WEEK 7 DISCUSSION

[hodown]

Was waiting for someone to start it up, but I guess I'll do the dirty work.

Minny @ Pitt -4
This is probably my favorite play on the board. Minny's road games have consisted of Detroit, Cleveland, and StL so far, not exactly difficult. In their 3 games against decent opponents (all at home), they've given up an average of 26 ppg. Only one team has held Peterson in check up to this point (Packers), and Pitt has the number 2 rush defense in the NFL. Favre definitely has the ability to beat teams, but he also has the ability to lose it as well, and as a defense going against Minny I'd rather get beat by Favre than Peterson. Nobody has held Minny under 27 and when if/when a Favre offense doesn't move the ball, Favre starts chuckin **** up. Pitt has won 9 in a row at home.

Atlanta @ Dallas -4
Dallas off a bye, just seems like one they absolutely have to have. I guess in a sense that could be a bad thing for Wade, but looking at Dallas' results and they're not as bad as one would think. It's also a play against the Falcons, who couldn't move the ball whatsoever against a Bears defense that yielded over 300 yards passing to Detroit and 240 yards passing to a Seneca Wallace led Seahawk outfit. I'm a Bear fan and they're playing guys on defense I've never heard of, yet Ryan could only muster 185 and two of those TD's came on busted coverages, and their 3rd came on a shortfield late. I don't think ATL is a bad team, but they go in and beat an SF team playing a bit over their heads, they hold serve at home by 7 against a Bear team turning it over 3 times inside the 10, and now all of the sudden the public pounds them at 67% at Dallas? I'm not buying that.

[every1bets]

Hey whats up "hodown" just wanted to say nice picks, and I agree with both of them. Dallas should win this at home after a bye and I also think Pitt is def the better team, and with the home feild advantage it makes it that much better......

Also this is my first post on the forums here, so i wanna say hi to everyone, and good luck!!

[daft_picks]

I think the Pittsburg play looks really solid, if we're lucky the line may even come down a bit cause I bet the public will back the undefeated team as a dog. Also really like the OVER 45 in this game, maybe even more than the side.

I hate laying points with Dallas, but your analysis seems pretty spot on. Cowboys off a bye, @ home, in what amounts to a must-win for them, probably the right side in a pick-the-winner situation.

Two interesting home dogs in Raiders +6 vs Jets and Fins +6.5 vs Saints. I am especially interested in the latter, I think this line will climb as the public pounds the saints but this is a total sandwich game for them. They just had a huge victory against the Giants and next week square of against huge rival Falcons on MNF. This game just doesn't matter to them nearly as much as it does the Dolphins, and if it continues to climb I will likely fade the public on this one. (not for much of course cause betting against Brees is always scary. He was held to zero TD's against the Jets and Bills though FYI).

Big chalk of the weekend goes to NE -15 vs Tampa and Indy -13.5 vs STL. Despite the huge number of points I could see these teams covering easily.

49ers +3 @ Houston is intriguing. The Texans have yet to put together back-to-back good games and usually don't do well as favorites. I think the 49ers will be focused and ready to bounce back after that debacle versus the Falcons. And with Gore back in the picture they should be able to get that run game going easily.

Giants -7 vs Cards seems too easy, but I may have to play it anyways. @ home the Giants will look to bounce back after their Saints implosion, and while the Cardinals are doing fine I don't think they'll be able to keep up this time. OVER 46 looks good too.

Those are some initial leans of mine. Let's pick some good ones this week! :thumbs:

[Jcb890]

I posted this already in its own thread, but I might as well post in here as well to discuss...

My thoughts are going with a 13-pt. 4-team teaser:

SD vs. KC = SD +7.5

The Chargers are coming off of a very disappointing loss at home against the Broncos. Who thought the Broncos would be so good to start the year? Did anyone else not believe that the Broncos were legit until the last couple of weeks? KC is coming off of a win against the hapless Redskins. Bottom line here is that SD is a much better team than the Chiefs are here, even if they are on the road. I don't see a way that KC possibly beats SD by more than 7, I think SD wins actually, but will they cover the normal 5.5 line, I'm not sure. That could be another play to think about.

