. They blow. Jacksonville has been surprisingly better than I expected this year, and I think they will run run run till the Chiefs can stop it, which imo won't be anytime this season. Pick the winner situation here, and I'm not picking the feeble Chiefs.
CAR +13 -115
Key to the game, Carolina has one of the best pass defenses in the NFL , if not the best (last I checked....i'm really not one for basing my plays on stats). They showed it vs ARIZ and I believe they show it again this week vs NO. This line is a joke. CAR has their heads screwed on straight again after "upsetting" Arizona, has the talent to win against most teams, and I wouldn't be shocked to see CAR pull off another big upset against a divisional rival that they basically own, and who isn't going undefeated.
NYG -5
Funny how the Giants went from super bowl to toilet bowl in the minds of the public. IMO they're somewhere in between.
SD's 4 wins have been over OAKLAND x2, KC and MIA @ home. Please. The Giants are no super bowl contender, but neither is SD. SD can't stop anyone on D other than Oakland and KC, and the Giants will expose them big time today imo on that side of the ball. Even a half mediocre effort from the NYG defense will get them the SU win today, imo, as the NYG should be able to put up plenty of points, so i'm picking the winner.
Beating up on bad teams is what the Giants do, and imo SD is indeed bordering on bad.
PHI -3 +100
I can't imagine ROMO doesn't have a few turnovers here in primetime against an opportunistic PHI defense, and if he does, that should decide this one, as turnovers pretty much always do. He has gone 3 straight games without an INT they say on ESPN. Lets see if he can hold true to that tonight against PHI. With his history, i'm banking on no.
3 units each
CIN +3 -120
Yippee. The Raisins with a nice win last week over an undefeated team, but in a very favorable spot....at home, off the bye and with major motivation to knock off an undefeated team....and now they are "back". I was glad to hear that, because now the Bungles are off the bye, at home, and dare I say have the better defense. Line hasn't caught up to these 2 teams yet if you ask me, that's why Baltimore is (wrongly, imo) favored. In general, the public still sees CIN as at least mildly crappy and definitely sees BALT as a serious contender....neither of which are true.
Both teams motivated here, but I think both that the "up and coming" Bungles are the better team, and they sweep the season series today....
TEN +4.5
Luckily for TEN, their defensive struggles have been mainly against the pass, and passing all over them is something SF will have a very hard time lining up and doing. I think TEN used their bye week to turn things around and will be a tough team to contend with from here on out, while SF is still a few players and a year away from being that team.
A piss poor start for TEN and a hot one for SF have this line way off imo. Tennessee is still the better team here if you ask me, and the +4.5 is a nice gift. I feel it should be a pick em or so, due to home field for SF.
2 units each
CIN ml +120
TEN ml +175
1 unit each
As far as the HOU/INDY game, as while HOU can imo hang with them, HOU never shows up for 4 qtrs. I'm not going to try to pick ahead of time which qtr or half, HOU is going to show up and play, so I'll wait and see if i can get what I feel is a favorable 2H line on one of them....
Seattle/Detroit....even I won't bet on that ****fest....
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