IND vs. STL = IND -1

Indy is undefeated and coming off of a bye so they should be ready to rock. The Rams are still winless and still horrendous. The -14 line for the Colts is a little high for my liking, but that's not out of reach.

GB vs. CLE = GB +6 (wtf, Bodog has this crossed out now... why?)

Green Bay is on the road here and 7 point favorites on the normal spread. I can see them covering that, but with the Browns at home, they've got to get it together at least somewhat at some point right? Maybe not, probably not. That's another spot where the -7 may not be too big and may be a decent play, IMO. GB is far superior to CLE and I don't see CLE keeping it real close.

NE vs. TB = NE -2

New England is coming off of a blowout win against the winless Titans at home. TB is coming off of a loss (surprise surprise) against the pathetic Panthers, but at least it was within a touchdown, right? The normal line right now is -15, which seems like a lot, but if the Pats offense is clicking now (hopefully they are since I'm a Pats fan) then laying 15 points against TB is no problem as it should be a blowout. How do the Pats not win by 2 or more points? I'm not really sure how. I don't like that Edelman is out though, I think that hurts them some, now they'll have to use Aiken, who looked decent last game, but hasn't done anything other than that.

[daft_picks]

Hey Jcb, just wanted to throw a quick comment out there about teasers. Believe me I love them, play them all the time (probably too much), but the truth is they are kind of sucker bets. When you play a 13 team teaser you need 4 games to go your way to get a win, and I'm pretty sure you're still paying juice maybe -120 or something for the play, so you're not even getting good odds. All it takes is one upset and you lose the whole play!

I don't think you should totally avoid it, just don't make it your only play. And also I often think it is better to take the + side and add the points for some games. Personally I'd almost rather have the Browns +20 because they have been keeping games closer than normal lately with Anderson in at QB (3-0 ATS) and despite GB"s shutout of Detroit this weekend they played really sloppy. Really just be careful is all I'm saying, luck to you :thumbs:

[Jcb890]

Non-Teaser thoughts...

Indy vs. Rams = Indy -14

Pats vs. Bucs = NE -15

Packers vs. Browns = Packers -7

Giants vs. Cards = Giants -7

I think the Giants are the much better team here. They are coming off of a loss to the Saints where they pretty much got dominated. I think their D is too strong and will force some Warner turnovers (probably a couple fumbles) and their offense will put up some good numbers against the Arizona D. Not that they are horrible, but the Giants have a great offense.

MNF - Eagles vs. 'Skins = Eagles -7

After sucking it up last weekend, the Eagles have to be pissed and want to have a good game, right? The Redskins are pathetic and seem to be in shambles right now. Perhaps a 6-pt. teaser with the Eagles and the over to bring it to Eagles -1 and an OVER of 32 looks pretty decent.

[Jcb890]

Hey Jcb, just wanted to throw a quick comment out there about teasers. Believe me I love them, play them all the time (probably too much), but the truth is they are kind of sucker bets. When you play a 13 team teaser you need 4 games to go your way to get a win, and I'm pretty sure you're still paying juice maybe -120 or something for the play, so you're not even getting good odds. All it takes is one upset and you lose the whole play!

I don't think you should totally avoid it, just don't make it your only play. And also I often think it is better to take the + side and add the points for some games. Personally I'd almost rather have the Browns +20 because they have been keeping games closer than normal lately with Anderson in at QB (3-0 ATS) and despite GB"s shutout of Detroit this weekend they played really sloppy. Really just be careful is all I'm saying, luck to you :thumbs:

That's a good point. Thanks for the tip(s). This happened to me last week. I should have just went with the over in the NYG vs. NO game, which I was thinking of doing, but instead went with a 4-team 13-pt. teaser including Philly, which failed on me. I was less than pleased with those results.

[sk35]

I look up the weather in Pitt, it's gonna rain all weekend. The field is gonna get wet and ugly cuz Pitt Panther play there on Sat too. Maybe it'll help the low score.

About the teaser, it may look good against the bad teams. But this is NFL, the home dogs might win outright on any given Sunday, especially when they play division rivals. It also the West Coast teams come to different time zone play at noon trend.

[hodown]

Agree with the 49ers, they are intriguing there. As you said Houston is a tale of two very different teams. First half against Arizona they stink and 2nd half they come out firing. With that said I think it's a small moneyline play on SF or no play. Which Houston team are you gonna get? How good are the Niners? Who knows.

I think Miami is in a good spot against the Saints, but the Saints look tough as hell right now. Miami's pass defense is less than stellar, and I think there's better options than waiting for NO to falter. Could be a good over play.

Regarding the teaser, I like KC +17.5 and Cleveland +20. KC is more than capable, losing @ home by 3 to Oakland, 11 to NYG, and 6 to Dallas. Cleveland has been very respectable last 3 games, losing to Cinci @ home in OT, winning @ Buffalo and losing by 13 @ Pitt. The Packers have 3 wins over Chicago, Detroit, and STL, so I think they'll be in a dogfight just to win that game.

[DukiesBaby]

Nyg -7
I really love this play this week, u get the giants coming off a really poor performance to a bounce back, and also you get an arizona team on back to back road games, first in seattle and now traveling across the country to ny... Hopefully giants put pressure on warner in the cold, which he doesn't do well.

Dolphins + 6.5
Really like a home dog who can run run run the football...

49ers +3
This 49ers team is learning how to win and no more distractions now they got crabtree mess settled gore back and ur number 1 pick signed and ready, this team been focused for 2 weeks on this game, I expect a big 49er win.

I also am looking at redskins, and phili going over in the monday night game.

[Underdog88]

Hello all! Have some time this week so I'll try to get involved a little in the discussion....



A couple random thoughts.


GB shouldn't be a big road fave, I don't trust them by any means. Same goes for SD, a road chalk play on them makes zero sense. The Chargers are a slightly above average team. 0-2 ats in the division, plus both wins vs KC last year were by one point. -4.5 on the road begging for Chargers money, but who in their right mind wants to back the Chiefs? Bowe seems to be emerging as the season progresses, he could have a good day. I think for the Ciefs to win/cover, LJ will need to have a decent day. Chargers should be able to throw on KC, over 44 looks like a possibility.

TB+14.5- Patriots off a blowout win, but that was off a road loss and they were in a prime spot. Now right before the bye I'm sure their priority will be to put the game away early and escape with no injuries. As bad as TB is, they have only had 2 losses over 14 pts. Pats haven't won on the road yet, though yeah they will here. Still think this is too many points to lay with not too much motivation. IMO if you like the Pats to cover, maybe a first half, or tt play would be the better option.

Zona- I may be the only person around that thinks Zona has a decent shot at a su win. The Giants secondary to me is suspect as hell. Brees was the first qb they faced (Romo is a chump) and he picked them apart. Zona IMO is better than many believe they are. Giants off a blowout loss which leads many to believe they turn things around @ home this week. Situation favors the Giants, but hell that's why this is a 7 pt line.

Dolphins- How in the world can anyone go against the Saints? I pick them to go to the SB then played against them last week, off a bye and playing in a statement game how dumb. I have mixed feelings about this game. I think the Saints D is coming into this playing way over their heads. Nearly every game the Saints played this season they have been able to jump ahead early, force the opposing team to become one dimensional and abandon the rush. The Eagles had to throw out the run, as did NY. Miami will never be in the position where they have to abandon the run because the whole offense is based around it. Sounds crazy to say this of Miami's offense, but I think as far as matchups go this could be the biggest test of the Saints D so far. The Fins are damn good when they get running, and have put together 2 straight weeks of scoring 31+ pts. Now off a bye and with a chance to jockey for position in the AFC East (they are @ NYJ next week too), they won't be short on motivation. I would think they look to play ball control, but I won't be involved in any under plays in a Saints game. Still mulling over how to play this one...

[daft_picks]

UD, good points about the Zona Giants games. Personally I am only playing the Giants -7 parlayed with the Over 46 cause I don't see how the Cards score less than 20 points against a definitely suspect Giants secondary. That being said I'll take the Giants @ home versus a Cards team that does often not travel well west->east. Both teams are strong against the rush but questionable against the pass. I'll take the Giants run game anyday over the Cards though.

As far as the Saints/Dolphins game goes it is very hard to play against that offense. I could never make an under play either, I mean hell the saints hit the Over 47 in last week's match BY THEMSELVES! Against the Giants! Crazy. I see this being a closer game than many will imagine, if this line moves above 7 I will probably take the Fins.

Another play I am looking at is Chicago as a slight +1 dog to Cincinnati. It's hard for me to back this up in many ways, I just think Cutler has been playing ****ty in primetime games and Forte is due for a (somewhat) good game and this could be it. I just don't trust the Bengals, they lost some key defensive players and Chicago actually played alright last week they just had some HUGE miscues that essentially cost them the game. Tough choice but if I had to make it it would be on the Bears.

[Underdog88]

Minny @ Pitt -4
This is probably my favorite play on the board. Minny's road games have consisted of Detroit, Cleveland, and StL so far, not exactly difficult. In their 3 games against decent opponents (all at home), they've given up an average of 26 ppg. Only one team has held Peterson in check up to this point (Packers), and Pitt has the number 2 rush defense in the NFL. Favre definitely has the ability to beat teams, but he also has the ability to lose it as well, and as a defense going against Minny I'd rather get beat by Favre than Peterson. Nobody has held Minny under 27 and when if/when a Favre offense doesn't move the ball, Favre starts chuckin **** up. Pitt has won 9 in a row at home.

Atlanta @ Dallas -4
Dallas off a bye, just seems like one they absolutely have to have. I guess in a sense that could be a bad thing for Wade, but looking at Dallas' results and they're not as bad as one would think. It's also a play against the Falcons, who couldn't move the ball whatsoever against a Bears defense that yielded over 300 yards passing to Detroit and 240 yards passing to a Seneca Wallace led Seahawk outfit. I'm a Bear fan and they're playing guys on defense I've never heard of, yet Ryan could only muster 185 and two of those TD's came on busted coverages, and their 3rd came on a shortfield late. I don't think ATL is a bad team, but they go in and beat an SF team playing a bit over their heads, they hold serve at home by 7 against a Bear team turning it over 3 times inside the 10, and now all of the sudden the public pounds them at 67% at Dallas? I'm not buying that.

I think both road teams are the better teams here, and after playing the Ravens ML last week I'm done trying to guess when the Vikings lose. I think Dallas doesn't even sniff the playoffs this season, IMO the Falcons win that one....

[tampayay]

I posted this already in its own thread, but I might as well post in here as well to discuss...

My thoughts are going with a 13-pt. 4-team teaser:

SD vs. KC = SD +7.5

The Chargers are coming off of a very disappointing loss at home against the Broncos. Who thought the Broncos would be so good to start the year? Did anyone else not believe that the Broncos were legit until the last couple of weeks? KC is coming off of a win against the hapless Redskins. Bottom line here is that SD is a much better team than the Chiefs are here, even if they are on the road. I don't see a way that KC possibly beats SD by more than 7, I think SD wins actually, but will they cover the normal 5.5 line, I'm not sure. That could be another play to think about.

IND vs. STL = IND -1

Indy is undefeated and coming off of a bye so they should be ready to rock. The Rams are still winless and still horrendous. The -14 line for the Colts is a little high for my liking, but that's not out of reach.

GB vs. CLE = GB +6 (wtf, Bodog has this crossed out now... why?)

Green Bay is on the road here and 7 point favorites on the normal spread. I can see them covering that, but with the Browns at home, they've got to get it together at least somewhat at some point right? Maybe not, probably not. That's another spot where the -7 may not be too big and may be a decent play, IMO. GB is far superior to CLE and I don't see CLE keeping it real close.

NE vs. TB = NE -2

New England is coming off of a blowout win against the winless Titans at home. TB is coming off of a loss (surprise surprise) against the pathetic Panthers, but at least it was within a touchdown, right? The normal line right now is -15, which seems like a lot, but if the Pats offense is clicking now (hopefully they are since I'm a Pats fan) then laying 15 points against TB is no problem as it should be a blowout. How do the Pats not win by 2 or more points? I'm not really sure how. I don't like that Edelman is out though, I think that hurts them some, now they'll have to use Aiken, who looked decent last game, but hasn't done anything other than that.

A little tip: # 1 Do not play teasers if your looking for long term profit #2 Do Not use Bodog when your always eating chalk.

[Jcb890]

Thanks for all the input guys. The more I look at it, the less I like the 4-team teasers. However, I do like a 2-team teaser (6-pt.) with the Pats and Colts.